摩根资产管理的米歇尔表示，坚持今年新兴市场最热门的交易之一仍然是步入2026年的一个最佳策略， 即使美元面临的抛售压力可能会减弱。 摩根资产管理的米歇尔表示，坚持今年新兴市场最热门的交易之一仍然是步入2026年的一个最佳策略， 即使美元面临的抛售压力可能会减弱。 作为该公司全球固定收益主管的米歇尔预计，发展中国家本币债券将进一步上涨，"非常高"的实际收益 率将吸引对该资产类别配置不足的投资者。 一项衡量新兴市场本地政府债券的指数今年回报率超过15%，使其成为全球债券市场表现最佳的领域之 一。美元走软、美联储降息，以及特朗普贸易战给美国带来的不确定性推动了这一上涨。所有这些都推 动投资者转向新兴市场资产。 米歇尔在接受采访时表示，"我不知道我们能否达到今年的回报水平，"但新兴市场本地债券的机会"依 然非常巨大"。 米歇尔表示，在这一领域，他更看好本地债券而非硬通货债券，并特别提到了巴西、南非、墨西哥、匈 牙利、罗马尼亚和印度尼西亚的债券。"这些是我们投资组合中仍然会配置的资产类型。" 责任编辑：李桐 作为该公司全球固定收益主管的米歇尔预计，发展中国家本币债券将进一步上涨，"非常高"的实际收益 率将吸引对该资产类 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, expecting a return of around 8% by mid-2026 due to a potential slowdown in the US economy and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Bonds - The firm anticipates a "high single-digit" increase in emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [1]. - James Lord, head of emerging market FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that Fed rate cuts will exert downward pressure on the dollar, which will help lower US Treasury yields and create a favorable environment for emerging markets [1].

Group 1 - The attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries is declining, leading investors to flock to emerging market bonds, resulting in the lowest spread between high-rated emerging market government and corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries since the financial crisis [1] - The premium of investment-grade emerging market sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasuries has dropped to 1.04 percentage points, while corporate bonds' premium stands at 1.1 percentage points, indicating a tightening of sovereign debt spreads since 2007 [1] - Concerns over the potential impact of Trump's erratic trade policies on emerging markets are diminishing, as investors shift focus to the improving economic conditions in these countries [1] Group 2 - High-rated Gulf countries are becoming regular issuers in the bond market, with Saudi Arabia expected to be one of the largest issuers of emerging market debt for the second consecutive year, utilizing the debt market to navigate low oil prices and fund large projects [2] - The quality of credit ratings in the emerging market space has significantly improved in recent years, contributing to the tightening of investment-grade emerging market spreads relative to historical levels [2] Group 3 - The tightening of spreads reflects a convergence trade between high-quality credit in emerging and developed markets, with global investors increasingly participating in emerging markets, particularly in investment-grade bonds [3] - Emerging markets have been significantly underweighted for years, providing more room for investors to increase their risk exposure in emerging market credit [3] - Some analysts caution that the optimistic sentiment among investors may not account for potential risks such as a sharp decline in global economic growth expectations or inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [3]

Group 1 - The performance of emerging market local currency bonds has reached its best first half in 16 years, driven by a decline in confidence in the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 11% this year [1] - The emerging market local currency bond index has returned over 12% in the first half of the year, outperforming hard currency bonds that rose 5.4% during the same period, marking the strongest increase since 2009 [1] - Significant capital inflows into emerging market bond funds have been observed, with over $21 billion attracted year-to-date, and a weekly inflow of $3.1 billion as of July 2 [1] Group 2 - The outlook for further interest rate cuts in developing countries enhances their attractiveness, with expectations that central banks will have more room to lower rates [4] - Latin American economies have provided some of the best returns, with Mexican local currency bonds (Mbonos) rising 22% and certain Brazilian government bonds yielding over 29% [4] - Improvements in the fundamentals of some emerging markets may lead to new issuers, such as Ghana planning to resume domestic bond issuance in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Investment preferences are shifting towards Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, indicating a re-evaluation of exposure to the US market [7] - The process of re-learning about local currency bonds is expected to take time for investors who have not engaged with them for a while [7] - Key countries for overweight positions in emerging market local currency bonds include Colombia, the Philippines, and South Africa [7]

Group 1: Emerging Market Bond Investment Outlook - The trend of a weakening US dollar is expected to positively impact emerging market local currency bonds, leading to a favorable outlook for these investments [1][3] - There is a shift in global investment from US dollar assets to emerging market assets, driven by the declining appeal of US Treasury bonds and the volatility in long-term bonds across the US, Japan, and Europe [1][3] - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to the potential for positive returns as the dollar depreciates against local currencies [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The influence of US tariff policies on emerging market bonds is considered limited, with most Asian corporate bonds being less exposed to large-scale exports to the US [4][5] - Market sentiment may cause temporary fluctuations in Asian corporate bonds, but the long-term impact of tariffs is not as significant as initially perceived [5] Group 3: Attractive Emerging Market Economies - Latin American, Southeast Asian, and Indian bonds are highlighted as promising investment categories within emerging markets [6][7] - Latin American bonds are particularly attractive due to high credit spreads and favorable economic growth prospects, with expectations of monetary easing in the region [6] - Indian bonds are gaining attention due to their inclusion in global bond indices and strong GDP growth, despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4: Southeast Asia Bond Market - Southeast Asian local currency and dollar-denominated bonds are viewed positively, supported by strong domestic consumption and manageable inflation [8] - Companies in sectors such as real estate, consumer goods, and renewable energy in Southeast Asia are identified as having solid fundamentals and low export dependency, making their bonds attractive [8] Group 5: China Bond Market Perspective - China's bond market is regarded positively despite lower yields, with expectations of continued low inflation and monetary easing [9][10] - Chinese local currency bonds are characterized by low volatility and stability, making them appealing as a long-term investment option [10] - The demand for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is expected to rise as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the lower volatility compared to other emerging market bonds [11]