美银分析师认为，参考沃尔克时代经验，大幅降息可能触发"大规模再杠杆化"，释放冻结的现金和房地 产市场。 据追风交易台，美国银行(BofA)最新发布的研究投资委员会(RIC)报告显示，在中期选举前夕，美国可 能采取"逃逸速度策略"以刺激经济增长，美联储或将实施更激进的降息政策来解冻房地产市场。 当前美股处于历史高位，但两大资产类别陷入停滞：美国家庭持有自1991年以来最高现金比例，现房销 售跌至金融危机水平，利率是共同原因。 美银认为，若政策制定者采取更激进降息（联邦利率降至1-2%，10年期国债收益率降至3.25%），将利 好小盘价值股、房屋建筑商、长期国债、新兴市场债券和黄金。美银基准情形预期年底10年期国债收益 率4%，联邦利率3.9%，但"逃逸速度"策略可能带来超预期行情。 沃尔克先例：利率急降如何解冻市场 美银分析师指出，当前市场面临两大资产类别的"冰冻"状态：家庭现金持有和房地产市场。数据显示， 美国家庭目前持有19.6万亿美元现金及等价物，相对于负债的比例达到1991年以来最高水平。同时， 2025年现房销售平均400万套，与2008年全球金融危机后水平相似。 历史经验表明，1980年代中期沃尔克 ...

格隆汇10月8日｜道富集团公布，今年9月道富机构投资者风险偏好指标维持正数，连续五个月保持乐观 情绪，上月数值追平今年7月创下的2025年高点，反映投资者持续追逐风险资产，截至9月底长期投资者 在股票、固定收益及现金的资产配置基本维持不变，显示资金仍未回流长存续期债券，固定收益资产持 仓比重仍显著低于长期平均水平，意味着机构投资者仍持续增持高风险资产。 道富市场美洲宏观策略主管Lee Ferridge指出，外汇市场持续出现美元抛售，减持幅度创2021年初以来 新高，资金大举流向利差交易货币，投资者增持加元、澳元等高风险商品货币；股票方面北美市场最受 青睐，美股增持动能推高增持仓位，亚洲新兴市场股市买盘放缓。固定收益产品需求温和，但新兴市场 债券重获追捧。 ...

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Group 1 - The core investment strategy from Citigroup emphasizes an overweight in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector driven by AI, while underweighting UK stocks [3][4] - Capital expenditure in the U.S. has significantly contributed to GDP, surpassing consumer spending, indicating a robust investment environment [4] - Citigroup maintains a neutral stance on government bonds, anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while suggesting a steepening trade strategy for U.S. Treasuries [5] Group 2 - In the credit market, Citigroup is underweighting investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads, which could provide risk protection in case of economic downturns [4][5] - The outlook for emerging market bonds is optimistic, with a preference for markets like Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, especially when the U.S. dollar weakens [5][6] - The dollar is facing structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness against the euro and high-yield emerging market currencies [6] Group 3 - Citigroup holds a neutral view on commodities but advocates for a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a valuable asset for diversification away from the dollar [6][7] - Silver is favored in the current market environment due to its historical performance under specific conditions, such as rising U.S. term premiums and a bullish stock market [7] - Overall, Citigroup expresses a positive outlook on global equity markets, especially in the U.S. due to high exposure to AI, while being cautious on U.S. bonds and maintaining a bearish view on the dollar [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The core viewpoint presented by Dirk Willer emphasizes a positive outlook on the U.S. stock market, driven by a resurgence in capital expenditures and AI-related investments [1][2] - Willer suggests an overweight position in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while recommending underweight positions in UK stocks [1][2] - The analysis indicates that the current capital expenditure cycle in the U.S. is not yet over, with strong guidance for capital spending in the remaining months of the year and into next year [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - Willer advocates for an overweight in emerging market bonds, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, while maintaining a neutral stance on commodities [4][6] - The strategy for government bonds is neutral, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could influence the yield curve [3][6] - In the credit market, a cautious approach is recommended, with a preference for lower exposure to investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads [3] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Insights - The U.S. dollar is facing structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness through the end of the year, particularly against the euro and high-yield emerging market currencies [5][6] - Willer maintains a neutral stance on all commodities but highlights a bullish outlook on gold due to central banks diversifying reserves away from the dollar [6] - Silver is favored as a long position, as it tends to perform well under current market conditions characterized by rising term premiums and a bullish stock market [6]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but rising tariffs may pressure consumer spending, a key growth driver [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate in the US is expected to slow to 1.6% by the end of the year, remaining below trend levels through 2026 [2] - Inflation in the US is rising due to tariffs affecting prices, while Asian economies (excluding Japan) face slowing inflation due to weak growth and low oil prices [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on inflation data, with most Asian central banks expected to ease policies in a low inflation environment [2] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3% to 5% over the next 6 to 9 months, which may lead to a moderate appreciation of most Asian currencies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company prefers emerging markets and Asian stocks over the US market due to more attractive valuations and macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - US high-yield bonds remain attractive with a yield of 7%, while emerging market bonds offer upside potential due to dollar depreciation [1][5] - US Treasury bonds are viewed positively as they provide yield opportunities and can hedge against potential risks from slowing US economic growth [1][5] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The company has adopted a more positive tactical stance on risk assets, particularly stocks and credit, as the impact of tariffs is assessed to be less severe than previously thought [4] - Key indicators such as global purchasing managers' index and corporate earnings forecasts continue to support a positive short-term outlook [4]

在美联储降息预期升温、美元走弱、新兴市场利率较高的背景下，套息交易正强势回归，大量资金涌入 新兴市场。 据美国银行援引EPFR数据的报告显示，过去4个月，专门投资发展中国家债券的全球基金每周都有资金 流入，截至8月6日当周，单周流入规模更是达到17亿美元。 今年以来，23种主要新兴市场货币中有18种兑美元升值。从Neuberger Berman到Aberdeen Group等多家 资产管理公司重新布局巴西、南非、埃及等高收益货币，推动新兴市场资产迎来三年来首次持续资金流 入。 目前套息交易已获得双位数回报率，彭博累计外汇套息交易指数（追踪八种新兴市场货币兑美元的表 现）今年已涨超10%。但多位分析师认为，套息交易可能还有进一步上涨的空间。例如，摩根大通此前 将新兴市场货币和本币债券的评级上调至"增持"，理由是美元走弱趋势在暂停一个月后重新延续。 美元疲软为套息交易扫清障碍 套息交易是指投资者借入低利率货币（比如未来可能降息的美元，借钱成本低），换成高利率货币进行 投资（比如巴西、墨西哥等新兴市场货币，持有能赚更高利息），从而赚取利差收益。同时如果高息货 币还对美元升值，能赚更多。 第一，美国就业数据疲弱加剧了 ...

Global Market Outlook - Morgan Asset Management's report highlights significant uncertainty in the global economy and financial markets due to U.S. trade, fiscal policies, and geopolitical risks, suggesting investors should build resilient portfolios with global asset allocation to diversify returns and reduce volatility [1] China Equity Market - The report anticipates a structural slowdown in China's economic growth in the second half of the year due to weak confidence in households and businesses, ongoing real estate sector challenges, and deflationary pressures [2] - A "barbell strategy" combining growth and defensive sectors is expected to become mainstream, with potential opportunities in sectors related to new productivity, AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] Overseas Stocks - The U.S. economic outlook is influenced by tariff reductions, tax policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with concerns about stagflation and declining consumer and business confidence [5] - European stocks are viewed favorably due to attractive valuations, reduced inflation pressures, and planned increases in defense spending and infrastructure investments, leading to a potential shift of investments back to Europe from U.S. markets [5] Asian Markets - Asian economies are experiencing reduced currency appreciation pressures, allowing central banks more room to lower interest rates to support growth, with Japan's stock market showing positive performance due to corporate transformation [6] Overseas Bonds - The report emphasizes focusing on non-U.S. bond markets, as central banks in mature markets and Asia may lower rates more aggressively than the Federal Reserve, presenting additional opportunities for bond investors [8] Alternative Assets - In uncertain environments, investors are encouraged to consider alternative assets such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, which historically have lower correlation with traditional stocks and bonds, providing predictable cash income and reducing portfolio volatility [10] Summary - The global economy faces downward risks and increased volatility, but a combination of fiscal and monetary policies may help mitigate risks outside the U.S. Investors are advised to diversify across regions and asset classes to enhance portfolio resilience against market shocks [13]