"我们接触的很多外资资产管理公司都把中国股票作为了'标配'。预计今年会有更多资金进入中国股票 市场。"渣打银行(中国)有限公司财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰对中新网记者说。 除了亚洲，渣打还看好美国股票。报告称，企业盈利增长强劲、美联储放宽货币政策等支撑美国经济软 着陆的预期和美国股票的韧性。 在基础配置中，渣打建议超配美国、印度和中国股票，以及新兴市场债券和黄金，同时低配欧洲和日本 股票。 该公司财富方案部总经理梁大伟表示："站在2026年的新起点，我们预见亚洲经济的韧性将日益凸显。 面对增长动能转换与地缘格局重塑的双重变奏，投资者需要在不确定性中保持定力，在变化中前瞻布 局。"(完) 渣打：中国和印度是今年亚洲股票盈利增长"双引擎" 中新网上海1月6日电 (记者 姜煜)渣打银行(中国)有限公司财富方案部6日发布《2026年全球市场展望》 报告称，今年亚洲(除日本)股票的盈利增长有望居全球主要地区之首，中国和印度是增长的"双引擎"。 "印度股票因企业盈利上行、增长强劲和估值改善被上调至超配；中国股票则有望获益于企业治理的改 善，以及政策对科技与创新的支持。"报告说。 报告分析，中国在2026年可能推出更果断 ...

摩根大通资产管理公司驻伦敦新兴市场本币债务主管Didier Lambert表示，外资持股比例的相对下降 是"我们看好这一资产类别的主要原因之一"。他补充道："随着新兴市场经济体在新冠疫情后增加债券 发行，其中很大一部分被当地银行和养老基金购入。" Lambert表示，他更喜欢来自新兴经济体的本币债务，这些经济体拥有"庞大而雄厚的本地资金，这使它 们能够抑制波动，例如墨西哥、南非、巴西、印度和泰国"。 智通财经APP获悉，基金经理表示，新兴市场债券在 2026 年可能会得到支撑，因为这些证券越来越多 地由本地投资者持有，这些投资者受货币风险的影响较小，因此更具抗风险能力。近年来，随着中国、 墨西哥和印度尼西亚等国资本市场的深化，国内基金越来越多地持有本币债券。发展中国家的本地养老 基金和保险公司也加大了购买力度，以满足其不断增长的负债。 在某些情况下，境外所有权的下降幅度相当显著。外国投资者持有的墨西哥债券比例已从2020年初的 29%左右降至约11%，而同期外国投资者持有的印尼债券比例也从近40%降至约13%。 新兴市场债券也越来越不受美国国债波动的影响。新兴市场本币政府债券指数与美国国债收益率的120 天相 ...

机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 截至2025年岁末，新兴市场债券和股票2025年均录得两位数比例的上涨。 美国银行近期对300位投资者进行的170场会议调查显示，华尔街几乎没有人对新兴市场持有悲观态度。 机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 2025年新兴市场股债汇录得两位数涨幅 今年稍早，在特朗普政府宣布所谓"对等关税"后，投资者因多年回报疲弱以及对贸易战的担忧，在很长 一段时间内回避新兴市场资产。但如今，情况急剧逆转。 根据媒体汇编数据，新兴市场本币债券2025年至今上涨了18%，股票也整体上涨了26%。同时，自2017 年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债收益率利差收窄至11年来最 低水平。同时，衡量新兴市场外汇套利交易策略的彭博新兴市场套利指数（Emerging Market Carry Index）今年至今的投资回报率高达16.71%，也取得了自2009年以来的最佳投资回报。 同时，新兴市场在全球股票和债券基准指数中的份额也正在上升。在彭博全球大中型股指数中，新兴市 场股票的权重相对于发达市场提高了一个多百分点，接近13%，而新兴市场债券在彭博 ...

AllianceBernstein LP新兴市场股票主管萨米·铃木(Sammy Suzuki)表示："2025年是一个拐点。一年前的问题还是新兴市场是否具备投资价值，但现在我们已 经不再被问到这个问题了。" 更多上行空间 智通财经APP获悉，新兴市场有望在2026年伊始成为华尔街的宠儿，资产管理机构正押注一轮持续多年的资金流入周期已经启动。今年涌入该领域的资本规 模——覆盖所有新兴市场证券，创下自2009年以来的最佳表现——表明，越来越多的投资者正在重新配置这一此前多年表现乏力、长期不受青睐的资产类 别。自2017年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债之间的利差收窄至11年来最低水平，而套利交易策略——通常是借入 低收益资产、买入高收益资产——也取得了自2009年以来的最佳回报。 美国银行最近在伦敦举行的投资会议上充分展示了市场对该领域的热情。该行邀请了300位投资者并举行了170场会议，发现几乎没有人对新兴市场持悲观态 度。美银新兴市场固定收益部门主管大卫·豪纳(David Hauner)的结论是："新兴市场的悲观论者已经绝迹了。" 全球资本流动可能正在发生更根本性的转变。投资组 ...

今年传统的股债平衡组合录得两位数涨幅，创下2019年以来最佳表现。Cambria Investments旗下一只持有29只ETF的全球配置基金录得成立以来最佳 年度表现，多资产量化组合的回报超越标普500指数。 尽管多元化策略在2025年表现出色，资金却持续流向集中的大型科技股敞口和主题交易。一些策略师警告称，在市场估值高企和集中度加深之际，放 弃多元化可能在错误的时机让投资组合暴露于风险之中。 投资者持续背离平衡策略 2025年，多元化投资策略录得多年来最强表现，但这一成就在AI热潮中几乎未获关注。 BCA Research首席策略师Marko Papic表示： 尽管所有焦点都集中在AI故事上，但2025年并非股票的故事，关键在于全球多元化配置。 2025年可能标志着华尔街传统谨慎策略的回归，但今年投资者仍然纷纷抛售这些策略。 今年传统的股债平衡组合录得两位数涨幅，创下2019年以来最佳表现。然而资金却持续流向集中的大型科技股敞口和主题交易。一些策略师警告称，在 市场估值高企和集中度加深之际，放弃多元化可能在错误的时机让投资组合暴露于风险之中。 本周的通胀数据印证了多元化策略的价值。周四美国通胀数据低于预期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government shutdown has delayed economic data releases, complicating market assessments of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, which is a major factor for market volatility in November [1] - The basic scenario from 惠理基金 suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy but a significant chance to avoid recession next year, with potential fiscal policies from the Trump administration to support the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to lack new catalysts in the short term, leading to a range-bound market; third-quarter corporate earnings have generally fallen short of market expectations [1] Group 2 - A recovery in A-shares is anticipated to be more differentiated, with capital concentrated in sectors like AI and technology, while interest in consumer sectors remains weak [2] - Retail investors have recently withdrawn funds from savings accounts to invest, but market momentum has weakened, suggesting a continuation of consolidation and range-bound trading until new catalysts emerge [2] - North Asian stock market earnings forecasts have improved, but valuations are considered high; Southeast Asian markets remain undervalued due to political and growth concerns [3] Group 3 - Japanese stocks may benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, but valuations are approaching historical highs, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting tourism and net exports [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to remain steep, making investment strategies based on duration management more challenging due to the widening fiscal deficit [5] - Asian high-yield bond prices experienced slight adjustments, but credit spreads remain well below historical averages, indicating a need for more rigorous bond selection [6] Group 4 - Gold prices are expected to rise following silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and a weak dollar, while the correlation among risk assets has increased, making stable income sources crucial for investment returns [7]

Group 1 - Schroders emphasizes the selection of high-quality bonds based on interest rate sensitivity and yield to provide stable income sources, while strategically increasing alternative income sources such as emerging market bonds, insurance-linked securities (ILS), and securitized credit products, which have lower correlation with traditional asset classes like stocks and fixed income, enhancing overall portfolio performance [1] - The U.S. economic growth and overall inflation outlook remain uncertain, with the top 20% of consumers experiencing increased purchasing power due to strong rebounds in stocks and other assets, raising questions about their ability to continue driving U.S. economic growth [1] - The macro environment generally supports investment despite market volatility, with certain asset classes potentially benefiting from the long-term impacts of Trump policies, while investors should be aware of global trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, sluggish economic growth, persistent inflation, high interest rates, decarbonization costs, and uncertainties related to the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Group 2 - In a volatile market, maintaining high correlation between stocks and bonds suggests that diversification and active investment strategies to identify securities and sectors with return potential will be crucial [2] - Long-term market trends are expected to drive global growth over the next decade, with high-growth global companies exhibiting high operating profit margins and ample free cash flow presenting good capital appreciation opportunities [2] - The development and application of AI are driving increased research spending, continuously boosting earnings growth for major U.S. tech companies, while improvements in corporate governance in Japan are enhancing local companies' profitability and potential investment returns [2] - The correlation between global small-cap and large-cap stocks is low, allowing for simultaneous growth enhancement and diversification, while companies benefiting from inflation trends, such as those in the gold-related sectors, are also worth investors' attention [2]

Group 1 - Gold has reached around $4,100 per ounce, while silver is approaching $50, indicating potential inflation concerns, but the CPI remains stable [3][4][14] - The recent surge in gold and silver prices reflects systemic concerns rather than traditional inflation fears, as the correlation between CPI and gold prices has diverged [16][40] - Central banks are significantly increasing gold purchases, with over 1,000 tons bought annually from 2022 to 2024, marking a historical high [30][93] Group 2 - Silver's industrial demand has surged, accounting for approximately 55% of global silver demand in 2023, driven by sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [34][36] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased, indicating that silver is outperforming gold, with historical volatility reaching new highs since 2020 [21][26] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold serves as a "face" of central banks, while silver acts as a "lubricant" for the new energy era [38][39] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a growing concern, with interest payments nearing the federal tax revenue ceiling, leading to fears about the sustainability of the current monetary and debt systems [62][63] - The market is reassessing the "inflation risk premium," indicating that investors are more concerned about systemic risks than immediate inflation [66][67] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is tightening, with expectations of interest rate adjustments impacting gold prices [70][73] Group 4 - Emerging markets are experiencing capital inflows due to favorable conditions, including a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices, which improve export revenues [109][139] - The correlation between gold prices and emerging market debt suggests that as gold is viewed as a hedge against dollar risks, funds are flowing into high-yield emerging market bonds [118][130] - However, there are risks associated with this trend, as sudden shifts in the dollar or profit-taking in precious metals could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets [144][152] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a balanced asset allocation, with gold and silver viewed as systemic insurance, while also considering dollar risk hedging and emerging market exposure [166][176][182] - Monitoring key economic indicators, such as U.S. core PCE and Chinese social financing, can provide insights into potential market adjustments and the timing of asset reallocation [191][198] - The evolving narrative around gold suggests it is now seen as a measure of national credit rather than merely an inflation indicator, reflecting broader concerns about the stability of fiat currencies and government debt [196][198]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market is expected to stabilize rather than deteriorate sharply, allowing for a defensive stance in bond investments, particularly favoring U.S. Treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds with maturities of no more than five years, and Agency MBS [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a "soft landing," with slowing growth and easing inflation pressures, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate remains to promote full employment and stabilize prices [1] - In Europe, there are differing economic outlooks among countries, leading to a more favorable view on European corporate bonds, although careful selection of opportunities is emphasized [1] Group 2 - Given the current unattractive yields on sovereign bonds, the fund primarily invests in high-quality global corporate bonds, maintaining an average credit quality of BBB+ as of September 30, 2025 [2] - The fund also considers emerging market bonds due to less hawkish monetary policies, which can enhance bond portfolio yields and provide a more diversified and flexible asset allocation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Market Investment Opportunities - Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, Fidelity International has shifted its tactical asset allocation to a more positive stance on risk assets, particularly favoring emerging market equities and bonds [3]. - Fidelity International maintains a bullish outlook on emerging market stocks, especially in China, anticipating more consumer stimulus measures and improvements in industrial profit margins due to "anti-involution" policies [3]. - The firm also sees emerging market bonds as attractive due to their solid fundamentals and better valuations compared to developed market investment-grade bonds, with a weaker dollar further enhancing their appeal [3]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Resource Sectors - The A-share market is viewed as being in a critical window, with foreign asset management institutions optimistic about structural opportunities in the fourth quarter due to improved liquidity and risk appetite [4]. - The technology growth sector is particularly favored, with an emphasis on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, despite potential short-term price pressures [4]. - The resource sector is gaining attention, with rising prices in precious metals, base metals, and energy metals, as the investment focus shifts towards cyclical commodities like copper and other non-ferrous metals [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic Asset - Fidelity International holds a bullish view on gold, suggesting that as investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets and diversify, gold may attract structural inflows due to factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks [5].