新兴市场股票正逐渐成为今年以来全球股票市场最热门的投资与交易主题之一，并且全球最顶级基金经理们愈发偏好广义上的新兴市场资 产——包含新兴市场股票、债券以及主权货币类资产。花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，来自全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构的基金经 理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。 华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的分析师们在审阅投资型基金们已公开发布的展望后表示，全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构—— 累计管理着逾20万亿美元资产，正在大举买入新兴市场股票标的/新兴市场ETF、本币债券甚至某些信用类资产，押注强劲的全球经济增长 态势、受益于全球AI基建狂潮的算力链高度集中和持续走弱的美元将利好新兴市场资产。 花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，基金经理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。新兴市 场债券则是他们最偏好的久期资产押注，与基金经理们对于美国国债和核心欧洲主权债券的空头仓位形成鲜明对比。花旗表示，在信用市 场中，新兴市场公司债务获得最大幅度的超配，而美国投资级债券仍是热门的低配或者减持对象。 即使本周全球市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index declined on Friday, marking a reduction in its first weekly gain in four weeks, as market risk appetite increased and stock markets rose, leading to a weaker dollar against most major currencies [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Movements - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, with a cumulative increase of 0.2% for the week [2][10]. - The rise in the dollar earlier in the week was attributed to technical factors, as noted by Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global [2][10]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve saw a broad increase, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.21%, while the S&P 500 index increased by nearly 2% [2][10]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar rose by 1.3% to 0.7016 [4][13]. - The Norwegian krone against the dollar fell by 1.3% to 9.6785, although it still saw a weekly increase of 0.3% [5][14]. - The New Zealand dollar increased by 1.2% to 0.6019, while the dollar/yen remained stable at 157.11 as investors assessed the upcoming Japanese elections [6][16]. - The euro rose by 0.4% to 1.182, and the British pound increased by 0.7% to 1.3619 [7][8][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated a strategy shift, reducing exposure to U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds while increasing holdings in emerging market bonds [11]. - Currencies sensitive to commodity price fluctuations led gains following an increase in gold prices, reversing risk-averse sentiment in the stock market [12].

Core Viewpoint - Carmignac Gestion SA warns traders to think twice before selling emerging market bonds, as funds are expected to continue flowing into this asset class due to strong structural advantages in emerging economies [1] Group 1: Structural Advantages of Emerging Markets - Emerging economies are showing three structural advantages: sustained economic growth outpacing developed economies, stronger policy accountability from some national leaders, and a cautious monetary policy framework with manageable overall debt levels [1] - The market's rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts are driving investors to seek higher-yielding opportunities in other markets, making funds tracking emerging market assets one of the biggest beneficiaries [1] Group 2: Performance and Future Outlook - Emerging market bonds had a return of 12.2% last year, the best performance since 2012, although it may be challenging to replicate this success this year [1] - Despite the narrowing yield spread compared to U.S. Treasuries, emerging market bonds still have potential for growth, as the current yield premium is only 240 basis points, the lowest since 2013 [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Many emerging markets still offer attractive interest rate conditions for arbitrage traders, particularly in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Turkey [4] - The overall rise in commodity prices is expected to support demand for emerging market bonds, with many emerging markets being key producers of metals involved in the AI and green revolutions [4] - Specific investments in Hungary's local currency bonds and Romania's public finance improvements are highlighted as promising opportunities [5] Group 4: Broader Market Sentiment - Emerging markets such as Ivory Coast, Benin, Egypt, and Uzbekistan are noted for their solid investment fundamentals, with positive market reception encouraging optimism across other sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical dynamics and Trump administration policies on global markets in 2026, highlighting key investment themes such as global monetary and fiscal dynamics, and a potential long-term commodity cycle [3][6]. Investment Themes - Geopolitical fragmentation will continue to influence markets, but asset class returns may not be significantly affected. The focus will remain on underlying fundamentals despite policy challenges [6][7]. - Global monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with predictions of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while emerging market central banks may also lower rates [7][8]. - Fiscal policies are anticipated to support market conditions, with increased government spending, particularly in defense and infrastructure, contributing positively to risk assets [7][8]. Commodity Cycle - A potential long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with strong performances in precious metals like gold and silver, and industrial metals like copper expected to continue rising due to geopolitical dynamics and economic stability [8][9]. AI Investment Shift - The focus of AI investment is shifting from "AI enablers" to "AI beneficiaries," with sectors like healthcare expected to benefit significantly from AI applications, enhancing productivity and efficiency [10][11]. - The industrial and financial sectors are also seen as beneficiaries of AI investments, with industrial firms supporting infrastructure for AI-related energy demands and financial institutions leveraging AI for efficiency gains [11][12]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is experiencing a record issuance, with expectations of continued strong demand for government and corporate bonds. The yield curve is likely to steepen, favoring short- to medium-duration bonds [14][15]. - Emerging market bonds are viewed positively due to favorable absolute yields and increasing demand, with expectations of outperforming other debt instruments despite last year's strong performance [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of central banks, particularly in China, reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds while increasing gold reserves, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt and the dollar's dominance in global finance [3][5][7]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - China's central bank has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for nine consecutive months, indicating a deliberate strategy rather than a reaction to liquidity issues [1][3]. - The global central banks' gold holdings surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, reflecting a broader trend away from dollar-denominated assets [3][5]. - China's gold reserves are approximately 2,300 tons, and the country has maintained foreign exchange reserves above $3.3 trillion, demonstrating financial stability [3][5]. Group 2: Reasons for Reducing U.S. Treasury Holdings - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $38.4 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 128%, raising concerns about systemic risks associated with U.S. debt [5]. - The U.S. has increasingly weaponized the dollar through sanctions, prompting countries to diversify their reserves to avoid dependency on U.S. assets [5][7]. - Reducing U.S. Treasury holdings aligns with China's goal of promoting the international use of the renminbi, which has increased its share in global payments to 6.8% by 2025 [5][7]. Group 3: Global Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - While China is reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings, countries like Japan and the UK are increasing theirs, with Japan adding $2.6 billion and the UK adding $10.6 billion in November [9][10]. - Japan's motivations include currency management, profit from higher U.S. bond yields, and political alignment with the U.S. [9][10]. - The UK aims to maintain its status as a global dollar trading center and to hedge against its own debt risks by increasing U.S. Treasury holdings [10]. Group 4: Implications of Reduced U.S. Treasury Holdings - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major countries could lead to higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government as demand decreases [7][9]. - The ongoing reduction may influence U.S. economic policies, prompting actions from U.S. officials, including potential diplomatic engagements to address financial tensions [12].

Group 1 - Standard Chartered Bank's report indicates that China and India are expected to be the "twin engines" of profit growth for Asian stocks in 2026, leading global regions in earnings growth [1] - Indian stocks have been upgraded to overweight due to strong corporate earnings, robust growth, and improved valuations, while Chinese stocks are anticipated to benefit from enhanced corporate governance and policy support for technology and innovation [1] - The report suggests that China may implement more decisive and targeted stimulus measures in 2026 to accelerate investment in advanced technologies, which will bolster productivity [1] Group 2 - The Chief Investment Strategist of Standard Chartered Bank, Wang Xinjie, noted that many foreign asset management companies consider Chinese stocks as a "standard allocation," with expectations of increased capital inflow into the Chinese stock market this year [1] - In addition to Asia, the report expresses optimism for U.S. stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy as factors supporting expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [1] - Standard Chartered recommends overweight positions in U.S., Indian, and Chinese stocks, as well as emerging market bonds and gold, while suggesting underweight positions in European and Japanese stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds are expected to gain support by 2026 as these securities are increasingly held by local investors who are less affected by currency risks, thus demonstrating greater resilience [1][4]. Group 1: Local Investor Trends - Local pension funds and insurance companies in developing countries are increasing their purchases of domestic currency bonds to meet their growing liabilities [1]. - The relative decline in foreign ownership of emerging market bonds is a key reason for the positive outlook on this asset class [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding Mexican bonds has decreased from approximately 29% at the beginning of 2020 to about 11%, while the share for Indonesian bonds has dropped from nearly 40% to around 13% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Performance and Volatility - Emerging market bonds showed strong performance in 2025, with an index return of 9.3%, the best since 2019, compared to a 6.3% return for developed market bonds [4]. - The volatility of emerging market bonds is generally lower than that of developed market bonds, with a standard deviation of yield changes over the past 12 months at 0.02 compared to 0.04 for developed markets [5]. - The correlation between emerging market local currency government bond indices and U.S. Treasury yields has decreased to -0.06, the lowest level since 2014, indicating reduced sensitivity to U.S. market fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Market Maturity - Local bond buyers are typically less affected by exchange rate risks and tend to be more strategic long-term holders, indicating a maturation and deepening of financial markets [5]. - The withdrawal of foreign investors helps reduce specific market sensitivity to global market forces, thereby giving greater importance to domestic factors [6].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to perform well in 2026, with a general consensus among institutions that there is little pessimism regarding these markets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging market local currency bonds have risen by 18% and stocks by 26% in 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years [3]. - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [3]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a return of 16.71% this year, the best since 2009 [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors revealed that there is almost no pessimism towards emerging markets [4]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging markets have completely disappeared, with net bullish sentiment reaching a historical high [4]. - Strategas estimates that U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a more accommodative global financial environment and stable internal policies, with growth anticipated to outperform developed economies [6]. - The Asian region is highlighted as a key growth engine, with potential for pro-business governments emerging from elections in Latin America [6]. - Structural trends such as geopolitical reshuffling and supply chain restructuring are expected to favor emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to high yields and diversification benefits, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America, and Asia [6]. - Investment in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy in China, is recommended [6]. - The outlook for Indian markets is positive, driven by the "Make in India" initiative, which is expected to boost manufacturing and infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Fed to maintain loose monetary policy [9]. - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that emerging markets will benefit from a weaker dollar and the investment boom in AI [9]. - Emerging market currency volatility is currently low, but there are concerns that unfavorable exchange rate movements could erase gains [11].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to become favored by Wall Street by early 2026, with asset management firms betting on a prolonged inflow cycle that has already begun [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Capital inflows into emerging markets this year have reached the best performance since 2009, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards this previously underperforming asset class [1] - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level in 11 years [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that emerging market bond funds could see inflows of up to $50 billion next year, with expectations of price appreciation and yield benefits from local currency bonds [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent investment conference by Bank of America revealed that nearly all investors are optimistic about emerging markets, with no significant pessimism reported [3] - AllianceBernstein's Sammy Suzuki noted a shift in perception, stating that questions about the investment value of emerging markets have diminished [3] - Gama Asset Management's Rajeev De Mello believes there is still room for significant over-allocation towards emerging markets [5] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - There is a potential fundamental shift in global capital flows, with portfolio managers eager to diversify away from the U.S. and attracted by progress in debt reduction and inflation control in developing countries [3] - Despite recent rebounds, the overall scale of capital inflows remains relatively small compared to previous outflows, indicating that emerging markets still have insufficient representation in global portfolios [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The recent rebound in emerging markets may mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar, which has declined by 8% this year, providing support for emerging market assets [6] - Citigroup suggests that investors should only buy emerging market assets that can withstand a potential strengthening of the dollar [6] - As of mid-December, emerging market bond funds saw a significant inflow of $4 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since July [7]

Core Insights - The traditional stock-bond balanced portfolio has recorded double-digit gains this year, marking its best performance since 2019, yet funds continue to flow into concentrated large-cap tech stocks and thematic trades [1][2] - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies in 2025, investor focus remains on AI-driven narratives, leading to a neglect of balanced investment strategies [3][4] Diversification Strategy Performance - In 2025, diversified investment strategies achieved their strongest performance in years, but this success has largely gone unnoticed amid the AI hype [3][7] - BCA Research's chief strategist Marko Papic emphasizes that the key to success in 2025 lies in global diversification rather than solely focusing on stocks [4] Fund Flows and Market Trends - According to JPMorgan data, balanced and multi-asset fund categories, including public risk parity funds and 60/40 portfolios, have experienced capital outflows for 13 consecutive quarters until a mild rebound this fall [5] - Funds are increasingly moving towards concentrated large-cap tech exposures and thematic trades, as well as direct hedging tools like gold [6] Market Rotation and Stock Performance - This year has seen a market rotation, with value-oriented stock ETFs attracting over $56 billion in inflows, marking the second-largest annual inflow since 2000 [9] - International stocks have rebounded due to favorable fiscal reforms and a weaker dollar, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the fourth quarter [10] Future Outlook - Some strategists believe this shift will continue into 2026, with expectations of expanding U.S. corporate earnings and strong performance from small-cap and international stocks [11] - JPMorgan's David Lebovitz is leaning towards emerging market bonds and UK government bonds while maintaining selective exposure to U.S. stocks and AI stocks [12] Cautionary Signals - There are indications of potential bubbles, with Bank of America noting a strong buying impulse in 2025, the second strongest in nearly a century [13] - Manulife John Hancock Investments' Emily Roland warns of increasing disconnection between market performance and fundamentals, suggesting that this year has been a dream year for short-term investors [14]