在持续波动的市况下，股债市场的相关性将维持高企，分散投资并运用主动型投资方式，以分辨哪些证 券与行业板块具回报潜力，很可能是关键所在。 一些长远市场趋势有望成为未来十年全球的主要增长动力。Remi表示，营业利润率高、自由现金流充 裕的环球高增长企业可带来良好的资本增值机会。企业质素、股东总回报、派息率、估值以及企业管治 方向亦是主要考虑因素。 行业板块方面，人工智能(AI)发展与应用热潮，带动相关科研支出增加，持续推动美国巨型科技企业盈 利增长。近年日本政府及监管机构积极促进企业改革，日企管治日益改善，有助提升当地企业盈利能力 及日股的潜在投资回报，估值且具吸引力。在聚焦大型企业之余，环球小型公司与大型股的关连性较 低，可有效同时提升增长并分散投资。此外，受惠于通胀走势的企业(如黄金相关行业)，亦值得投资者 关注。 美国增长和整体通胀前景仍不明朗，随着股票及其他资产强劲回升，最具消费能力的20%消费者，其消 费能力已因此有所提升。至于这些消费者能否继续推动美国经济增长，仍然是未知之数。不过，这一现 象凸显出美国经济正变得越来越金融化，而这亦带来风险。 Remi表示，尽管市场波动仍存在，整体上宏观环境仍然支持投 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：藏金洞） 洞主江湖说：我说的可能都是错的，但值得你去探索和反思。 亲爱的藏金洞友们： 黄金站上4100美元一线。白银朝着50美元猛冲。很多洞友第一反应是——通胀又要失控了吗。但这一 次，CPI还在装乖。真正在滴答作响的，是美国那颗越滚越大的财政债务炸弹。 金银价格一起创高，新兴市场资产一边吃"甜点"，一边踩钢丝。 在这轮行情里，谁在偷换"通胀恐慌"和"债务恐慌"。 谁又在悄悄给新兴市场递上一杯"高收益+高波动"的鸡尾酒。 洞主今天就和各位洞友掰开了讲。 如果有一天早上醒来。 你刷到新闻说：COMEX黄金冲到4133美元一盎司，年内涨幅已经超过55%。 白银摸到48点几美元，离历史高点50美元只差一个喷嚏。 你会怎么想。 大部分人条件反射就一句。 完了。 通胀又要失控了。 但你再往下翻。 会发现这波金银新高，和你脑子里那套"CPI上去→金价跟着上去"的老剧本，其实已经对不上号了。 金银齐飞：价格在说"系统有问题" 先把盘面捋清楚。 黄金这轮不是一个人跑。 白银跟得很紧。 期货盘面上。 黄金创新高。 白银同步拉到48.5美元附近。 金银比从前期的85.6回落到81一线。 什么意思。 就是白 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market is expected to stabilize rather than deteriorate sharply, allowing for a defensive stance in bond investments, particularly favoring U.S. Treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds with maturities of no more than five years, and Agency MBS [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a "soft landing," with slowing growth and easing inflation pressures, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate remains to promote full employment and stabilize prices [1] - In Europe, there are differing economic outlooks among countries, leading to a more favorable view on European corporate bonds, although careful selection of opportunities is emphasized [1] Group 2 - Given the current unattractive yields on sovereign bonds, the fund primarily invests in high-quality global corporate bonds, maintaining an average credit quality of BBB+ as of September 30, 2025 [2] - The fund also considers emerging market bonds due to less hawkish monetary policies, which can enhance bond portfolio yields and provide a more diversified and flexible asset allocation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Market Investment Opportunities - Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, Fidelity International has shifted its tactical asset allocation to a more positive stance on risk assets, particularly favoring emerging market equities and bonds [3]. - Fidelity International maintains a bullish outlook on emerging market stocks, especially in China, anticipating more consumer stimulus measures and improvements in industrial profit margins due to "anti-involution" policies [3]. - The firm also sees emerging market bonds as attractive due to their solid fundamentals and better valuations compared to developed market investment-grade bonds, with a weaker dollar further enhancing their appeal [3]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Resource Sectors - The A-share market is viewed as being in a critical window, with foreign asset management institutions optimistic about structural opportunities in the fourth quarter due to improved liquidity and risk appetite [4]. - The technology growth sector is particularly favored, with an emphasis on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, despite potential short-term price pressures [4]. - The resource sector is gaining attention, with rising prices in precious metals, base metals, and energy metals, as the investment focus shifts towards cyclical commodities like copper and other non-ferrous metals [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic Asset - Fidelity International holds a bullish view on gold, suggesting that as investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets and diversify, gold may attract structural inflows due to factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America analysts suggest that aggressive interest rate cuts could trigger "massive re-leveraging," unlocking frozen cash and revitalizing the real estate market [1][2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - U.S. households currently hold $19.6 trillion in cash and equivalents, the highest debt-to-cash ratio since 1991 [2] - Existing home sales are projected to average 4 million units in 2025, similar to levels seen after the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The current mortgage rate gap is at its widest since the Volcker era, providing room for significant rate cuts [2][4] Group 2: Potential Policy Actions - The government may adopt an "escape velocity strategy" to maximize economic growth ahead of the midterm elections, focusing on interest rate cuts and stimulus checks [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra hinted at a potential "housing emergency" announcement, which could be significant in the election context [3] Group 3: Re-leveraging Opportunities - Small-cap value stocks (SVAL, AVUV) are expected to benefit from a declining interest rate environment, with over 45% of their debt being short-term and floating rate [5] - Homebuilders (ITB, XHB) have historically outperformed the S&P 500 during rate cuts, indicating potential for further gains despite recent increases [5] - Long-term government bonds (TLT, SPTL) are likely to see increased demand as interest rates fall, with a lack of duration exposure in global portfolios [5] Group 4: Additional Investment Opportunities - Emerging market bonds (XEMD, EMBD) have historically benefited from lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, with a 30-year annualized return of 6.4% [7] - Gold and gold mining stocks (GLD, GDX) are expected to rise in a high inflation and low interest rate environment, with a target price of $4,000 per ounce set by Bank of America [7]

Core Insights - State Street Corporation's institutional investor risk appetite indicator remained positive in September, marking five consecutive months of optimistic sentiment, with the latest value matching the 2025 high reached in July [1] - As of the end of September, long-term investors maintained their asset allocation in equities, fixed income, and cash, indicating that funds have not returned to long-duration bonds, with fixed income holdings significantly below long-term averages, suggesting a continued preference for high-risk assets among institutional investors [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market has seen significant dollar selling, with the reduction reaching the highest level since early 2021, as funds flow into carry trade currencies, with investors increasing their positions in high-risk commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar [1] - In the equity market, North America remains the most favored region, with increased buying momentum in U.S. stocks pushing up positions, while buying in Asian emerging market stocks has slowed [1] - Demand for fixed income products is moderate, but emerging market bonds have regained popularity among investors [1]

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Overview - The report suggests a balanced asset allocation strategy for the fourth quarter, favoring equities, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the USD [1] - The US economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a GDP growth decline from 2% in the first half to 1.3% in Q4 2023 [9] - The Eurozone economy is performing better than expected, with inflation stabilizing and government bond yields rising [1][13] Group 2: Currency Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight allocation to currency market products (20%), emphasizing their liquidity and safety [4][7] - Specific currency allocations include an overweight in USD (10.5%), Euro (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while recommending a neutral position in RMB (1.2%) and underweight in JPY (0%) [4][6][8] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - A neutral allocation to bonds (22.5%) is suggested, with a focus on US bonds (10%) and an overweight in UK (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4][42] - The report highlights that bond valuations are more attractive than equities, despite potential inflation risks [42][43] Group 4: Equity Market Analysis - A neutral allocation to equities (30%) is recommended, with specific overweight positions in Eurozone (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and China (3.5%) stocks, while underweighting US (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4][6][42] - The report notes that stock valuations are currently higher than fixed income products, indicating a need for caution [4][42] Group 5: Alternative Assets - The report suggests a lower allocation to alternative assets (27.5%) due to their high risk and low liquidity, recommending a diversified approach [4][6] - Specific alternative assets include private equity (9%), hedge funds (5%), and real estate (5.5%), with a cautious outlook on digital assets (1%) [4][6][42]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Group 1 - The core investment strategy from Citigroup emphasizes an overweight in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector driven by AI, while underweighting UK stocks [3][4] - Capital expenditure in the U.S. has significantly contributed to GDP, surpassing consumer spending, indicating a robust investment environment [4] - Citigroup maintains a neutral stance on government bonds, anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while suggesting a steepening trade strategy for U.S. Treasuries [5] Group 2 - In the credit market, Citigroup is underweighting investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads, which could provide risk protection in case of economic downturns [4][5] - The outlook for emerging market bonds is optimistic, with a preference for markets like Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, especially when the U.S. dollar weakens [5][6] - The dollar is facing structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness against the euro and high-yield emerging market currencies [6] Group 3 - Citigroup holds a neutral view on commodities but advocates for a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a valuable asset for diversification away from the dollar [6][7] - Silver is favored in the current market environment due to its historical performance under specific conditions, such as rising U.S. term premiums and a bullish stock market [7] - Overall, Citigroup expresses a positive outlook on global equity markets, especially in the U.S. due to high exposure to AI, while being cautious on U.S. bonds and maintaining a bearish view on the dollar [7]