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“中国出口激增,经济韧性十足,可能对美国会更加强硬”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 09:42
Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in September reached a six-month high, indicating strong resilience despite U.S. tariffs, supported by market diversification and manufacturing competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 7.4%, both exceeding expectations, resulting in a trade surplus of $90.5 billion [1]. - The export growth rate surpassed economists' median forecast of 6.6%, suggesting that China's record export momentum has not slowed down [1]. - Despite U.S. tariffs being 25 percentage points higher than the global average, China's manufacturing dominance continues to support its export flow [1]. Group 2: Market Diversification - Analysts noted that strong demand from non-U.S. markets means that Chinese companies are less affected by potential further tariff increases from the U.S. [1]. - The diversification of export markets has been significant this year, helping to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and contributing to steady GDP growth towards the annual target of around 5% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are concerns about the potential downward risks to the economy due to deteriorating U.S.-China relations, but analysts believe both sides may seek to ease tensions in the coming weeks [4]. - Data shows that in September, exports to the U.S. fell by 27%, while exports to the EU, Southeast Asia, and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6%, and 56.4%, respectively [4]. - The overall resilience and structural optimization of China's foreign trade have been highlighted, although challenges and uncertainties remain in the external environment [4].