Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, industrial added value and exports increased by 6.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong economic start[1] - Social retail sales grew by 2.8%, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to December 2025, driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and trade-in policies[2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment surging by 11.4%, becoming the main support for overall investment[3] Consumption and Investment - The retail sales of communication equipment maintained a high growth rate of 17.8%, while home appliance and furniture sales turned positive, increasing by 22% and 11% respectively compared to December 2025[4] - The government plans to allocate 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support infrastructure projects, enhancing investment participation from social capital[5] Export Dynamics - Exports showed strong resilience with a 21.8% year-on-year increase, supported by global AI infrastructure investments and a diversified export market[6] - The shift in China's export focus from traditional consumer goods to high-value intermediate and capital goods is enhancing stability against trade tensions[7] Real Estate Market - In January-February, new housing sales and investment fell by 13.5% and 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in December 2025, indicating signs of stabilization[8] - The willingness of homeowners to list and adjust prices decreased during the Spring Festival, which helped mitigate price declines[9] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy should ensure necessary spending intensity and consider timely budget adjustments to support economic growth[10] - Monetary policy should focus on reducing reserve requirements to lower market interest rates and stimulate lending to the real economy[11] - Real estate policies should be relaxed in major cities to boost housing demand and stabilize the market[12]

Group 1: Export Performance - In the first two months of 2026, China's goods exports reached $656.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%[1] - Imports during the same period totaled $443.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8%[1] - The global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in February, marking a 44-month high, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing demand[7] Group 2: Structural Changes in Exports - China's export market is diversifying, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and countries along the Belt and Road, reducing reliance on developed economies[2] - Exports to non-U.S. markets showed strong growth, with increases of 49.9% to Africa, 29.4% to ASEAN, 27.8% to the EU, and 27.0% to South Korea, while exports to the U.S. fell by 11.0%[8] - The share of high-value-added products in exports is increasing, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing year-on-year growth rates of 72.6%, 67.1%, and 52.8%, respectively[9] Group 3: Future Risks and Considerations - Risks include escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact export performance[2] - The export growth observed in early 2026 may face a marginal decline in March due to the "pre-holiday rush" effect from the Chinese New Year[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese government aims for an export growth target of 15% to 16% by 2026, necessitating exports to reach between $546 billion and $550 billion, with an average monthly export of $45 billion to $46 billion [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance and Challenges - In 2025, Vietnam's total import and export value exceeded $930 billion, marking an 18.2% year-on-year increase, with exports reaching $475 billion, a nearly $70 billion increase [1] - Despite positive outcomes, Vietnam's exports face internal constraints such as reliance on a few major markets, unbalanced structure, low added value, and a significant trade deficit with key markets [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives for Growth - The Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to focus on production development, increasing export categories, enhancing added value, and transitioning from processing to self-production [2] - Experts suggest leveraging 17 signed free trade agreements to diversify export markets, promoting service exports, and improving national brand building [2] Group 3: Digital Transformation and E-commerce - E-commerce is identified as a new growth area for exports, with online import and export revenue exceeding $4.5 billion, expected to continue growing in the coming years [2]

Core Insights - The chief economist of Guangdong Kai Securities, Luo Zhiheng, emphasizes that despite facing various internal and external challenges, the Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience, particularly in regions like Suzhou and Shenzhen, which showcase robust technological innovation [2][4] - The economic landscape is characterized by diverse regional pressures, especially in areas heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. and real estate, indicating a challenging transition phase [2][4] - Luo identifies two areas of economic performance that exceeded expectations: export growth and capital market performance, while consumption recovery and real estate market trends fell short of expectations [3][6] Export Performance - Export growth has surpassed expectations, supported by China's strong production capacity and product competitiveness, with a notable shift towards diversification in export markets, particularly increasing exports to ASEAN and Africa [4][5] - The structure of exports is evolving from low-end consumer goods to higher-end capital goods and components, driven by demand from Southeast Asia and Africa as they undergo industrialization [5][6] Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market has shown better-than-expected performance, driven by advancements in AI and ongoing improvements in market regulations, which have enhanced market attractiveness and reflected economic structural changes [6][7] - The technology sector has emerged as a leading market segment, surpassing traditional banking sectors in market capitalization, indicating a significant shift in economic dynamics [6] Consumption and Real Estate Challenges - Consumption recovery has not met market expectations, necessitating further policy support to stimulate demand [6][7] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a need for collaborative efforts to stabilize the sector, as indicated by the central economic work conference's emphasis on expanding domestic demand [6][7] Income Distribution and Policy Recommendations - Luo highlights the importance of income distribution reform to enhance consumption capacity and willingness, suggesting that improving public service investment in healthcare, education, and pensions can stimulate consumer spending [8][9] - Recommendations include increasing the share of labor income and property income for residents, enhancing corporate profit distribution, and establishing a "rural residents' income increase guidance fund" to support wage growth [9][10] Future Focus Areas - Key issues for 2026 include global economic and geopolitical risks, progress in domestic income distribution reform, strategies to address low fiscal revenue growth, and optimizing local government incentives to drive economic development [17]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports to the United States are projected to grow by 28.2% from 2021 to 2025, indicating a significant diversification in export markets [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12.5%, with exports to Vietnam specifically growing by 10.8% during the same period [1] - The increase in exports is attributed to major South Korean companies like Samsung and LG establishing factories in Vietnam, which boosts the export of intermediate goods and key components [1] Group 2 - South Korea's exports to ASEAN are expected to rise from $108.8 billion in 2021 to $122.4 billion by 2025 [1] - Exports to Vietnam are anticipated to grow from $56.7 billion to $62.8 billion in the same timeframe [1] - The trend reflects a broader strategy of South Korean firms to enhance investment and industrial cooperation with the U.S. and ASEAN markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UN's senior economist Benjamin Rae indicates that China's economy is projected to grow by 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in exports, highlighting the success of China's diversification in the export market [2] Group 1: Economic Growth - China's economy is transitioning towards a consumption-driven and high-tech sector [2] - The growth model will be adjusted to adapt to the shift from a developing economy to an emerging and mature market economy [2] Group 2: Export Market - There has been a notable increase in exports, reflecting the effectiveness of China's efforts in diversifying its export markets [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is identified as a critical juncture for the "14th Five-Year Plan," marking a significant change in China's economic growth strategy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight A-shares and H-shares [10] - Bullish on the steady appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, with a 12 - month target of 6.85 [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Goldman Sachs' forecast for China's economic growth in 2026 (real GDP growth of 4.8%) is higher than the market consensus of 4.5%. The prediction is based on expected policy easing and the strong resilience of the export sector. Net exports' contribution to growth is expected to narrow, while consumption and investment will support domestic demand. The real - estate market's decline remains a drag, but its negative impact is expected to weaken [8]. - China is in a profound structural transformation. New growth drivers are emerging as traditional engines (exports to the US and real - estate) have declined. The export sector has diversified, and the current account surplus is expected to expand. Domestic consumption growth may slow, but government consumption is expected to accelerate. Fixed - asset investment is expected to rebound. The real - estate and labor markets are the main challenges in 2026 [9]. - China's macro - policy will maintain a "gradual" and "flexible" easing mode. Fiscal policy will be the main force for "stabilizing growth", and the stock market has room for further growth [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Central Bank and Market Liquidity - After the holiday, the central bank conducted net withdrawals of funds. On January 5, the 7 - day pledged repurchase amount was only 135 million yuan with a 1.4% interest rate, and the net withdrawal was 46.88 billion yuan. After two days of net withdrawals, the OMO stock fell below 60 billion yuan. The post - holiday capital price declined, and market liquidity was generally abundant [2]. International and Domestic Stock Market Performance - On the first trading day of the new year, the A - share market had a good start. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to 4023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2546.271 billion yuan, an increase of 501.129 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 2.85%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 4.41%. Asian stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and China led the gains, and European and American major stock indexes also closed higher. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.09% and 0.03% respectively [3]. Bond Yields and Interest Rates - The yield of the 10 - year China Treasury bond was 1.8592%, up 0.84 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market were 1.3315% and 1.4861% respectively [3]. Sector Performance - Media, pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and non - bank finance led the gains, with increases of 4.12%, 3.85%, 3.69%, and 3.14% respectively. Petroleum and petrochemicals, banks, and transportation led the losses, with declines of 1.29%, 0.34%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index closed at 98.3291, down 0.13%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9829, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 130 basis points [4]. Goldman Sachs' Forecast for China's Economy in 2026 - Policy: China's macro - policy will be "gradually" and "flexibly" eased. Monetary policy will be moderately relaxed, and fiscal policy will be the main force for "stabilizing growth". The net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase, focusing on consumer infrastructure, people's livelihood, urban renewal, and major projects [10]. - Growth: Real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8%, higher than the market consensus. Net exports' contribution to growth will narrow, and consumption and investment will support domestic demand. The real - estate market's decline will continue to be a drag, but its negative impact will weaken [8]. - Market: Overweight A - shares and H - shares. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline more than long - term interest rates, and the yield curve may steepen. The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily against the US dollar [10].

Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [2][8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, also returning to the expansion zone [2][8] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, signaling overall economic recovery [2][8] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and consumption upgrade policy for 2026, with an initial funding of 62.5 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods [2][3] - The subsidy for purchasing new cars is set at 12% or 10% of the car price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan, maintaining the 2025 standards [2][3] - The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [2][3] Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% to 3,968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13,525.02 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.23% to 3,203.17 points [5][11] - The market turnover was reported at 20,659.23 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day [6][12] - The two-margin balance was recorded at 25,552.84 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous day [6][12] Sector Analysis - The defense, media, and real estate sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 2.13%, 1.54%, and 1.13% respectively [5][11] - Conversely, the telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and electronics sectors experienced declines of 1.35%, 1.10%, and 1.02% respectively [5][11]

Core Insights - India has signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Oman, marking Oman as the second Middle Eastern country to enter such an agreement with India after the UAE [1] - The CEPA aims to enhance the price competitiveness of exports between India and Oman, positioning Oman as a strategic gateway for Indian businesses to access markets in the Gulf, Africa, and West Asia [1][2] Trade Aspects - Oman commits to zero tariff access for 98.08% of products from India, covering 99.38% of India's total exports to Oman, including sectors like gems, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles [1] - India will reduce tariffs on approximately 77.79% of Omani products, while maintaining protective measures on sensitive items such as dairy and gold [1] Investment Aspects - The CEPA further relaxes market entry restrictions, allowing Oman to open 127 sub-sectors to Indian investment, with service contractors' stay extended from 90 days to 2 years, and permitting 100% foreign direct investment in key service sectors [1] Strategic Importance - Despite a projected bilateral trade volume of only $10.61 billion for FY 2024-2025, Oman is India's fourth-largest energy supplier and is strategically located along the critical Strait of Hormuz [2] - The agreement is part of India's broader strategy to deepen economic ties with Middle Eastern countries, especially in light of rising tariffs from the US and uncertain trade negotiations [2] Historical Context - The CEPA with the UAE, signed in May 2022, has led to significant trade growth, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion in FY 2024-2025, marking a 19.6% increase year-on-year [3] - Non-oil trade between India and the UAE has surged, with a 20.5% increase in FY 2024 and a 33.9% increase in the first half of FY 2025 [3] Future Prospects - India is accelerating negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty with Saudi Arabia and has signed a new investment agreement with Israel, indicating a commitment to enhancing economic cooperation in the region [4] - The Middle East is viewed as a crucial area for India's economic corridor project linking India, the Middle East, and Europe, with increasing investments expected [4] Challenges - India faces challenges in its trade relations with Middle Eastern countries, including a trade deficit due to heavy reliance on energy imports, with exports to Saudi Arabia at approximately $12 billion against imports exceeding $30 billion [5] - Geopolitical instability in the Middle East poses risks to energy security and infrastructure projects, complicating India's strategic interests in the region [6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite multiple pressures, China's foreign trade has shown resilient growth this year, exceeding market expectations, with a total import and export value of 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in the first 11 months [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports rebounded to 4.1%, maintaining continuous growth for 10 months since February [1] - General trade, which has higher added value, has become the mainstream, accounting for 63.2% of the total foreign trade value in the first 11 months [1] - Trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America has seen growth rates exceeding the overall level of foreign trade [1] Group 2: Product Structure and Market Dynamics - The export structure has upgraded significantly, with electromechanical products accounting for over 60% of exports, and notable growth in key categories like integrated circuits and automobiles [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent report highlights China's advantages in advanced manufacturing and its leading position in high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, and robotics, suggesting a potential increase in global market export share [1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - Despite the current resilience, challenges remain for next year, including a slowdown in global trade growth and uneven economic performance among major economies [2] - Analysts remain optimistic about China's foreign trade in the coming year, citing market diversification and product structure upgrades as key drivers [3] - The commencement of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the signing of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement are expected to create more opportunities for foreign trade [3] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support to promote innovative development in foreign trade and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]