Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors may play an increasingly important role in the future pricing of major asset classes. The GPR index provides a relatively high - frequency, complete and coherent reliable data source for quantitatively tracking geopolitical factors, which may have a certain positive effect on preventing and responding to geopolitical risks [1][8][55] Summary by Directory 1. Geopolitical Factors May Become Important Influences on Asset Pricing - Since 2025, with the resonance of the bond and equity eras, asset pricing theories have been continuously updated. Geopolitics, as an exogenous factor in traditional asset - pricing models, is becoming more important in asset pricing. The shift from incremental to stock - based competition is the underlying reason for the intensifying geopolitical influence [1][14][16] - Geopolitical factors have low predictability. It is more feasible to prepare response plans in advance rather than predict these factors. Geopolitical events can cause short - term shocks to asset prices, and in recent years, their influence may show signs of long - term effects [2][22][27] 2. How to Quantify Geopolitical Factors - With the development of text analysis and big data processing, the measurement of geopolitical factors is becoming more standardized, multi - dimensional, and high - frequency. The GPR index, proposed by Caldara and Iacoviello in 2022, is the most representative method for quantifying geopolitical risks based on news text. It can accurately capture important historical geopolitical events but has regional limitations [3][34][35] - Other methods, such as economic sanctions, military expenditure, and political stance indicators, can complement the GPR index [41] 3. Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Factors on Asset Pricing 3.1 Correlation Analysis between the GPR Index and Major Asset Classes - Statistically, the impact of the GPR index on the returns of major asset classes is weak overall, but there are directional differences among different assets. The GPR index has limited statistical correlation with asset price trends, and its impact is more short - term [6][43][44] 3.2 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Returns of Major Asset Classes - From a full - cycle perspective, the GPR index can help measure the tail - risk of major asset returns. Geopolitical risks may show a trend of continuous central - value increase. Gold shows strong safe - haven properties in high - geopolitical - risk periods, while copper and crude oil prefer a low - geopolitical - risk environment. The impact of geopolitical factors on major assets is evolving from a short - term factor to a long - term structural force [7][45][49] 3.3 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Volatility of Major Asset Classes - Geopolitical factors not only affect the price direction of major assets but also their volatility. Commodity and equity assets are more sensitive to geopolitical risks, while bond assets show strong volatility resilience. Since 2021, the influence of geopolitical factors on the volatility of major assets has significantly increased [8][52][53]