UNforex 1月7日讯（分析师 Simon）在贵金属价格持续攀升、美股整体运行于高位区间的市场环境下， 桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥就黄金快速上涨背后所反映的深层信号发出提醒。当前市场在降息预期与科 技投资情绪支撑下维持风险偏好，但对货币购买力变化及其对资产定价长期影响的讨论正在升温。 过去一年，国际金价屡次改写历史纪录，累计涨幅引发市场广泛关注。达里奥指出，此轮黄金上涨并非 单纯由短期避险情绪推动，而是更深层次地反映了法定货币实际价值的持续弱化。在他看来，这一因素 正在成为当前全球资产定价中不可忽视的主线逻辑。 他通过不同计价框架对资产表现进行比较指出，若以黄金作为衡量基准，美股在 2025 年的实际回报明 显弱于以美元计价下所呈现的表面强势。这一对比提示，在高通胀环境与长期宽松政策背景下，仅从名 义收益出发评估资产表现，可能掩盖真实风险敞口。 与黄金同步走强的，是美股在科技与人工智能相关板块带动下的持续上行，道指与标普指数多次刷新历 史高点。市场普遍认为，AI 投资周期仍在为企业盈利预期提供支撑，并成为推动股指的重要动力来 源。 不过，也有机构指出，在流动性充裕、政策环境偏宽松的阶段，资产价格更容易被推升 ...

上周国内权益市场继续走强，主要宽基指数普遍周涨幅在3%左右，万得全A和中证2000指数均创出了 年内新高，日均成交量也放大到2.2万亿元的较高水平。从盘面结构看，上周指数的上行主要由有色金 属为主的周期板块带动。伴随工业金属大宗商品价格显著走强，顺周期与资源品相关产业股价同步上 行。港股方面，上周恒生指数和恒生科技分别上涨0.5%和0.4%。人民币兑美元汇率的持续走强，离岸 汇率甚至一度突破7元的整数关口，引发了投资者的高度关注。 今年以来人民币对美元汇率显著走强，尤其是11月下旬釜山会谈后，双边关系出现明显缓和。泓德基金 表示，人民币兑美元离岸汇率呈加速升值态势，但人民币对一篮子货币汇率仍贬值4%左右，表明美元 贬值是人民币对美元汇率升值的主要原因。而人民币对非美主要贸易国家的货币均呈现出一定程度的贬 值，间接支撑了今年中国对非美经济体出口的高速增长。此外，出口企业结汇意愿的提升也是助推今年 人民币兑美元走强的因素之一。截止到今年11月末，外汇管理局数据显示，官方外汇储备约为3.35万亿 美元，较年初增加了1400亿美元以上。 泓德基金具体分析，人民币升值，意味着中国出口的商品在国际市场上变贵了，可能会给广 ...

【大河财立方 记者 程帅星 陈诗昂 文 朱哲 李博 冉衡 摄影】12月17日上午，2025债券市场高质量发展大会资产证券化专场会议在郑州举行。 在"做优增量、盘活存量"的政策导向下，如何通过资源资产化、资产证券化，把沉睡的资产转化为流动的资产，将资产转化成流动性强的金融产品成为当下 的关键命题。 在资产证券化专场会议"圆桌对话"环节，与会嘉宾重点聚焦企业如何通过资产证券化高效盘活存量资产，展开了深入交流与讨论。 对于资产证券化的战略意义，广西旅游发展集团财务管理部总经理林宝胜分享说，集团主要业务包括旅游、大健康、城建、科技、实业等，持有景区、酒 店、商业物业等重资产。对于集团来说，资产证券化绝非简单的融资工具，而是一场深刻的"资产革命"和战略转型的助推器。 林宝胜 林宝胜介绍，面对种类繁多的资产，要在内部进行系统性梳理，"摸底体检"并建立清晰的资产台账。总体来说，我们会将资产分为能产生稳定现金流的实物 资产、未来的收益权、应收账款等债权资产等五大类，并为每一类设计最具可行性的证券化路径。 安融信用评级有限公司副总裁曾颖锋在分享中，主要从评级机构视角，讲述在资产证券化产品中评级关注的重点以及什么样的基础资产算优 ...

导读：今年，是市场重新认识"固收+"的一年。从过去的"债券打低，股票增强"，到今天百花齐放 的"+"。"固收+"不再只是固收投资中的一个分支，而是延伸出多风险层次、多投资策略、多资产类别的基 金品类。在低利率时代下，"固收+"承载了大量的储蓄搬家和理财替代。 作为东方红资产管理的老朋友，我们曾经访谈过多位东方红"固收"基金经理，包括胡伟、纪文静、孔令 超、余剑峰等。在我们此前举办的"固收+"线下论坛中，也邀请了东方红"固收+"团队中的余剑峰进行圆桌 交流。每年我们的TOP 50固收基金经理中，也都有东方红"固收+"团队的基金经理。 当我们把这些"固收+"基金经理和其产品串联起来后，逐渐发现了一个完整的拼图。 他们的背后，是一个 寻求整体最优解、强调基本面投资、注重风险把控和产品分层的东方红"固收+"团队。 许多人或许不知道， 东方红资产管理是业内最早布局"固收+"的基金公司之一。 从2015年上半年开始布 局"固收+"业务以来，东方红资产管理一直在团队和规模上保持克制。等到2020年整体投研框架搭建完毕 后，才开始逐渐扩大团队规模和产品线。 为持有人创造长期价值，一直是刻在东方红资产管理的底层理念。经历了多年 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a report titled "2025-2035 Global Stock Market Decadal Outlook," which emphasizes a shift from the previous decade's "U.S. stock dominance" and warns of potential corrections in asset pricing [1] - The report suggests that the S&P 500's annualized nominal total return is expected to decline to 6.5% over the next decade, a significant drop from the 15% annualized return seen in the past ten years [1][3] Return Attribution Analysis - Earnings growth is projected to contribute positively, with an expected annual compound growth rate of approximately 6%, indicating robust fundamentals for U.S. stocks [3] - Dividend returns are anticipated to contribute around 1.4% to total returns [4] - Valuation adjustments are expected to be the largest drag on returns, with the current forward P/E ratio at 23x, which is historically high. A gradual contraction in valuation multiples is predicted to negatively impact total returns by about 1% annually [4] Global Market Opportunities - As U.S. stock returns are expected to decline, relative value in global assets is becoming more apparent. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 7.7% annualized return for global equities (MSCI ACWI), surpassing U.S. stocks [6] - Non-U.S. markets, both developed and emerging, are expected to outperform U.S. stocks due to structural advantages and more attractive valuations [8] Regional Performance Expectations - Emerging markets are projected to have a 10.9% annualized return, driven by strong EPS growth in China and India [10] - Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to yield a 10.3% return, supported by approximately 9% EPS growth and a 2.7% dividend yield [10] - Japan is forecasted to achieve an 8.2% return, bolstered by EPS growth and policy-led improvements in shareholder payouts [12] - Europe is expected to deliver a 7.1% return, with half of this driven by earnings and the other half by shareholder returns [10] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a shift from a concentrated investment strategy focused on U.S. stocks, particularly tech giants, to a more balanced global allocation to mitigate risks associated with declining Sharpe ratios [15] - It advocates for increasing exposure to emerging markets and non-U.S. developed markets to capture potential valuation recovery and benefits from currency fluctuations [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual performance of various asset classes in 2023, where traditionally opposing assets such as gold, dividends, and growth stocks have shown simultaneous gains, challenging the conventional inflation and deflation asset pricing framework [2][6][7]. Group 1: Asset Performance Analysis - In the first quarter of 2023, gold and growth stocks rose together, followed by a period in the second quarter where dividends and growth stocks also increased, and again in the third quarter where gold and growth stocks performed well together [2][4]. - The traditional asset pricing theory suggests that gold benefits from inflation, dividends are more attractive in deflationary environments, and growth stocks thrive in moderate inflation and risk-on conditions [6][7]. - The article posits that the current market dynamics cannot be solely explained by inflation or deflation, indicating that other factors, such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, are influencing asset prices [7][11]. Group 2: Macro Environment and Credit Cycles - The macroeconomic environment in China is characterized by a decline in overall prices, particularly in PPI, while excess liquidity is causing "scarce" assets to appreciate, reflecting a localized inflation phenomenon [11][15]. - The article emphasizes that the credit cycle framework is a more effective tool for understanding asset rotation in China, as it considers the underlying causes of inflation and deflation rather than just the outcomes [16][17]. - The credit cycle can be influenced by three main factors: new industry trends (e.g., AI), government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional demand from the private sector [19][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts that the credit cycle in China is likely to shift towards a "fiscal strong + credit weak" or "fiscal weak + credit weak" phase, influenced by high base effects and slowing fiscal stimulus [28][36]. - Key indicators such as the broad fiscal deficit pulse and private sector credit pulse are expected to show downward trends, indicating a potential tightening of credit conditions [30][32]. - The article concludes that without significant policy intervention, the market is likely to continue along its current trajectory, focusing on sectors that remain resilient amid a weakening credit cycle [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift in asset pricing and investment management, moving from traditional models to a more dynamic and adaptive approach that considers the non-linear relationships between assets and their roles within a portfolio [4][11][18]. Group 1: Asset Pricing Theory - Traditional asset pricing theories, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), are based on strict assumptions of market efficiency and rational investors, which fail to explain market anomalies like momentum and value effects [4][12]. - The article argues that asset prices are influenced not only by their expected returns and risks but also by their roles in the overall investment portfolio and the dynamic relationships with other assets [4][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The new investment philosophy focuses on systematically and proactively enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios rather than merely seeking absolute returns [4][11]. - The investment framework proposed is not about finding the "true value" of assets but about creating an adaptive system that can achieve stable growth across different market environments [7][16]. Group 3: Multi-Asset Allocation - The article discusses the importance of low correlation among assets in a multi-asset allocation strategy, which can significantly reduce the probability of negative monthly returns [22][23]. - A two-stage strategy combining CPPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance) and risk budgeting is suggested to enhance traditional methodologies and improve risk-adjusted returns [17][23]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the correlation between assets is dynamic and can change with market conditions, which poses risks to traditional asset allocation frameworks that rely on historical data [12][15]. - The concept of "free lunch" in asset allocation, derived from low correlation, may diminish as market environments evolve, necessitating a deeper understanding of the underlying factors driving asset correlations [15][18]. Group 5: Future of Asset Pricing - The future of asset pricing is seen as a transition from a focus on historical data to an understanding of technological trends, industry changes, and collective human behavior [34]. - The new asset pricing framework is described as a three-dimensional investment model centered around technological advancement, new productive forces, and consensus-driven narratives [18][28].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts in the U.S. is creating uncertainty in global markets, with traders expecting two more cuts this year while Federal Reserve officials express concerns about persistent inflation [1][15]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 4.25%-4.5% at the end of last year, but this followed a period of rates above 5% for two years, leading to significant capital inflows into the U.S. [3]. - The expectation of slower interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to renewed capital outflows from emerging markets, as higher U.S. interest rates attract funds [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Economy - The high U.S. interest rates limit the Chinese central bank's ability to lower domestic interest rates, affecting mortgage rates and housing market stimulation efforts [5]. - A strong U.S. dollar puts pressure on the Chinese yuan, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could contribute to domestic inflation [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The anticipation of interest rate changes has led to volatility in various sectors, with gold prices dropping significantly in response to reduced rate cut expectations [10]. - The financial sector benefits from a high-interest environment, with U.S. financial stocks performing well while other sectors, like technology, face challenges [10]. Group 4: External Trade Considerations - The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to rise, which may reduce consumer spending and impact export orders from China, particularly in manufacturing hubs like the Yangtze River Delta [11]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are closely monitored by businesses involved in foreign trade, as decisions made can significantly affect their operations [13]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies, such as selecting undervalued stocks with high dividends or investing in broad market indices, rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations driven by Federal Reserve communications [13][15].

Core Insights - The investment landscape is undergoing profound changes driven by "technological advancement, new productive forces, and collective consensus" as the new paradigm for asset pricing [2][3] - The traditional valuation models are becoming less effective, necessitating a shift towards quantitative discipline to translate qualitative insights into actionable investment strategies [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach emphasizes the balance between rational calculation and human insight, seeking optimal solutions through a dynamic equilibrium [1][2] - A strategic direction is established through qualitative research, which serves as a guiding compass for investment decisions [2] Group 2: Quantitative Tools - A precise navigation system is essential for executing investment strategies, consisting of two main components: CPPI technology for dynamic risk control and a risk budgeting model for resource allocation [3] - The CPPI technology includes mechanisms for dynamic adjustment of risk exposure based on net value performance and automatic asset allocation during market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Balancing Act - The essence of investment management lies in finding a delicate balance across multiple dimensions, including short-term versus long-term coordination and maintaining flexibility while adhering to core strategies [4][7] - The investment model aims to filter out short-term noise while capturing long-term signals, ensuring that the strategy remains robust against market volatility [6] Group 4: Communication and Adaptation - Clear communication with investors is prioritized, with regular reports to explain performance and investment rationale, helping to set rational expectations [8] - The investment process involves a step-by-step adjustment strategy to minimize market impact while ensuring that asset selection aligns with emerging productive forces [8] Group 5: Continuous Improvement - The investment methodology focuses on building a self-evolving system that withstands the test of time, with quantitative tools playing a crucial role in achieving investment objectives [9] - Each analysis, model optimization, and allocation adjustment is part of a continuous search for better solutions, emphasizing a sustainable approach over chasing short-term trends [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, leading to a corresponding reduction in Hong Kong's base rate by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to 4.5% [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - On September 18, the HKMA announced a reduction of the Hong Kong dollar base rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, following the Federal Reserve's rate cut [3]. - The HKMA's base rate is set based on the lower limit of the U.S. federal funds rate target range plus 50 basis points or the average of the overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [3]. - The recent rate cut comes after a period of tight liquidity in Hong Kong, where interbank borrowing rates had surged, with the overnight HIBOR reaching 4.03% on September 1 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the market had already priced in the recent rate cut, leading to limited short-term trading opportunities, but maintaining a positive long-term outlook for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - The potential for the Chinese yuan to appreciate is highlighted, with Hong Kong stocks being more sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions [2][5]. - The overall sentiment in the domestic market remains positive, with expectations of policy adjustments in response to the easing of U.S. monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The HKMA will continue to monitor market developments closely, as future U.S. rate cuts could impact Hong Kong's interest rate environment [4]. - There is a cautionary note regarding the potential for overpricing of easing expectations, which could lead to increased market volatility if contrary economic signals emerge [5][6].