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隆鑫通用(603766):自主出口发力推动Q3净利高增
HTSC· 2025-10-30 12:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 20.13 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 revenue of RMB 4.805 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.55% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 500 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 62.48% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 11.41% [1]. - The company's brand, "Wuji," is driving a strategic shift from low-end OEM to self-owned mid-to-high-end products, enhancing its export capabilities and profitability [1]. - The company has expanded its global footprint in three-wheeled vehicles, achieving coverage in key regions of West, East, and North Africa, and successfully entering Central and West Asia [2]. Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company experienced a slight decline in revenue compared to the previous quarter, attributed to adjustments in its OEM business share. However, sales of its self-branded products continued to grow, with a 24% year-over-year increase in sales of 250cc+ motorcycles, totaling 40,000 units. Export sales of 250cc+ motorcycles surged by 73% year-over-year, exceeding 20,000 units [2]. - The company also reported a 79.5% year-over-year increase in three-wheeled vehicle exports, reaching 45,000 units in Q3 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.15 percentage points year-over-year to 18.8%, driven by an increase in the sales proportion of self-owned brands. The net profit margin for Q3 rose to 10.4%, reflecting a 3.7 percentage point increase year-over-year [3]. - The company maintained low operating expense ratios, with sales expense ratio at 1.24%, management expense ratio at 2.4%, and R&D expense ratio at 2.0% [3]. Brand Development - The "Wuji" brand continues to expand its product lineup, becoming a key driver of revenue growth. The company is launching high-performance and personalized strategic new products in the domestic market while solidifying its leading position in the overseas market with self-developed mid-to-large displacement models [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.898 billion, RMB 2.356 billion, and RMB 2.846 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.41%. The expected EPS for these years is RMB 0.92, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.39 [5]. - The target price is based on a PE ratio of 17.5x for 2026, resulting in a target price of RMB 20.13, adjusted from a previous value of RMB 21.71 [5].