2025 年 10 月 13 日 若研究报 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯思沅 (8621)23297818× fengsy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 业绩增长稳健可期，引领价值 银行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 预计三季报上市银行呈现"营收增长略有放缓、利润维持正增趋势"，以稳为主的总基 调不变：根据我们对重点上市银行的预测，预计 9M25 上市银行营收同比增长 0.6% (1H25 为增长 1%)，归母净利润同比增长 0.8% (1H25 为增长 0.7%)。从不同类 型银行来看,国有行、股份行业绩稳定正增锚定行业趋势,优质区域性银行继续领跑, 不乏利润增速继续改善的银行。分类来看，预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 238 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year [4][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased by 1 basis point to 1.08%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 4.4 percentage points to 233% [4][10]. - The report highlights that net interest income continues to show stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in Q1 2025, contributing 0.8 percentage points to revenue growth [6][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 212,493.02 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 78,532.42 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.72% [5]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit growth rates for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 1.7%, 4.8%, and 5.9% respectively [10]. Loan and Deposit Performance - The company's total loans increased by 4.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with new corporate loans exceeding 150 billion yuan, particularly in technology and green sectors [6][9]. - Total deposits reached 5,627.965 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [11]. Key Ratios - The report indicates a net interest margin (NIM) of 1.59% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 2 basis points year-on-year but an increase of 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 24.22%, a decrease of 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [11].