Jefferies在一份报告中称，得益于净利息收入和 财富管理业务的强劲表现，汇丰公布的财季业绩好于预 期，并因此发布了高于市场平均预期的业绩展望。分析师写道，这家全球性 银行的业绩强劲超预期， 再加上结构性对冲带来的业绩可见度，使管理层有信心预测2026年的净利息收入至少将达到450亿美 元。这些分析师补充说，这一数字比预期高出15亿美元，意味着相对于市场平均预期有单位数的上行空 间。其年度成本预期所隐含的338亿美元成本基础优于预期。"我们猜测，考虑到竞争环境以及必要的AI 投资等因素，投资者将探究1%的成本增幅。" ...

中金发布研报称，考虑渣打集团(02888)净利息收入预期改善，该行上调公司2026年/2027年经调营业收 入预测2.7%/3.8%至219/225亿美元;维持2026年经调归母普通股净利润基本不变，上调公司2027年经调归 母普通股净利润预测1.7%至56亿美元。公司当前交易于1.2x/1.1x 2026E/2027E P/B。综合考虑业绩预期 与市场风险偏好变化，该行小幅上调公司目标价6.6%至227.27港元，对应1.3x/1.2x 2026E/2027E P/B与 14.8%的上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 中金主要观点如下： 2025年业绩符合该行预期 公司公布2025年业绩。2025全年经调口径(后同)营业收入YoY +6.1%至209亿美元，归母普通股净利润 YoY +25.4%至54亿美元;4Q25单季营业收入YoY +0.3%至48亿美元，归母普通股净利润YoY+20.0%至8亿 美元，业绩符合该行预期。 收入端韧性强，实现稳健增长 公司4Q25/2025A营业收入基本符合市场预期，拆分看： 公司4Q25单季净利息收入环比+8%，同比-1%，高于一致预期7.5%。主要由于4Q25 HIBOR高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank (00023) announced a net profit of HKD 947 million for the second half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 57% and a half-year drop of 58%, which is 34% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to further impairment of investment properties amounting to HKD 625 million and a one-time loss recorded by its joint venture, Guo Tong Trust in China [1] Group 1 - East Asia Bank's credit cost for the second half of 2025 remains high at 114 basis points, with approximately 77% of the accumulated provisions related to commercial real estate accounts [1] - Net interest income exceeded Goldman Sachs' forecast by 8%, benefiting from a decrease in Hong Kong interbank offered rates in the second half of 2025, which led to a recovery in Hong Kong's net interest margin [1] Group 2 - Following the earnings announcement, Goldman Sachs raised its profit forecasts for East Asia Bank for the years 2026 to 2028 by 3.7%, 1.4%, and 2.3% respectively, to HKD 4.079 billion, HKD 5.081 billion, and HKD 6.165 billion, accounting for the higher realized net interest margin and non-interest income in the second half of 2025, as well as management's commitment to achieving stronger fee income growth, although this was partially offset by a slight increase in operating expense forecasts [1]

前瞻 | 上市银行 2025 年年报： 业绩增速有望稳中向好，资产质量持续优化 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨超伦 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn 3、《详解基金 4Q25 银行持仓：板块 提升 0.04pcts 至 2.08%》2026-01-25 银行 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 风险提示：经济下滑超预期；研报信息更新不及时；政策落地不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 146,116.35 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 139,898.72 | 1、《1 月金融数据前瞻： 预计新增 贷款 5.1-5.25 万亿元，社融增速为 8.3%》2026-02-07 2026-01-31 分析师：戴志锋 报告摘要 核心观点：1、十一家银行业绩快 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [8]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94% for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 392% [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 337.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.01% [7]. - Net interest income is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, contributing to the overall revenue stability [8]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][12]. - The provision coverage ratio is forecasted to decrease to 391.79% by 2026, indicating a potential increase in credit risk [7][12]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 5.70 in 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 6.07 by 2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for China Merchants Bank is 0.76, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its book value [8]. - The dividend yield is approximately 5.4%, which is attractive for income-focused investors [9][8]. - The bank's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, particularly in the context of index fund flows [8].

Core Viewpoint - Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is expected to report year-over-year growth in earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, with key drivers including net interest income (NII), fee income, and loan balances, although rising expenses and weak asset quality present challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - FITB has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 4.52% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.01 per share, reflecting a 12.2% increase from the previous year [15]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $2.33 billion, indicating a 7.3% rise from the year-ago figure [15]. Group 2: Loan Growth and Net Interest Income - Overall loan demand remained resilient in Q4 2025, supporting FITB's loan growth, with expectations of a nearly 1% increase in total average loans and leases from the prior quarter [3]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is $194.9 billion, suggesting a nearly 1% rise from the previous quarter [4]. - FITB anticipates fourth-quarter adjusted NII to be stable to up 1% sequentially, with a consensus estimate of $1.54 billion, indicating a nearly 1% increase [5]. Group 3: Non-Interest Revenues - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rebounded in Q4 2025, likely boosting FITB's advisory revenues within commercial banking [6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for commercial banking revenues is $97.7 million, reflecting a 12.3% sequential rise [7]. - The consensus estimate for mortgage banking income is $55.1 million, indicating a 5.1% decrease from the prior quarter [8]. Group 4: Expenses and Asset Quality - FITB's expenses are expected to rise due to investments in technology and customer experience initiatives, with adjusted non-interest expenses projected to increase by 2% sequentially [11]. - The net charge-off (NCO) rate is expected to be around 40 basis points, a decrease from 1.09% in the previous quarter [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is $843.3 million, indicating a 4.7% rise from the prior quarter [13]. Group 5: 2025 Outlook - For the full year 2025, FITB expects adjusted NII to grow by 5.5%–6.5% year-over-year from $5.66 billion reported in 2024 [16]. - Average loans and leases are anticipated to increase by about 5% year-over-year [16]. - Non-interest income is projected to grow by 1%–2% year-over-year from $2.97 billion reported in 2024 [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Wells Fargo's fourth-quarter net interest income was $12.33 billion, slightly below market expectations of $12.43 billion [1] - Wells Fargo projects that its net interest income will reach approximately $50 billion by 2026, while market estimates are higher at $52.67 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) is expected to report increased quarterly revenues and earnings for the fourth quarter and 2025 results on January 13, before market open [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, BK's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by a rise in fee revenues and net interest income (NII), along with a provision benefit [2]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.97 per share, reflecting a 14.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is $7.40 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 22.7% [4]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for total investment services fees is $2.61 billion, suggesting a 7.1% increase from the year-ago quarter [5]. - Financing-related fees are estimated at $56 million, indicating a 5.7% year-over-year rise [5]. - The total fees and other revenues are projected to be $3.85 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year [7]. Net Interest Income (NII) - The consensus estimate for NII is $1.27 billion, indicating a 6.5% year-over-year rise [10]. - Despite recent interest rate cuts, NII is expected to increase due to robust loan growth and stable funding costs [9][10]. Expense Outlook - Overall expenses are anticipated to rise due to inflationary pressures and technology upgrades, with fourth-quarter non-interest expenses estimated at $3.34 billion, suggesting a marginal year-over-year decline [11]. - Management expects 2025 expenses to increase by 3% from $12.5 billion in 2024, driven by higher revenue-related expenses [12]. Earnings Surprise Potential - BK has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average beat of 9.1% over the trailing four quarters [3]. - The Earnings ESP for BK is +1.25%, indicating a high likelihood of beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate [13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has a constructive outlook for the U.S. banking sector in 2026, anticipating strong performance from major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America during the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings season, which is expected to lay the groundwork for sustained profit expansion and a bull market in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Growth - The upcoming earnings season starting in mid-January will be crucial, with major banks expected to deliver better-than-expected growth and optimistic outlooks, significantly impacting the U.S. and global stock markets [1] - The primary drivers of growth for large banks in 2026 will be the recovery of net interest income (NII) and the resilience of investment banking, wealth management, and equity trading businesses [1][2] Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Operating Leverage - Goldman Sachs expects NII to recover after hitting a low in mid-2024, continuing to rise until 2027, supported by stable expense growth and positive operating leverage [2][5] - The firm emphasizes that the NII recovery cycle remains strong and can extend into 2027, with sensitivity analyses indicating a potential 2% annualized increase in NII and a 3% contribution to earnings per share (EPS) from securities re-pricing [5][14] Group 3: Fee Growth and Cost Management - Core fees are projected to grow by approximately 7% year-over-year in 2026, driven by investment banking, wealth management, and card fees, contributing to overall revenue improvement [9][10] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that while expenses will not see explosive growth, they will remain stable, particularly in investment banking and capital markets [9] Group 4: Capital and Share Buybacks - Regulatory reforms under the Trump administration are expected to enhance capital returns, with potential buybacks projected to increase significantly to around $172 billion in 2026, representing a 24% year-over-year growth [11][18] - The current excess capital among major banks is estimated at $80 billion, which could rise to $205 billion with regulatory easing, providing substantial support for buybacks [11] Group 5: Preferred Bank Stocks - Based on the aforementioned factors, Goldman Sachs' preferred bank stock list includes Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp, and Wells Fargo, all of which are expected to benefit from improving NII, operational leverage, and strong capital positions [15][18] - The valuation metrics for these preferred stocks remain low, indicating potential for valuation recovery, especially in a declining interest rate environment [18]

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains an optimistic outlook on HSBC Holdings' revenue and profit growth for the fiscal year 2026, driven by three main factors [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The downward risk to net interest income will be offset by structural hedges and favorable factors such as reduced funding costs [1] - Non-interest income is expected to maintain strong growth momentum [1] - The Hong Kong capital market is anticipated to remain robust in fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 2: Credit Costs and Forecast Adjustments - Credit costs are expected to be manageable, as there are no significant signs of deterioration in commercial real estate credit risk in Hong Kong [1] - DBS has raised its profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 2% and 7% respectively [1] - The forecast for net interest income for fiscal years 2025-2027 has been increased to over $43 billion [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Ratings - The headwinds facing the bank's net interest income in fiscal year 2026 are smaller compared to the previous year, due to a reduced rate of interest cuts in the U.S. and a recovery in Hong Kong interbank offered rates from historical lows in Q2 2025 [1] - DBS reaffirms a "Buy" rating for HSBC, raising the target price from HKD 113.7 to HKD 139.2, which corresponds to a projected price-to-book ratio of 1.47 times for fiscal year 2026 [1]