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2026年01月主动权益基金配置月观点:周期热度持续,关注化工主题基金-20260108
Orient Securities· 2026-01-08 04:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In December 2025, the growth style dominated, with the China Securities Value Index rising 1.05% and the China Securities Growth Index rising 4.08%. The mid - cap style was significantly superior, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rising 2.28%, 6.17%, and 3.56% respectively. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the trading heat of the technology and manufacturing sectors cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. - In December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes such as Yongying High - end Equipment Selection A and Qianhai Kaiyuan Greater Ocean recorded large increases. From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [5][15][16]. - In January 2026, the mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [5][20][22]. - China Europe Chemical Industry A has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [5][24]. - In 2026, the low - volatility fund portfolio has 18 funds, and the new - star fund portfolio has 16 products, including 3 technology - themed, 3 cyclical - themed, 3 manufacturing - themed, 5 pharmaceutical - themed, 1 consumer - themed, and 1 financial - themed products [5][30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Style Change Tracking: Mid - cap Rise, Growth Strength - In December 2025, in terms of style indices, the growth style dominated, and the mid - cap style was significantly superior. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the technology and manufacturing sectors' trading heat cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. 2. Multi - perspective Fund Tracking: Continued Heat in Commercial Aerospace - From the market hot - spot fund perspective, in December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes recorded large increases. Some funds focusing on the technology innovation field also performed well due to increased related holdings [15]. - From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [16]. 3. January 2026 Allocation Suggestion: Mid - cap Blue - chips, Focus on Chemicals 3.1 Mid - cap Blue - chips, Cyclical Sector is King - The mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [20][22]. 3.2 Focus on China Europe Chemical Industry A - It has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [24]. - The fund manager's investment framework is to build an industrial map, select potential high - prosperity sub - industries based on supply - demand patterns and industry prosperity, and then choose undervalued and high - performance - elastic targets [25]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from overseas interest - rate cuts and domestic economic stabilization in the next 1 - 2 years. The supply inflection point has gradually emerged, and overseas chemical enterprises are withdrawing, which will promote the domestic fine - chemical industry [27][28]. - In the chemical sector, two types of opportunities are favored: cyclical opportunities in sub - industries with improved supply - demand patterns, and growth opportunities in fine - chemical products with high import dependence and upstream materials driven by downstream technological breakthroughs. The cyclical inflection point may be in the second half of 2026, and it's time to gradually allocate bottom - oriented pro - cyclical varieties [29]. 4. Fund Portfolio Tracking 4.1 Bottom - position Portfolio - Low - volatility Funds - Low - volatility funds can be used as the bottom - position of asset allocation portfolios. In January 2026, 18 low - volatility funds were selected, with stable excess returns, low - risk, and low - volatility characteristics [30]. 4.2 Satellite Portfolio - New - star Funds - In January 2026, the new - star fund portfolio included 16 products, covering technology, cyclical, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, consumer, and financial themes [32].