产能陆续投产，期待模制瓶放量加速 医疗器械 力诺药包（301188.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：孙颖 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 947 | 1,081 | 1,364 | 1,548 | 1,727 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 15% | 14% | 26% | 13% | 12% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 66 | 66 | 119 | 162 | 203 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -43% | 0% | 80% | 37% | 25% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.87 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, with expectations for the volume of borosilicate products to increase [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.081 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.23% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth in the coming years, with net profits projected at 143 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 269 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 115.9%, 47.3%, and 27.9% [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.38%, and a net profit of 41 million yuan, a significant increase of 63.36% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 19.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.11%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 26.47%, up 5.75 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin increased to 14.68%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [5] Product Development and Market Potential - The successful transition of the company's borosilicate glass injection bottles to A-level certification in April 2024 and the infusion bottles in October 2024 indicates readiness for mass production and sales [6] - The company plans to achieve an annual production capacity of over 11,000 tons of borosilicate medicinal molded bottles following the ignition of its second borosilicate molding furnace [6] - The company has set ambitious performance targets for its stock incentive plan, aiming for a 30% and 60% increase in revenue and profit for 2024 and 2025 respectively [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.314 billion yuan, 1.553 billion yuan, and 1.788 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.6%, 18.2%, and 15.1% respectively [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.61 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.16 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.0, 19.7, and 15.4 [8]