Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in uncertain market conditions, particularly highlighting the historical context of inflation and market downturns, and introduces the concept of a "Permanent Portfolio" as a strategy for risk management and steady returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines due to uncertain tariff policies, with economic growth forecasts being downgraded and rising unemployment and inflation expectations, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2]. - Historical parallels are drawn to 1981, where high inflation and declining asset values led to a challenging investment environment, with the S&P 500 index falling by 5% and long-term government bonds dropping by 9% [2]. - The article notes that in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to severe market volatility, with the Nasdaq index plummeting by 33% and bond markets experiencing rare declines [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy proposed by Harry Browne involves dividing investments equally among stocks, long-term government bonds, cash, and gold, aiming to balance risk and returns [3][4]. - The core logic of the Permanent Portfolio is to diversify risk, balance assets, and maintain long-term holdings, acknowledging the limitations of market predictions [4]. - Historical data indicates that the Permanent Portfolio strategy has achieved an annualized return of approximately 7% over the past 30 years, with volatility controlled below 9% and maximum drawdowns typically under 15% [5]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a practical tool to replicate the Permanent Portfolio, helping investors diversify risk across three dimensions [6]. - The investment allocation includes stocks to capture economic growth, bonds for stability during downturns, gold for inflation hedging, and cash for flexibility [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset diversification beyond just stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, suggesting the use of funds and international markets to enhance portfolio resilience [10]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article presents a performance comparison of the Permanent Portfolio against traditional 60/40 portfolios and single market investments, highlighting its lower volatility and drawdown during market downturns [22][24]. - Over the past five years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 7.8% with a volatility of 7.3%, significantly lower than that of the A-share and U.S. stock markets [25][26]. - The Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown was limited to -9.2% during the market crash of 2022, showcasing its strong risk management capabilities [26].