量化投资 . 以下文章来源于量化投资 ，作者十拳剑灵 十拳剑灵｜用数据做多元配置 • 百万实盘翻倍全程公开｜追求年年稳健盈利 • 陪你穿越牛熊 • 一起慢慢变富 收益又回到337万历史新高了！ 今年两个策略在天天基金和雪球同时上线，加仓和跟车的感觉，和往年特别不一样。少了点"下注"的紧张，多了点"种地"的平常心， 用三百多万本金积累 出了三百多万收益 。 | 家庭账户 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6,856,598.22 | | | | | 昨日收益 +24,312.98 | | 累计收益 +3,376,663.49 | | | 收益汇总 | | | 更新至12-24 | | 日收益 | 月收益 | 年收益 | 累计收益 | | 日历图 柱状图 | | | < 2025年 > | | 01月 | 02月 | 03月 | 04月 | | +13.02万 | -11.08万 | -8.79万 | -6,892.72 | | 05月 | 06月 | 07月 | 08月 | | +25.42万 | +22.53万 | +21.34万 | +23.35万 | | 09月 | ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a stable investment portfolio strategy, with a stock allocation of 30%-60%, bond allocation of 30%-55%, and commodity allocation of 10%-15% [4][6] - The current portfolio consists of approximately 29% in stocks, 58% in bonds, and 13% in commodities, with a weekly return of 0.52% and a year-to-date return of 3.79% [6][4] - Recent adjustments include increasing positions in solar energy and gold, reflecting a cautious approach to market conditions [6][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of self-awareness in investing, suggesting that understanding one's own risk tolerance and investment needs is crucial [10][11] - It highlights the tendency of investors to chase short-term gains while neglecting their own financial situation and risk capacity [10][12] - The concept of risk recognition is presented as the first step in investing, advocating for a diversified asset allocation strategy that aligns with individual risk profiles [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in uncertain market conditions, particularly highlighting the historical context of inflation and market downturns, and introduces the concept of a "Permanent Portfolio" as a strategy for risk management and steady returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines due to uncertain tariff policies, with economic growth forecasts being downgraded and rising unemployment and inflation expectations, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2]. - Historical parallels are drawn to 1981, where high inflation and declining asset values led to a challenging investment environment, with the S&P 500 index falling by 5% and long-term government bonds dropping by 9% [2]. - The article notes that in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to severe market volatility, with the Nasdaq index plummeting by 33% and bond markets experiencing rare declines [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy proposed by Harry Browne involves dividing investments equally among stocks, long-term government bonds, cash, and gold, aiming to balance risk and returns [3][4]. - The core logic of the Permanent Portfolio is to diversify risk, balance assets, and maintain long-term holdings, acknowledging the limitations of market predictions [4]. - Historical data indicates that the Permanent Portfolio strategy has achieved an annualized return of approximately 7% over the past 30 years, with volatility controlled below 9% and maximum drawdowns typically under 15% [5]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a practical tool to replicate the Permanent Portfolio, helping investors diversify risk across three dimensions [6]. - The investment allocation includes stocks to capture economic growth, bonds for stability during downturns, gold for inflation hedging, and cash for flexibility [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset diversification beyond just stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, suggesting the use of funds and international markets to enhance portfolio resilience [10]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article presents a performance comparison of the Permanent Portfolio against traditional 60/40 portfolios and single market investments, highlighting its lower volatility and drawdown during market downturns [22][24]. - Over the past five years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 7.8% with a volatility of 7.3%, significantly lower than that of the A-share and U.S. stock markets [25][26]. - The Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown was limited to -9.2% during the market crash of 2022, showcasing its strong risk management capabilities [26].