中银投策阿尔法
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不确定性中重估全球资产,“中银投策阿尔法”的含金量还在提升
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-11-12 07:36
Group 1: Market Overview - The theme of the global market this year is "economic cold, asset hot," with ongoing tariff storms affecting global capital flows [1] - The latest report from China Bank maintains its previous asset allocation strategy while making adjustments based on market developments [1][2] - The report highlights the strong performance of global equity markets driven by liquidity easing, with the Chinese ChiNext index rising by 53.67% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index up by 44.52% in the first three quarters [2][3] Group 2: A-shares and H-shares Performance - The report indicates that Hong Kong stocks have maintained a leading position in global equity markets, with significant inflows from southbound funds [3][4] - A-shares are expected to experience a second wave of upward movement as internal and external risk factors weaken [3][4] - The overall performance of the Chinese stock market has shown resilience, with the total return of the Wind All A index exceeding 20% [4] Group 3: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market has faced challenges due to the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs," which have negatively impacted stock performance and raised concerns about U.S. Treasury bonds [6][11] - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by 9.83% in the first three quarters, while major currencies like the euro and yen have appreciated significantly [7][11] - The report suggests that the U.S. Treasury's status as a safe asset is being questioned, marking a shift in market sentiment [6][11] Group 4: Gold as an Investment - Gold has emerged as a preferred investment choice amid the changing global landscape, with significant price increases of 47.01% for London gold and 39.76% for RMB gold in the first three quarters [8][12] - The report anticipates that gold will continue its upward trend, although short-term adjustments may occur due to profit-taking [8][12] - Investors are advised to reassess their asset allocations, particularly regarding the overexposure to U.S. dollar assets [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report predicts that the global economy will remain uncertain, but the market is expected to benefit from renewed liquidity as the Federal Reserve resumes its rate-cutting cycle [10][11] - The Chinese A-share market is seen as having significant growth potential, with a slow bull market entering a critical phase [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy, particularly in light of the evolving dynamics in the U.S. and global markets [10][12]