Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a downward adjustment driven by multiple factors, including tightening liquidity, central bank policies, strong stock market performance, and increasing redemption pressures from investment products [2][3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, the bond futures market saw collective declines, with the 30-year main contract down by 1.31%, the 10-year down by 0.51%, the 5-year down by 0.31%, and the 2-year down by 0.13% [1][2]. - The previous day also recorded declines across the same contracts, indicating a consistent downward trend in bond prices [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Adjustment - The tightening of liquidity is a primary driver, with high funding costs and an inverted yield curve discouraging institutions from leveraging [2][3]. - The central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing debt market risks has led to a more conservative liquidity management approach, dampening market expectations for monetary easing [2][3]. - The strong performance of the stock market, driven by a technology bull market, has created a "see-saw" effect, putting additional pressure on the bond market [2]. - There are signs of increased redemptions from investment products, raising concerns about negative feedback loops in the bond market [2][7]. Group 3: Redemption Trends - Since the beginning of the year, bond yields have risen, leading to an inversion between short-term funding rates and long-term bond yields, reflecting investor concerns about liquidity [5]. - Recent data indicates that short and medium-term bond investment products have experienced slight declines, reminiscent of a previous small-scale redemption wave [6]. - Analysts suggest that while there are signs of redemption pressure, it remains manageable for now, but further adjustments in the bond market could exacerbate these pressures [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall monetary policy remains unchanged, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts, which could influence the long-term trend of the bond market [9]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face adjustment pressure in the spring, stabilizing between 1.8% and 2.0%, with a likelihood of dropping below 1.6% by year-end [9]. - Future market conditions may resemble a slow bull market, with increased volatility anticipated [9][10]. - Investment opportunities may arise from market fluctuations and yield increases, while risks could stem from potential adjustments in monetary policy if the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [9][10].