1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market entered a window of speculation on monetary easing expectations last week, with interest rates showing a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are strongly supported by relatively loose capital interest rates, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years, and pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [2][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On March 5, the central bank announced a 3 - month (91 - day) 800 billion yuan repurchase operation. With 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchases maturing in March, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan was achieved. As of March 6, the outstanding scale of 3 - month repurchases was 2.7 trillion yuan [5]. - In February, the central bank injected 50 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through open - market treasury bond trading, 50 billion yuan less than in January [7]. - The 2026 economic growth target is set at 4.5% - 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4%. New policy - based financial instruments worth 800 billion yuan will be issued, which is expected to boost fixed - asset investment [8]. - At the economic theme press conference on March 6, relevant departments elaborated on the macro - policy orientation for 2026. The NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank will work together to amplify the "combination punch" effect of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From March 2 to March 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting 161.6 billion yuan in total, with 1.525 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. It is expected that 427.6 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from March 9 to March 13 [14]. - Despite the large - scale withdrawal of base currency by the central bank through short - term reverse repurchases at the beginning of March, the capital market remained generally loose. DR001 was below 1.3% for three days during the week. As of March 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.388%, 1.492%, 1.319%, and 1.415% respectively, with changes of 4.78BP, - 1.54BP, 0.05BP, and - 8.85BP compared to March 2 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 717.2 billion yuan, an increase of 263.25 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 587.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 78.77 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing scale of 129.21 billion yuan, an increase of 342.02 billion yuan from the previous week [22]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank CDs decreased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year inter - bank CDs of state - owned banks decreased by 4.13BP and 1.42BP respectively; those of joint - stock banks decreased by 2.93BP and 2.19BP respectively [28]. - In the secondary market, most - term inter - bank CDs showed a downward trend supported by relatively loose liquidity [29]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance total of 606.484 billion yuan, a maturity total of 488.205 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 118.279 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of treasury bonds and local bonds in the first week of March was slightly behind the same period [31]. - As of March 6, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2026 was about 0.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 2.02 trillion yuan, both higher than the average of the same period from 2022 - 2025 [32]. - The net supply of local bonds increased last week. Among them, 4 treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 1 billion yuan; 30 local bonds were issued, with a net financing of 256.229 billion yuan; 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 136.95 billion yuan [40]. - As of last week, 0.8 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds had been issued, with long - term and ultra - long - term bonds accounting for about 92.32%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales included Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Henan [43]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Last week, long - term bonds showed a volatile trend in the speculation of monetary easing expectations during the Two Sessions, and the yield curve steepened. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds remained above 9%, and their investment value gradually became prominent [32]. - The turnover rates of the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) increased last week. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250022) was 21.677 billion yuan, an increase of about 38.66% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 4.91%, an increase of about 1.53 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year CDB bond (250220) was 352.135 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.82% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 96.88%, an increase of about 55.67 percentage points [46]. - The average spread between the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the second - active bond (250016) was - 0.04BP; the average spread between the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) and the second - active bond (250215) widened compared to the previous week [48]. - The 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread reached 49.52BP, and the 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread widened to 99.54BP. The term spread may still widen [54]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed last week, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of March 6, the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the 10 - year treasury bond was 19.90BP, narrowing by 2.57BP from the previous week; the spread between the 30 - year local bond and the 30 - year treasury bond was 20.88BP, widening by 0.14BP from the previous week [57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leverage trading was generally at a high level. In the cash market, large banks strengthened their selling efforts, with an increased preference for holding treasury bonds within 5 years. Small and medium - sized banks continued to take profits on treasury bonds within 10 years. Insurance companies increased their buying efforts. Securities firms continued to net - buy treasury bonds between 5 - 10 years and tried to increase their positions in policy - financial bonds between 5 - 10 years. Funds still preferred policy - financial bonds [63][73]. - In January 2026, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.30%, a decrease of about 0.07 percentage points from December 2025. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in January 2026 were about 111.11%, 191.81%, and 132.51% respectively [63]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week. The average daily leverage trading volume was about 8.64 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 5.97% week - on - week; the settlement price of wire rod futures decreased by 5.71% week - on - week; the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 2.04% week - on - week; the cement price index decreased by 0.37% week - on - week; the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 2.02% week - on - week [88]. - The CCFI index decreased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.75% week - on - week [88]. - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.53% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 5.02% week - on - week [88]. - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.41% and 1.78% respectively week - on - week [88]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 6.92 [88]. 3.6 Outlook for the Future - The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are supported by loose capital, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years. Pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [90].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, bond trading can still be relatively optimistic. The profit - taking operation in the first few working days after the holiday was not strong. Driven by the risk - aversion sentiment, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fell below 1.8% again, indicating that the callback of the resistance level around 1.8% was not effective. The top of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has moved down, and the phased downward trend continues. There are still bullish driving factors in March, and there is still a chance for the long - end yield to decline. It is recommended to choose the 10 - year variety with low volatility [4][21] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Geopolitical Conflicts and the Situation of Bonds around the Two Sessions - **Trading Logic after the Festival**: The trading logic of bonds after the festival has not changed much, still following the pre - festival rhythm. After the festival, liquidity is sufficient, and the probability of interest rate cuts during the "Two Sessions" is not high, so the trading sentiment in the bond market may cool down. The relatively loose liabilities of large banks at the beginning of the year drove the increase in the activity of the pre - festival allocation disk, but this may weaken in March. The issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds is still a major concern, and the detailed issuance plan of local bonds in March may pose pressure [10] - **Yield Fluctuation in the First Week after the Festival**: The yield fluctuated greatly in the first week after the festival. The surface trigger factor for the initial rise in yield was the relaxation of real - estate policies in first - tier cities, but the underlying factor was trading profit - taking. The relative weakening of the yield's allocation value after the festival, the continuous increase in supply, and the cooling of the trading of the monetary easing expectation led to an increase in the motivation for profit - taking [10] - **Short - term Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Bonds**: Geopolitical conflicts mainly affect risk preference and asset price comparison in the short term. On February 28, when the inter - bank bond market opened, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by geopolitical conflicts led to a decline in the long - end yield by more than 1 BP. Although the risk sentiment may be under pressure in the short term, the impact on domestic bond yields may be limited, and the adjustment is likely to be one - time and short - term. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is accelerating, and the central bank has adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales, but exchange rate changes are not the main factor affecting the recent trend of domestic interest rates [13] - **Medium - term Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Bonds**: Geopolitical conflicts affect bonds through crude oil prices and inflation transmission in the medium term. After the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, the crude oil price soared, and the domestic CPI energy - related sub - items also rose. Since the beginning of this year, the rise of bulk commodities such as non - ferrous metals and the increase in related stock sectors have intensified inflation concerns. The current geopolitical conflict and the possible short - term rise in crude oil prices may trigger a resonance of inflation expectations, and expected trading may become the main line for some time [15][16] - **Monetary Policy Expectations around the Two Sessions**: Any policy increment in the real - estate or consumption fields may lead to pressure on ultra - long - term Treasury bonds. Policy increments related to fiscal policy may be realized through the expansion of special Treasury bonds, which will increase the supply pressure of ultra - long - term government bonds and may lead to negative pricing of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. The probability of an interest rate cut around the Two Sessions is not high, and a reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. A single reserve requirement ratio cut may have limited impact on the short - end, but it is beneficial for the long - end to play the game of easing expectations, compressing the term spread and making the yield curve slightly flatter [17][19]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The credit performance at the beginning of the year was lackluster, and government bonds drove the growth of social financing. In the context of the front - loaded government bond issuance and the weak recovery of corporate medium - and long - term loans, the growth rate of social financing in the first half of 2026 may continue a gentle downward trend [1][6][10] - The increase in the M1 growth rate in January 2026 was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor, and the divergence between the M2 growth rate and the social financing growth rate might be affected by multiple factors such as the increase in the scale of foreign exchange settlement and the low base of non - bank deposits [2][12][16] - The large increase in fiscal deposits led to a withdrawal of funds, and the improvement in liquidity might be due to weak credit demand or the central bank's use of structural tools. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival [3][19][21][23] 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In January 2026, the new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan. Considering the Spring Festival factor, credit demand was even weaker. Corporate credit increased by 44,500 yuan billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3,300 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 31,800 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2,800 billion yuan. Resident medium - and long - term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 146.6 billion yuan, mainly dragged down by the weak real estate market [1][6] Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new scale of government bonds in January 2026 was 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of social financing may continue to decline gently [1][10] M1 and M2 Growth Rate Situation - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 4.9%, mainly due to the Spring Festival misalignment factor, which pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in January by about 1.3 percentage points [2][12][14] - From November last year to January this year, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 9.0%, while the growth rate of the social financing stock slowed down by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2%. The increase in the foreign exchange settlement ratio and the large year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits might be the reasons for the divergence between the two [2][16] Liquidity Situation - The increase in foreign exchange settlement did not form liquidity injection, and the large increase in fiscal deposits in January led to a withdrawal of liquidity. However, the liquidity was actually very loose in January. One reason was the weak credit demand, and the other was the possible use of structural tools by the central bank [3][19][21] Bond Market Outlook - Currently, social financing is weak. Under the expectation of the use of aggregate monetary tools and loose money, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival, with short - term interest rates likely to decline further, and the dumbbell strategy on the curve is relatively more advantageous [3][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Due to the marginal weakening of December's consumption, investment, and new residential credit data, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there are still expectations of monetary easing, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upside space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly experience shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, the view reference is shock consolidation, and the core logic is the decreased short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures had a narrow - range shock consolidation yesterday, are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Weak December data leads to expectations of monetary easing, supporting treasury bond futures, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the upside [5].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, breaking historical price barriers, which has led to a strong performance in the gold stock sector in China [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 28, international gold prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching a peak of $5311.58 per ounce and COMEX gold futures hitting $5306 per ounce [1]. - As of January 28, London gold was priced at $5277.25 per ounce, up 1.83%, while COMEX gold futures were at $5268.4 per ounce, up 3.66%, both gaining over $100 per ounce in a single day [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, international gold prices have increased from around $4300 to nearly $5300, marking a rise of nearly $1000 in less than a month [3]. Group 2: Impact on Gold Stocks - The surge in gold prices has led to a wave of limit-up trading in the A-share gold sector, with over 30 gold concept stocks hitting their daily limit [1]. - Notable stocks such as China Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Yuguang Gold have achieved consecutive limit-up trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Major gold stock ETFs have also reached historical highs, with the largest gold stock ETF (517520) hitting a new high of 3.095 yuan [1]. Group 3: Jewelry Prices - The prices of gold jewelry have also increased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao reporting prices above 1600 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 40-43 yuan in just two days [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach as high as $6400 per ounce this year, with an average price forecast of $5375 per ounce [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing increasing demand from private investors and central banks [5]. - The People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, with a reported 7415 million ounces as of December 2025, and has been purchasing gold for 14 consecutive months [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by significant increases in gold prices and favorable market conditions [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 7.59%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 20.01%), Mankalon (up 19.96%), and Chifeng Gold (up 10.36%) [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) rose by 10.02%, with the latest price reported at 2.5 yuan [1]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Spot gold prices increased by $100 in a single day, marking a 1.93% rise and surpassing $5,280 per ounce [2]. - Multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a shift in European countries' stance on U.S. debt, are contributing to a weakened appeal of dollar assets and an accelerated pace of global central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2]. - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold, collectively accounting for 63.58% of the index [2].

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has rapidly increased, surpassing key levels of $5000 and $5100, with predictions suggesting it may reach $6000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by various market factors [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Hunan Gold leading at a 10.01% increase and China Gold rising by 9.96% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) is currently priced at 2.23 yuan, with its total scale reaching 172 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Société Générale has revised its gold price forecast, stating that the earlier prediction of $5000 per ounce has been achieved ahead of schedule, and now anticipates a potential rise to $6000 per ounce, which may be a conservative estimate [1]. - The report highlights that hedge fund positions in gold have reached historical highs, while central bank demand appears to be declining [1]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Over the past eight weeks, gold ETFs have recorded significant net inflows, accumulating 93 tons, bringing total holdings to 3120 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to the previous year [1]. - China Galaxy Securities notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, may lead to increased European capital repatriation and a rise in gold purchases by central banks, potentially exceeding previous expectations [1]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Rising regional risks in the Middle East are further stimulating demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1]. - The selection process for the new chair of the Federal Reserve is leaning towards a pragmatic and accommodative policy, which is expected to weaken the attractiveness of dollar assets and drive funds towards precious metals [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent upward trend in the government bond futures market, particularly in long-term bonds, indicates a flattening of the government bond yield curve, driven by improved trading sentiment and expectations of monetary easing [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a recovery in trading sentiment, primarily due to rising expectations for monetary easing [1] - The cooling of the equity market has led to a diversion of funds towards the bond market [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank has exceeded expectations in injecting medium- to long-term liquidity, ensuring a stable funding environment [1] - Recent economic data releases have not significantly impacted the bond market, suggesting resilience in the face of economic fluctuations [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The warming trend in the bond market is expected to continue into the first quarter [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillating consolidation". The core reason is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillating consolidation market. In the short term, both the upside and downside spaces are limited. On one hand, there is still a problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the policy side clearly proposes to support technological innovation and promote the domestic consumption cycle, so the future monetary and credit environment is still expected to be loose. On the other hand, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weakening - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating - **Reference View**: Oscillating consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. Currently in an oscillating consolidation market, short - term upside and downside spaces are limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand and policy support for innovation and consumption, future monetary policy is expected to be loose. However, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. So, short - term treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a mostly positive trend on January 19, with the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 22,200.00 yuan/kg and reaching a high of 23,577.00 yuan, marking a 2.18% increase [1] - The market sentiment for silver is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with various institutions providing insights on future movements [2] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that recent U.S. economic data reflects resilience, and several Federal Reserve officials have expressed a negative stance on interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to a consensus that rates will remain unchanged in January [2] - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains tense, and U.S. pressure regarding Greenland and tariffs on several European countries are contributing to the ongoing challenges in the global order, which is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for precious metals [2] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlighted that the U.S. plans to impose tariffs until the "complete acquisition of Greenland," which has been met with strong opposition from eight European countries, indicating a lack of substantial response from Europe despite rising gold and silver prices [2] - Ningzheng Futures suggested that potential changes in the Federal Reserve chair candidates could disrupt expectations for monetary easing, leading to increased risk aversion and a renewed strength in precious metals, although caution is advised regarding excessive bullish sentiment on silver [2]