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黄金不仅输给了白银,还输给了它
财富FORTUNE· 2025-12-18 13:06
Core Insights - The article highlights the rising importance of platinum in the hydrogen energy revolution, particularly in fuel cell technology and green hydrogen production [1][3][4]. Group 1: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have surged nearly 100% this year, rising from approximately $900 to $1800 per ounce, making it the second-best performing precious metal after silver [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 26.4 to 30 tons in the global platinum market by 2025, marking the third consecutive year of shortage [3][4]. - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, which faces structural challenges such as unstable electricity supply and rising mining costs, limiting production capacity [4]. Group 2: Industrial Demand for Platinum - The automotive sector remains the largest industrial consumer of platinum, primarily for diesel vehicle emissions control [5]. - Recent changes proposed by the European Commission to relax carbon emission standards for new vehicles could provide additional support for platinum demand [5]. - Platinum is also a critical material in the hydrogen energy sector, with growing government commitments to net-zero emissions driving the development of hydrogen projects [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Developments and Market Sentiment - Efforts are underway in China, Japan, and Europe to reduce platinum usage in fuel cells or find alternatives, which presents a dual impact on demand [6]. - The current market pricing reflects optimism about industry expansion, with increased investment interest in platinum as a relatively undervalued asset compared to gold [6][7]. - The narrative surrounding platinum has shifted from being an auxiliary material for traditional combustion engines to becoming a core component of future energy infrastructure, positioning it as a "technology metal" and "energy metal" [7][8]. Group 4: Price Predictions and Future Outlook - Analysts have differing predictions for platinum prices in 2026, ranging from $1550 to $2300 per ounce, indicating uncertainty in future market conditions [8]. - The practical application of hydrogen technology, as evidenced by the use of Toyota's Mirai at the G20 summit, suggests that the revaluation of platinum's worth is underway [8].
加氢站关停潮下,氢燃料电池车难行
Group 1: Industry Overview - The global automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification, with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) gaining attention due to their zero emissions and long driving range [2] - Major automakers like Toyota, Hyundai, and Honda have invested heavily in hydrogen FCVs, launching models such as Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity, and Hyundai Nexo [2] - Despite the investments, the hydrogen industry faces challenges, including high purchase prices and operational costs of FCVs, leading to low consumer demand and insufficient hydrogen station utilization [2][3] Group 2: Market Challenges in the U.S. - In California, a lawsuit has been filed against Toyota by hundreds of Mirai owners, claiming the company misled consumers about the convenience of hydrogen refueling [3] - The number of operational hydrogen stations in the U.S. is declining, with only 51 public and 21 private stations reported as of July 2025, significantly below the required infrastructure for widespread FCV adoption [4] - The rising cost of hydrogen, from $13 per kilogram in 2022 to $36 per kilogram in 2024, exacerbates the challenges faced by FCV owners [4] Group 3: European Market Developments - Stellantis has halted its hydrogen fuel cell technology development due to limited refueling infrastructure and high funding requirements, indicating a lack of commercial viability for hydrogen FCVs in the near term [8][9] - The European hydrogen station network is underdeveloped, with only about 250 stations across the EU as of 2024, far below initial targets [11] - Several hydrogen stations in Europe have closed due to profitability issues, highlighting the slow commercialization of hydrogen FCVs [10] Group 4: Japan's Hydrogen Strategy - Japan has been proactive in developing a hydrogen society, with significant government investment in hydrogen infrastructure and FCVs [12] - However, the number of operational hydrogen stations in Japan has decreased from 161 in April 2024 to 151 by July 2025, reflecting operational difficulties [13] - The high cost of hydrogen FCVs, such as the Toyota Mirai priced at approximately ¥7.414 million to ¥8.6108 million, remains a barrier to consumer adoption [13] Group 5: South Korea's Hydrogen Initiatives - South Korea has launched the new generation of Hyundai Nexo, with a price range of 7.644 million to 8.345 million KRW, but faces challenges in infrastructure and safety incidents [17][19] - The number of hydrogen stations in South Korea is 218, but safety concerns and supply chain issues have hindered growth [18] - The South Korean government plans to provide subsidies for 11,000 hydrogen FCVs and 2,000 hydrogen buses by 2025, aiming to enhance infrastructure and reduce costs for users [20]