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格局生变,优选成长
Group 1: Industry Overview - The cosmetics retail sales in China grew by 3.9% year-on-year from January to September 2025, slightly underperforming the overall retail market by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a stable demand environment [4][14]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin are experiencing a shift, with Tmall showing signs of recovery due to flash sales and member subsidies, while Douyin's growth has slightly slowed down [17][20]. - The demand for high-end and cost-effective products is increasing, while the mid-range segment is facing pressure due to a more conservative consumer environment [5][41]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The trend of domestic brands replacing foreign ones is slowing down, with leading foreign brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder showing signs of recovery in the Chinese market [23][24]. - The growth of domestic brands is becoming more differentiated, with some brands like Proya and Shiseido experiencing declines, while others like Youngor and Shanghai Jahwa continue to grow [23][24]. - The industry is witnessing an acceleration in the multi-brand matrix among leading companies, which is expected to increase market concentration [27][28]. Group 3: Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Ruya Chen, Shumei Co., and Maogeping, which are expected to benefit from their brand strength and market positioning [3][54]. - Companies like Dekang Oral Care and Shanghai Jahwa are noted for their stable fundamentals and potential for marginal improvement, while others like Jinbo Biological and Huaxi Biological are anticipated to reach turning points [54]. - Ruya Chen's self-owned brand, Zhenjia, has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 345% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating strong brand development capabilities [60].