上 市 公 司 美容护理 2025 年 08 月 26 日 珀莱雅 (603605) ——业绩符合预期，多品牌&多品类增长逻辑再强化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 91.99 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 121.10/73.73 | | 市净率 | 6.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 36,373 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,868.38/12,473.17 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.33 | | 资产负债率% | 29.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 396/395 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q2 2025 operational data, showing performance in line with expectations, with a double-digit revenue growth overall, while the main brand Anta experienced low single-digit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's brand revenue growth was low single-digit, while the first half of the year showed mid single-digit growth, which was below internal expectations due to several factors [2]. - The company accelerated store upgrades in lower-tier cities, impacting short-term sales but laying a foundation for future growth [2]. - The competitive landscape during the online 618 shopping festival led to a cautious approach on discounts to maintain brand health [2]. - A new e-commerce head was appointed to enhance product differentiation across platforms, with expectations for improved sales performance in the second half of the year [2]. Group 2: New Retail Formats and Other Brands - Anta's new retail formats, such as champion stores and SV collection stores, have shown significant effectiveness, with champion stores achieving 80% higher sales efficiency than regular stores [3]. - FILA continued its steady growth with mid single-digit revenue growth in Q2, driven by a recovery in main products and strong e-commerce performance [3]. - New brands like Descente, KOLON, and Maia Active showed exceptional growth, with Descente exceeding 40% and KOLON over 70% in Q2 [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Financial Outlook - Inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around five months for Anta and FILA [4]. - The company maintained effective cost control, which is beneficial for stabilizing overall operating profit margins [4]. - The multi-brand matrix is seen as a valuable asset, with expectations for continued growth potential, maintaining a "buy" rating and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4].

Summary of Conference Call for Hailan Home Company Overview - **Company**: Hailan Home (海澜之家) - **Industry**: Retail, specifically men's clothing and multi-brand retailing Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2, Hailan Home's offline sales maintained single-digit growth, benefiting from its high cost-performance positioning and category expansion [2][4] - The main business profitability is expected to grow alongside revenue, although there may be slight fluctuations in scale profit due to a one-time gain from the acquisition of Spobz in the same quarter last year [2][5] - Revenue for Spobz from May to December 2024 was approximately 990 million yuan, with a profit of about 67 million yuan, significantly contributing to the company's revenue [3][10] Business Expansion and New Initiatives - The JD Outlet business experienced a slowdown in expansion speed in Q2 due to the retail off-season and refinement of the single-store model [2][6] - Hailan Home has signed contracts for over 17 new stores, with an acceleration in store openings expected from Q3 onwards, particularly benefiting from higher winter product prices and gross margins [2][6][11] - The valuation of Hailan Home has adjusted to approximately 14 times the expected earnings for 2025, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% over the past two years and a current dividend yield above 6% [2][7] Strategic Focus - Since 2017, Hailan Home has attempted a multi-brand matrix but has shifted focus towards new retail formats due to macroeconomic impacts, with subsidiary brands contributing around 2 billion yuan in revenue but limited profit [2][8][9] - The establishment of Spobz and the JD Outlet project represents a strategic pivot towards new retail formats, with Spobz focusing on online sales of sports brand excess inventory and a partnership with Adidas for the FGC project targeting lower-tier cities [2][9][10] Market Outlook - Hailan Home's main brand contributes significantly to profits, and its performance fluctuations directly impact dividends. The company expects revenue to rebound in Q2 2025, supported by partnerships and channel innovations [4][12] - The JD Outlet is positioned as a new growth driver, with expectations for rapid expansion and increased contributions to revenue and profit in the latter half of the year [2][15][19] Competitive Positioning - Hailan Home holds a 5% market share in the domestic men's clothing market, maintaining the top position for 11 consecutive years, with growth potential from channel structure innovations and an increase in direct-operated stores [12][19] - The e-commerce segment has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from over 2.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.4 billion yuan in 2024, a 36% year-on-year increase [12][13] Risks and Considerations - The company is addressing the challenges posed by a decrease in offline customer traffic and is adjusting its product structure to mitigate profit drag from underperforming subsidiaries [4][12][13] - The JD Outlet's initial development phase has raised concerns about its short-term expansion pace, but the company remains optimistic about its long-term potential [14][19] Additional Important Information - The JD Outlet's brand mix includes major sports brands like Adidas, Nike, and Puma, with significant discount strategies in place to attract consumers [16][17] - The profitability of JD Outlet stores is projected to be strong, with potential contributions of over 6 billion yuan in revenue and around 1 billion yuan in net profit if 300 stores are established [18]

Core Insights - The strategic vision of Up Beauty Co., led by CEO Lv Yixiong, emphasizes long-term focus and multi-brand matrix, which is increasingly evident in the cosmetics industry development in the first half of 2025 [1] - Up Beauty Co. leverages a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" approach to navigate challenges in the global beauty market, achieving record sales during the 618 shopping festival [1] Group 1: Main Brand Performance - The main brand, Han Shu, has maintained a leading position in the competitive beauty market, ranking as the top beauty brand on Douyin for two consecutive years [2] - During the 618 period, Han Shu achieved significant sales growth across major platforms, with Tmall sales increasing by over 46% and Douyin sales reaching top rankings in multiple categories [2][7] - The Han Shu X Peptide series achieved over 100 million in sales during the 618 event, showcasing the brand's strong research and innovation capabilities [4] Group 2: New Brand Growth - Newpage, a brand focused on infant skincare, reported a revenue of 376 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 146.3% [11] - During the 618 shopping festival, Newpage saw triple-digit growth across major e-commerce platforms, with Tmall sales increasing by 106% within the first 3.5 hours [11] - The brand's "medical-research co-creation" model has proven effective, leading to significant sales of its star product, the infant soothing cream [12] Group 3: Emerging Brand Success - Anminyou, a brand targeting sensitive skin, experienced a sales increase of over 65% during the 618 period, with notable growth across various platforms [21] - The brand's star product, Qinghao Soothing Essence, ranked second on Douyin's anti-wrinkle essence list during the 618 event, indicating strong market presence [26] Group 4: Strategic Development and Innovation - Up Beauty Co. aims to reach a target of 30 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on a multi-brand and multi-category business model [27] - The company has invested in AI-driven smart factories, enhancing production capacity and efficiency, with a daily output of 2 million bottles [27] - Up Beauty Co. has established a robust research and development framework, including a scientific committee of over 300 researchers, to drive innovation and product development [29]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.156 billion yuan for FY25H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a net profit of 604 million yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, with an expected annual dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% [1]. Revenue Analysis - By brand, the main brand JNBY achieved a revenue of 1.760 billion yuan in FY2025H1, growing 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 55.8% of total revenue, driven mainly by online channels and store expansion. Other brands such as 速写/jnby by JNBY/LESS reported revenues of 388 million, 476 million, and 339 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6.0%, -0.6%, and 0.8% respectively. The newly acquired brands OMG and B1OCK saw significant growth, with other brands generating 194 million yuan, up 147.3% year-on-year. The total number of stores increased to 960, 316, 517, 259, and 52 for each brand, showing growth of 36, 6, 24, 19, and 14 stores respectively compared to the end of FY2024 [1][2]. Channel Performance - In FY2025H1, online revenue reached 602 million yuan, growing 11.9% year-on-year. Direct sales and distribution channel revenues were 1.117 billion and 1.437 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.7% and 14.2% respectively. The number of stores in these channels was 491 and 1,634, showing a decrease of 24 and an increase of 126 stores compared to the end of FY2024. The distribution channel accelerated its store opening pace, contributing to rapid revenue growth, while same-store sales remained stable [2]. Profitability and Outlook - The overall profitability remained stable, with a gross margin of 65.2%, unchanged year-on-year. The sales and management expense ratios were 32.3% and 8.6%, increasing by 1.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively, mainly due to marketing activities celebrating the 30th anniversary of the JNBY brand. Net profit margin stood at 19.3%, also stable year-on-year. Inventory turnover days increased to 140 days, up 5 days year-on-year, influenced by a warm winter and a decrease in cotton and down sales, as the company prepared inventory ahead of the 2025 Spring Festival. Looking ahead to FY2025H2, the multi-brand matrix is expected to continue to perform well, with plans for further optimization of designer brands and categories through self-incubation or acquisitions, continued store openings, and enhanced store image to improve store efficiency [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 877 million, 917 million, and 981 million yuan for FY2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.33%, 4.57%, and 6.96% respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.69, 1.77, and 1.89 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times. The company remains optimistic about the sustained growth of its multi-brand matrix and stable growth in channels and store efficiency, maintaining a buy rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cosmetics and medical beauty industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy incentives, recovering consumption, and trade friction, with domestic brands gaining significant market share and attention [1][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wind Cosmetics Index has risen over 20% since April 7, with Proya's stock increasing by more than 20% in the same period, and Marubi's stock rising nearly 70% over three months since February [1]. - During the 618 pre-sale event, over 13,000 brands saw doubled sales, with 43 brands quickly surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, marking a 50% increase in the number of brands in the "billion club" compared to last year [4]. - The beauty industry saw a 6.6% year-on-year increase in total sales during the 2024 618 event, with skincare sales reaching 38.876 billion yuan (up 5.18%) and fragrance and makeup sales at 11.073 billion yuan (up 12.08%) [5]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Domestic brands are outperforming international brands, with Proya's sales on Tmall increasing by 70% year-on-year and Douyin's GMV rising by 110%, significantly exceeding platform growth rates [6]. - International brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder have seen a decline in sales, with Lancôme experiencing only slight growth [7]. - The market share of domestic beauty brands reached 50.4% for the first time, surpassing international brands and establishing them as the main force in China's cosmetics market [20]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a growing recognition of domestic brands among consumers, particularly younger consumers who prioritize cost-effectiveness and cultural identity in products, laying a foundation for long-term growth [21]. - The 2024 China Beauty Industry White Paper indicates that over 60% of consumers are willing to purchase domestic beauty products with innovative technology or ingredients [35]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Proya's revenue for 2024 exceeded 10.778 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 30%, leading to a stock price surge [22]. - Marubi reported a revenue of 2.970 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%, with a net profit of 342 million yuan, also showing strong growth [25]. - Yatsen Holding, the parent company of Perfect Diary, reported a revenue of 3.393 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decline of 0.63%, and a net loss of 708 million yuan, indicating ongoing financial struggles [30]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The beauty industry is becoming increasingly saturated, with brands competing fiercely for market share, leading to a more challenging operating environment for brand owners [18]. - Brands with strong R&D capabilities and comprehensive channel operations are likely to survive, while those lacking core competitiveness may face elimination [39].

Industry Overview - In 2024, the number of newly opened hotels in China reached 49,000, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, with a total room count of 2.17 million, up 32.3% [1] - The mid-to-high-end hotel segment accounted for 47.7% of the market, but increased competition has led to diluted profitability and negative growth in key metrics like RevPAR and ADR [1] Company Performance - Atour, a representative mid-to-high-end hotel brand, reported a revenue of 7.248 billion yuan in 2024, a 55.3% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.306 billion yuan, up 44.6% [2] - In Q1 2025, Atour achieved a revenue of 1.906 billion yuan, a 29.8% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 345 million yuan, up 32.3% [2] Strategic Positioning - Atour has established a multi-brand matrix strategy to address market demand differentiation while maintaining brand positioning in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The brand's approach includes targeting various consumer segments through different hotel brands, such as A.T.HOUSE for high-net-worth individuals and Atour S and ZHOTEL for enhanced service experiences [3] Membership Growth - As of Q1 2025, Atour's registered membership exceeded 96 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [4] Expansion and Market Coverage - Atour operated 1,727 hotels with 194,559 rooms as of Q1 2025, with 121 new hotels opened in Q1, a 24.7% increase year-on-year [5] - The brand's multi-brand strategy allows it to cater to customer needs throughout their lifecycle, enhancing user retention opportunities [5] Retail Integration - Atour has developed a business model that extends from accommodation to retail, with Q1 retail GMV reaching 845 million yuan, a 70.9% increase year-on-year [6] Consumer Insights - The target demographic for mid-to-high-end hotels includes new middle-class consumers who prioritize both experience and value, aligning with Atour's service offerings [9] Brand Value and Experience - Atour has shifted the competitive focus from traditional service offerings to creating a brand identity centered around user experience, particularly in sleep quality [10][11] - The brand's unique sleep solutions have led to significant sales, with over 6 million deep sleep pillows sold, establishing a strong market presence [11] Financial Metrics - In Q1, Atour's RevPAR was 304 yuan, ADR was 418 yuan, and occupancy rate was 70.2%, reflecting effective monetization of user experience [15] Business Resilience - Atour's business model demonstrates strong resilience against market fluctuations, with a significant portion of sales coming from corporate agreements, enhancing revenue predictability [17] Conclusion - The competitive landscape in the hotel industry has shifted from quantity to quality, emphasizing the importance of brand asset management and user experience [18]

Group 1: Company Developments - Proya is considering overseas acquisitions to fill gaps in its product lines, including baby care, perfumes, and men's skincare, with plans to introduce new brands to the domestic market [1] - Warner Bros. has appointed Sirena Liu as the General Manager of its China Film Division, indicating a potential increase in content investment in China and exploration of new collaboration models [2] - Good Products has undergone significant management changes, with Cheng Hong taking over as Chairman and Yang Hongchun as Manager, signaling a shift towards a professional management structure amid increasing competition in the snack industry [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The construction of a new Spider-Man themed area at Shanghai Disneyland marks a significant milestone in the park's expansion, aimed at attracting younger families and enhancing visitor engagement through diverse offerings [3] - The expansion reflects ongoing optimism in the Chinese market and suggests a new growth cycle driven by content in the cultural tourism industry [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase in 2024 but faced significant challenges in overseas operations, resulting in a net loss [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -310 million yuan, a decline of 392.99% year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share were -0.85 yuan, compared to 0.29 yuan in the same period last year [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 67.36%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin was -8.42%, down 13.98 percentage points year-on-year [3] Brand Performance - The main brand, ELLASSAY, saw comprehensive development in both online and offline channels, with online sales growing by 55% year-on-year [2] - The German brand Laurèl increased its store count to 94 and achieved a revenue growth of 19% [2] - The UK brand self-portrait experienced a 21% increase in sales revenue, surpassing 500 million yuan [2] - The French brand IRO had a good performance in China, with revenue growth of 17% [2] Strategic Adjustments - The company transferred 50% of its stake in the subsidiary Dongming International, which holds the Ed Hardy brand, in December 2024, meaning Ed Hardy will not be included in the consolidated financial statements from 2025 [1] - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures for its underperforming overseas operations [2] Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 7.82% year-on-year, primarily due to the exclusion of Ed Hardy from the consolidated financials [4] - On a comparable basis, domestic market revenue grew by 8.1% year-on-year [4] Investment Outlook - The company has established a diverse brand matrix covering various market segments, including high-end fashion brands [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.51 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.0X, 10.5X, and 8.7X [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 is subdued, but the key growth driver for 2025 is expected to be offline distribution, with a focus on increasing the proportion of daily sales products and sales performance [5]. - The company achieved revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.13% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 22.46% year-on-year to 239 million yuan [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online channels, particularly through Douyin, saw rapid growth, with 2024 online revenue reaching 7.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.60%, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue [2]. - Offline distribution also expanded significantly, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 48.62% [2]. - The main brand, Three Squirrels, generated revenue of 9.825 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.57% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects and an increase in self-produced products [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 26.74%, showing stability despite a slight decrease of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.522 billion yuan, 16.972 billion yuan, and 20.160 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 25.52%, and 18.78% [5][12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.41% [5][12].