导语："二代"接班5年，海澜之家还是"爸爸装"？ 摘要： 1、男装"龙头"：亚洲男装市占率第一、国内唯一营收破百亿的男装品牌。 2、主品牌营收下降：主品牌海澜之家系列营收连续下滑、加盟体系关店数百家，库存突破百亿元、营收 规模五年徘徊不前， 海外业务占比不足2%， 增长"瓶颈"待解。 3、管理层变动：高管在递表前夕离任、家族持股高度集中、累计分红214亿元引发关注。 "海澜之家"系列连续两年营收下滑 截至 2025年 前三季度 ， 海澜之家 全球门店 （直营、加盟及其他）达到 7178 家， 在海外 覆盖东南 亚、中东、非洲、大洋洲等地区。 但这些规模背后，是 持续增长 的乏力。 从 2020年开始，海澜之家的营收结束了之前长达7年的连续增 长，而是陷入了从增长到下滑的重复性"怪圈"，而且至今也没有突破过2019年219.7亿元的营收峰值。 巧合的是， 2020年也是"二代" 周立宸 接任父亲 周建平 董事长职务的时刻。从 2020年至今， 周立宸 接班已 5年有余，但营收规模始终徘徊在200亿元的规模。 在营收 "瓶颈"的背后，是海澜之家给消费者的品牌印象仍停留在"中年男性服装"，以"男人的衣柜"为标 签的 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨裕元集团（00551.HK） [Table_Title] 制造产能爬坡形成拖累，关店及客流影响零售承 压 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 裕元集团 2025 年前三季度实现营收 60.2 亿美元，同比-1.0%，归母净利润 2.8 亿美元，同比- 16.0%。其中制造业务实现营收 42.3 亿美元，同比+2.3%，归母净利润 2.6 亿美元，同比-12.6%； 宝胜实现营收 17.9 亿美元，同比-7.9%，归母净利润 0.2 亿美元，同比-50.3%。 裕元集团 2025Q3 实现营收 19.6 亿美元，同比-5.0%，归母净利润 1.1 亿美元，同比-27.0%。 其中制造业务实现营收 14.3 亿美元，同比-4.5%，归母净利润 1.1 亿美元，同比-25.7%；宝胜 实现营收 5.2 亿美元，同比-6.3%，归母净利润-218.7 万美元，同比转亏。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, down 18.7% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 580 million yuan, down 21.4% year-on-year. For Q3 alone, revenue was 1.1 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 190 million yuan, down 32.0% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 3.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18.7% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 580 million yuan, down 21.4% year-on-year. In Q3, revenue reached 1.1 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year [2][6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.3 percentage points to 75.1%. The increase in sales expenses was attributed to the company's ongoing store openings and high marketing investments. The net profit margin decreased by 7.9 percentage points to 18.7% [11]. Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.13 billion yuan, while accounts receivable decreased by 14% to 310 million yuan. The inventory turnover days increased by 55 days year-on-year to 360 days. The net cash flow from operating activities was 480 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year, but still significantly higher than profit levels [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by direct store openings and e-commerce channel expansion. The multi-brand strategy is anticipated to yield positive results, with projected net profits attributable to the parent company of 640 million yuan, 730 million yuan, and 820 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times for the respective years [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady recovery in growth momentum through channel optimization and product focus, with a 13.78% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 3.464 billion yuan [1][4] - The third quarter revenue reached 1.092 billion yuan, showing a reduced decline of 9.95% compared to the previous quarter, indicating initial effectiveness of channel and product adjustments [1] - Key initiatives contributing to revenue improvement include the simplification of SKU and reduced promotions on low-margin products, alongside enhanced online channel operations [1] - The main brand, Winona, has shown stable performance, particularly during the Double Eleven pre-sale period, while the high-end anti-aging brand, Aikeman, has seen strong growth [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.464 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 13.78% year-on-year, with a third-quarter revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, down 9.95% [1][3] - The revenue decline is narrowing, suggesting that operational adjustments are beginning to yield results [1] Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 70.68%, a decrease of 5.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin improved to 2.52%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability compared to the same period last year [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its operational adjustments, with the performance during the Double Eleven sales event being a critical indicator of the effectiveness of its strategies [2] - The multi-brand matrix, anchored by Winona and supported by Aikeman and the newly introduced TriPollar brand, is anticipated to create a second growth curve [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.02, 1.22, and 1.43 yuan respectively [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful IPO of Le Shushi, the first Middle Eastern company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a subscription rate of 2358 times and a stock price increase of 35.8%, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 21.5 billion, marking it as a new star in the consumer goods sector [3][4]. Company Overview - Le Shushi, headquartered in Dubai, operates primarily in Africa and was founded by Chinese couple Shen Yanchang and Yang Yanjuan, who have a background in engineering from Harbin Engineering University [5][6]. - The company started as a trading firm in 2000, focusing on sourcing goods for African clients, and evolved into a manufacturer of consumer goods, establishing factories across several African countries [7][8]. Business Model and Growth - Le Shushi's core business focuses on two main sectors: decorative building materials and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), including laundry powder and hygiene products [8]. - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy, launching several brands in the hygiene product sector, with a significant contribution from baby diapers, which account for over 70% of its revenue [10][11]. Financial Performance - Le Shushi's revenue projections for 2022 to 2024 are approximately USD 320 million, USD 411 million, and USD 454 million, respectively, with profits increasing from USD 18.39 million to USD 95.11 million during the same period [11][12]. - The company sold 4.12 billion baby diapers and 1.63 billion sanitary pads in 2024, leading the market in Africa with a share of 20.3% and 15.6%, respectively [12][14]. Market Potential - The African market for baby and female hygiene products is identified as having the largest growth potential globally, with a newborn population growth rate of 1.8% from 2020 to 2024 [16][18]. - Current market penetration rates for baby diapers and sanitary pads in Africa are significantly lower than in Europe and North America, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth [18]. Strategic Positioning - Le Shushi's competitive advantage lies in its ability to produce locally, which reduces costs and tariffs, and its focus on high-demand products in emerging markets [15][16]. - The company has established multiple production facilities in Africa, enhancing its supply chain efficiency and product affordability, with local prices being about one-third of those in Western markets [15][16]. IPO Context - The IPO of Le Shushi is seen as a significant step in strengthening financial ties between Hong Kong and the Middle East, with ongoing efforts to facilitate cross-border financial cooperation [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a net profit decrease of 24%. However, for the first three quarters of 2025, revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan, and net profit rose by 3% to 1.03 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy, having submitted a prospectus for a Hong Kong IPO to support international expansion and potential mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. - The multi-brand strategy is showing growth, with significant performance from new product lines and brands, including a strong sales increase of 170% for the sunscreen category [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 74.7%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company forecasts total revenue of 10.86 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, also reflecting a 0.7% increase [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [5][10]. Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand development, with a clear roadmap for new product launches and upgrades, particularly in its core series [2][3]. - The investment in the emerging makeup brand "Hua Zhi Xiao" aims to attract a younger consumer demographic, enhancing the company's brand portfolio [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of R&D in maintaining market leadership and driving future growth, with ongoing investments in product development [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Saiwei Times Technology Co., Ltd., reported significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, while facing challenges such as a slight decline in gross margin [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 8.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.39%, with third-quarter revenue of 2.843 billion yuan, up 8.33% year-on-year [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, a 7.34% increase year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 221 million yuan, reflecting a 35.35% growth [4][7]. - The company achieved a significant improvement in cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 742 million yuan, a substantial increase of 252.93% year-on-year [6][8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 43.56%, down 1.37 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices and rising cross-border transportation costs [8]. - The net profit margin was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points compared to the same period last year [8]. Expense Overview - Total operating expenses for the first three quarters amounted to 3.204 billion yuan, an increase of 408 million yuan year-on-year, with a period expense ratio of 39.12%, down 1.97 percentage points [8]. - Sales expenses rose by 15.16%, while management expenses increased by 13.40%, and research and development expenses decreased by 1.71% [8]. Market Position and Growth - Saiwei Times has established itself as a leading player in the cross-border e-commerce sector, with a strong multi-brand matrix and digital operational capabilities [3][4]. - The company is recognized as a significant Chinese cross-border seller in the European and American markets, with expectations to surpass 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 [3][4]. Shareholder Structure and Market Sentiment - The number of A-share shareholders decreased by 15.28% to 15,200, indicating increased concentration of shareholding [9]. - Several brokerage firms, including Changjiang Securities and Kaiyuan Securities, have a positive outlook on the company's future, citing strong growth in the apparel category and a decline in inventory [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The cosmetics retail sales in China grew by 3.9% year-on-year from January to September 2025, slightly underperforming the overall retail market by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a stable demand environment [4][14]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin are experiencing a shift, with Tmall showing signs of recovery due to flash sales and member subsidies, while Douyin's growth has slightly slowed down [17][20]. - The demand for high-end and cost-effective products is increasing, while the mid-range segment is facing pressure due to a more conservative consumer environment [5][41]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The trend of domestic brands replacing foreign ones is slowing down, with leading foreign brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder showing signs of recovery in the Chinese market [23][24]. - The growth of domestic brands is becoming more differentiated, with some brands like Proya and Shiseido experiencing declines, while others like Youngor and Shanghai Jahwa continue to grow [23][24]. - The industry is witnessing an acceleration in the multi-brand matrix among leading companies, which is expected to increase market concentration [27][28]. Group 3: Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Ruya Chen, Shumei Co., and Maogeping, which are expected to benefit from their brand strength and market positioning [3][54]. - Companies like Dekang Oral Care and Shanghai Jahwa are noted for their stable fundamentals and potential for marginal improvement, while others like Jinbo Biological and Huaxi Biological are anticipated to reach turning points [54]. - Ruya Chen's self-owned brand, Zhenjia, has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 345% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating strong brand development capabilities [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from industry recovery and the growth of new brands. The revenue growth is primarily driven by e-commerce, while the franchise channel faces challenges [2][10]. - The company has made significant investments in brand rejuvenation and new brand development, which has led to increased sales expenses. Despite a decline in profitability, the overall operational quality remains good, with a strong cash position [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,256 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 683 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 919 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decline from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 76.3% by 2027 [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 25.8% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2025, then gradually improve to 17.5% in 2027 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.20 CNY, 1.38 CNY, and 1.61 CNY, respectively [3][11]. - The report indicates a significant increase in sales expenses, which is a key factor in the decline of profitability [10]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 31, 2025, is 15.98 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.19 CNY and a low of 14.93 CNY [5]. - The report highlights the company's relative performance against the market, indicating a mixed performance over different time frames [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand rejuvenation and the establishment of a multi-brand matrix to explore new growth opportunities amid a weak retail environment [10]. - Recent acquisitions of international brands are in the investment phase, which is expected to contribute to future growth as the industry recovers [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from industry recovery and the growth of new brands. The revenue growth is primarily driven by e-commerce, while franchise channels face challenges [2][10]. - The company has made significant investments in brand rejuvenation and new brand development, which have led to increased sales expenses, impacting profitability [10][11]. - The company has acquired two international brands, CERRUTI 1881 and KENT&CURWEN, which are currently in the investment phase, contributing to short-term losses but expected to enhance growth in the long term [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,256 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 683 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 919 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 76.3% by 2027 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.20 CNY, 1.38 CNY, and 1.61 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [3][11]. - The company’s sales expenses are expected to increase significantly, impacting overall profitability despite revenue growth [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 31, 2025, was 15.98 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.19 CNY and a low of 14.93 CNY [5].