本文约 3 0 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 0 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 5月24日，拥有280万粉丝的美妆KOL"大嘴博士"（郝宇）援引第三方检测报告，直指巨子生物旗下明星产品"可复美胶原棒"涉嫌成分造假：重组胶原蛋 白实测含量仅0.0177%，远低于《化妆品标签管理办法》规定的0.1%标注下限。指控迅速引爆舆情，巨子生物股价应声暴跌，市值蒸发掉了一个"贝泰 妮"。 10日内，巨子生物两次发布官方声明，在巨子提供的检测报告中，部分网友指出存在"模糊测量"、"逃避检测"，不仅未能平息舆论，反而加剧了消费者 对其成分可信度的质疑。几日后，巨子生物再次发布声明，称"公司现有的质量标准、检测方法和标签标识在某些方面已逐渐显现出其局限性，难以完 全适配行业发展与技术进步的高标准和高要求，需要不断的优化迭代。"一年两次面对成分争议，让这个曾以"科技"和"专业"著称的公司，站在了用户 信任的边缘。 从美国的雅诗兰黛、日本的资生堂到中国的完美日记，化妆品巨头们在二级市场的股价轨迹，都曾划过令基金经理心跳加速的抛物线。今年5月，巨子 生物市值一举突破800亿元，约等于珀莱雅、华熙生物、完美日记和贝泰妮四家市值之和。让打 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies in the recombinant collagen sector, highlighting their potential for growth and market leadership [5][6]. Core Insights - Collagen is essential for human health, providing structural support and biological functions [11][14]. - The domestic recombinant collagen technology is advanced, with a complete industrial chain and supportive policies driving growth [6][31]. - The market for recombinant collagen is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 41.4% from 2023 to 2027, surpassing the growth of animal-derived collagen [6][27]. - The applications of collagen are diverse, including medical aesthetics, skincare, intimate health, and hair health [6][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Collagen as a Vital Component - Collagen constitutes 30%-40% of human protein and is crucial for skin, bones, tendons, and ligaments [11][14]. - There are at least 29 types of collagen in the human body, with types I and III being the most common in the skin [14][15]. 2. Production: Recombinant vs. Animal-Derived Collagen - Recombinant collagen is produced using gene engineering, offering advantages such as no virus risk and better biocompatibility compared to animal-derived collagen [19][26]. - The market for recombinant collagen is expected to reach 286.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant growth trajectory [27][28]. 3. Policy Support for Market Development - The regulatory framework for recombinant collagen has been improving, with various guidelines issued since 2021 to standardize the industry [31][32]. 4. Diverse Applications of Recombinant Collagen - **Medical Aesthetics**: The market for recombinant collagen in medical aesthetics is projected to grow from 43 billion yuan in 2023 to 143 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 35.4% [6][42]. - **Skincare**: The market for functional skincare products containing recombinant collagen is expected to grow from 115 billion yuan in 2023 to 665 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 54.9% [47][49]. - **Intimate Health**: The market for intimate health products is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer awareness and demand [51][52]. 5. Key Companies in the Industry - **Jinbo Biological**: A leader in recombinant collagen with unique medical aesthetic products [5][40]. - **Juzi Biological**: Known for its brands Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, actively expanding its medical aesthetic pipeline [5][40]. - **Marubi Biological**: Accelerating its research in collagen, with significant product launches [5][40].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the cosmetics industry, specifically focusing on the trend and competitive landscape of collagen protein in cosmetics [1][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance During 618 Promotion** - The 618 promotion started earlier this year on May 13, compared to May 24 last year, leading to a need for year-over-year comparisons [1]. - Sales data from the first phase of the promotion (up to May 25) indicates a significant impact on brand performance [1]. 2. **Impact of Public Relations Incident on Kofumei** - Kofumei, a leading brand in the fat-free protein segment, experienced a 50% drop in sales on the Sunday following a public relations incident, despite a quick denial from the company [2]. - The initial sales growth target for Kofumei during 618 was 60-80%, but it is now estimated to be only 30% due to this incident [2]. 3. **Marketing and Sales Strategy** - Kofumei's marketing strategy involved leveraging major influencers, with one influencer accounting for 70% of pre-sale sales [3]. - The brand's advertising budget increased by 30% compared to last year, aiming for a top 3 ranking in sales [3]. 4. **Conversion Rate Decline** - Kofumei's conversion rate has dropped below 3, with some estimates as low as 2.5, affecting the effectiveness of their advertising spend [4]. - Negative reviews from influencers are impacting consumer perception and sales [4]. 5. **Overall Market Impact** - The overall sales contribution from the 618 promotion is expected to be around 15-20% of annual sales, indicating that while the short-term impact is significant, the long-term effects may be minimal [5]. 6. **Performance of Other Brands** - Other brands like Keli Jin and Perfect are experiencing strong growth, with Keli Jin expected to achieve over 100% growth and Perfect targeting over 80% growth [6][7]. - Perfect's small gold needle product is also performing well, with a growth rate of 50-60% [6]. 7. **Trends in Collagen Protein Segment** - There is a growing interest among brands to enter the collagen protein market, driven by perceived growth potential [7][8]. - The competitive landscape includes brands like Kofumei, Keli Jin, and Perfect, all of which are focusing on collagen products [8]. 8. **Challenges for New Brands** - New brands may find it difficult to enter the collagen protein market due to high technical barriers and established competitors like Kofumei [9][10]. 9. **Market Growth Projections** - The overall market for collagen products is expected to grow at a rate of over 50%, with increasing participation from major cosmetic brands [10][12]. 10. **E-commerce Strategy Changes** - The strategy for e-commerce platforms like Douyin has shifted, focusing less on low-price strategies and more on brand exposure during the promotion [13][14]. - Sales growth across platforms during the 618 promotion is optimistic, with Douyin reporting a 40-50% increase [15]. Additional Important Insights - The discussion highlights the importance of brand reputation and consumer perception in the cosmetics industry, particularly in the context of social media and influencer marketing [4][10]. - The potential for regulatory changes in response to the recent public relations incident may shape future industry standards [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining youthful skin and overall health through five key habits, while promoting specific skincare products from 可复美 as effective solutions for aging skin [9][30]. Group 1: Key Habits for Youthful Skin - Habit 1: Consistent sun protection is crucial, as UV damage is irreversible, necessitating the use of sunscreen or protective gear even on cloudy days [10][12]. - Habit 2: Avoiding late nights is essential, as lack of sleep reduces skin repair capabilities and accelerates collagen loss [15][17]. - Habit 3: A healthy diet is important, recommending low oil, salt, and sugar intake, along with adequate hydration of at least 2000 milliliters (approximately 8 cups) of water daily [19][21]. - Habit 4: Regular exercise, at least three times a week, boosts metabolism and improves skin condition [24][25]. - Habit 5: A consistent skincare routine is necessary post-25 years of age, focusing on collagen replenishment and skin nourishment [26][30]. Group 2: Product Promotion - The article promotes 可复美's collagen products, highlighting their effectiveness and the special offers available during the 618 shopping festival [32][37]. - Specific products mentioned include: - 可复美胶原棒, which helps repair the skin's collagen barrier and is suitable for sensitive skin [41][45]. - 可丽金胶卷面霜, designed to promote collagen production and improve skin elasticity [52][56]. - 可丽金胶卷眼霜, which targets fine lines around the eyes and enhances skin firmness [60][65]. - 可丽金大膜王, an upgraded face mask that provides intensive care for dull and sagging skin [68][71]. - 可复美胶囊精华油, which emphasizes the concept of "nourishing skin with oil" for long-lasting hydration [74][78]. Group 3: Promotional Activities - The article outlines promotional activities for the upcoming live broadcast, including a lottery for Xiaomi phones and special giveaways for early participants [82][84]. - Participants are encouraged to share their experiences with 可复美 products to qualify for additional rewards [84].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing dispute between Juzi Biotech and Huaxi Biotech highlights significant issues within the domestic beauty industry, including unclear standards and a crisis of consumer trust [4][7][26]. Group 1: Company Developments - Juzi Biotech's major shareholder announced plans to increase its stake in the company by at least 200 million HKD, leading to a temporary stock price increase of 4.15% [3][18]. - Despite the initial stock price rise, Juzi Biotech's shares fell again shortly after, indicating a lack of sustained investor confidence [4][5]. - In contrast, Huaxi Biotech reported a significant decline in revenue and profit, with a revenue of 5.317 billion RMB, down 11.61% year-on-year, and a net profit drop of 70.59% to 174 million RMB [22][25]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition between Huaxi Biotech and Juzi Biotech has drawn attention to the effectiveness of hyaluronic acid versus the emerging trend of recombinant collagen, with predictions indicating that the collagen market could surpass hyaluronic acid by 2026 [19][25]. - Juzi Biotech's revenue reached 5.539 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 57.17%, while its net profit grew by 42.4% to 2.062 billion RMB [22][25]. Group 3: Industry Issues - The dispute has revealed a lack of rigorous standards and clear definitions in the beauty industry, contributing to consumer skepticism [7][26]. - Industry insiders have pointed out that the marketing strategies often overshadow research and development, with Juzi Biotech's R&D expenditure being significantly lower than that of its competitors [27][29]. - The ongoing debate over ingredient efficacy may serve as a catalyst for improved transparency and standards within the industry, potentially benefiting consumers and companies alike [29][30].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Juzhibio** and its brand **Kefumei**, which operates in the **recombinant collagen protein** market, currently valued at approximately **400 billion RMB** [4][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Impact from Public Relations Incident**: A recent incident involving a video by a chemist questioning the collagen content in Kefumei's products led to a significant drop in sales. The target growth rate for the 618 sales period was **60%**, but actual growth was only **20%-30%**. Sales on Douyin dropped by **50%** following the incident [2][22]. - **Long-term Market Potential**: Despite short-term setbacks, the long-term outlook for the recombinant collagen market remains positive, driven by market segmentation and the introduction of new collagen products (types IV and XVII) [1][4]. - **Product Performance**: The **Kefumei collagen stick** is a core product, with a pre-pandemic growth expectation of **50%**. It has a high repurchase rate of **70%-80%**, with new customer acquisition at nearly **50%** [1][6]. The **Focus Cream**, launched eight months ago, generated **200 million RMB** in revenue but has a low repurchase rate of **20%** due to its long improvement cycle [7][8]. - **Brand Loyalty and Customer Retention**: The brand enjoys a high level of recognition and loyalty among existing customers, with a repurchase rate of **40%** during key sales events, indicating strong customer satisfaction [12][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Channel Strategy**: Juzhibio is enhancing its online and offline channel operations, with plans to open **20 new direct stores** to improve customer engagement and service capabilities [16][14]. - **Market Competition**: The recombinant collagen market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several brands entering the space. However, the lack of regulatory barriers in the cosmetics sector allows for market expansion rather than intensified competition [24][25]. - **Impact of Pricing and Promotions**: The pricing strategy for the collagen stick has seen a **25%** increase in consumer feedback during the 618 period, indicating a shift in consumer perception and potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum [6][25]. - **Future Growth Opportunities**: The company is exploring new growth points through product bundling and marketing strategies, particularly for the Focus Cream, which is positioned as a secondary growth driver [23][19]. Conclusion - Juzhibio's long-term growth potential in the recombinant collagen market remains strong despite recent challenges. The company is actively working to enhance its product offerings, customer engagement strategies, and market positioning to navigate the competitive landscape and capitalize on future opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Juzi Bio (02367), projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.40/2.93/3.54 HKD, with corresponding PE ratios of 23/19/16 times, indicating confidence in the company's product matrix and recovery in sales growth post-public sentiment impact [1][2]. Group 1 - Juzi Holding currently holds approximately 54.26% of the company's shares and plans to increase its stake by at least 200 million HKD within 3-6 months, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [2]. - The company aims to enhance brand building, channel expansion, and regulatory approvals, focusing on increasing R&D investment for medical device products and meeting diverse market needs [2][3]. Group 2 - The company will intensify marketing efforts for its main brands and incubate new brands to elevate its skincare business, with notable products like collagen sticks and the focus cream showing promising growth [3]. - Juzi Bio plans to initiate commercialization preparations for three categories of medical devices, emphasizing market education and training to support its second growth curve [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing public dispute between two major players in the beauty industry, Huaxi Biological and Juzhi Biological, has escalated into a fierce battle over allegations of fraud and market manipulation, significantly impacting their market positions and stock prices [1][4][34]. Group 1: Background and Timeline - The conflict began on May 17 when Huaxi Biological publicly criticized several brokerage reports that favored Juzhi Biological's products, suggesting they misled the market [5][6]. - On May 24, beauty influencer Hao Yu accused Juzhi Biological of fraud regarding its "collagen stick" product, claiming the actual collagen content was only 0.0177%, far below the labeled 0.1% [16][17]. - Following these allegations, Juzhi Biological issued a rebuttal, presenting an internal quality inspection report to counter the fraud claims [18][19]. Group 2: Market Impact - Since the dispute began, Huaxi Biological's stock price has increased by approximately 6.8%, while Juzhi Biological's stock has seen a cumulative decline of 25.20%, resulting in a market value loss of over 16 billion HKD [34]. - The consumer market has also reacted, with Juzhi Biological's product ranking dropping significantly on e-commerce platforms, indicating a shift in consumer perception [36]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The conflict highlights a broader competition between two factions in the beauty industry: the hyaluronic acid camp represented by Huaxi Biological and the recombinant collagen camp led by Juzhi Biological [39]. - The rise of recombinant collagen products has been attributed to a lack of standardized regulations and testing methods, allowing companies like Juzhi Biological to capitalize on marketing without stringent scientific backing [41]. - In contrast, Huaxi Biological has faced significant challenges, with its market value plummeting from 140 billion to 26.1 billion, while Juzhi Biological's market capitalization has surged by 230% since its IPO [37].

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding the product "Kefumei" from Juzhi Biotechnology has escalated into a significant public debate over the authenticity of its key ingredient, recombinant collagen, leading to a broader discussion about ingredient marketing in the domestic beauty industry [1][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The dispute began on May 24 when beauty blogger "Dr. Big Mouth" Hao Yu accused Juzhi Biotechnology of falsely advertising the collagen content in its "Kefumei" product, claiming the actual amount was only 0.0177%, while it should be above 0.1% to comply with regulations [3][4]. - Juzhi Biotechnology responded with its own testing results, asserting compliance, but the blogger continued to question the validity of these results, leading to a back-and-forth that has lasted 12 days [3][4]. - The incident has resulted in a significant market impact, with Juzhi Biotechnology's market value dropping by over 20%, amounting to nearly 20 billion HKD [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The beauty industry in China has increasingly relied on ingredient marketing, with companies like Huaxi Biotechnology leveraging popular ingredients like hyaluronic acid to drive sales [5][6]. - Juzhi Biotechnology's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 5.54 billion RMB, a 57.2% increase year-on-year, with the "Kefumei" brand contributing over 80% of this revenue [4][6]. - The reliance on e-commerce channels is evident, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales accounting for 71.6% of Juzhi's total revenue, up from 65.2% the previous year [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The ongoing debate highlights a "arms race" in ingredient marketing within the domestic beauty sector, where companies must continuously innovate and promote new ingredients to attract consumer interest and investment [1][5]. - The lack of industry standards for new ingredients like recombinant collagen complicates the situation, as companies can interpret and market these ingredients in ways that may not align with consumer expectations [10][11]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by the contrasting fortunes of companies like Juzhi Biotechnology, which has seen its valuation rise, versus Huaxi Biotechnology, which has experienced declining revenues and profits [8][9].