Core Insights - The emergence of autonomous delivery vehicles is reshaping urban logistics, with significant growth projected in the sector [4][30] - Major players in the market, such as New Stone and Nine Knowledge, are adopting different business models to capture market share [19][24] Market Overview - The value of urban last-mile autonomous delivery is expected to reach 12.8 billion yuan by 2025 and surge to 97.7 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - As of September 2025, over half of China's 3,600 districts and counties support autonomous vehicles on the road [7] Business Model Analysis - Autonomous delivery primarily targets large logistics platforms and express delivery companies, focusing on cost-effective last-mile delivery solutions [8] - The operational cost of using autonomous vehicles can be nearly halved compared to traditional delivery methods [12] - The business model includes low-cost hardware sales or rentals, subscription-based software services, and additional value-added services [13][15] Competitive Landscape - New Stone and Nine Knowledge dominate the market, with a combined market share of approximately 80% by 2025 [16] - New Stone focuses on high barriers and deep partnerships with major logistics firms, while Nine Knowledge adopts a low-cost, broad coverage strategy [19][21] Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces significant challenges, including the complexity of software algorithms, operational sustainability, and the need for a comprehensive ecosystem [25][29] - Both companies are exploring international markets, but face regulatory uncertainties and localization challenges [30]