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亚朵(ATAT):双主业延续高势能增长,上调全年收入指引
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-28 03:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][12][13] Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum in both its hotel and retail segments, leading to an upward revision of its full-year revenue guidance [3][12] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.469 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, and a net profit of 425 million yuan, up 39.8% [6][12] - The dual business model of hotel expansion and retail growth is expected to continue driving performance ahead of industry averages [3][12] Summary by Sections Hotel Performance - Hotel revenue in Q2 2025 reached 1.449 billion yuan, growing by 20.0% year-on-year, with franchise revenue at 1.299 billion yuan (+26.5%) and self-operated hotel revenue at 150 million yuan (-17.0%) [6][11] - The gross margin for hotels improved from 35.7% in Q2 2024 to 38.3% in Q2 2025 due to an increase in franchise revenue and structural changes [6][11] Store Expansion and Pipeline - In Q2 2025, the company opened 118 new hotels and closed 21, resulting in a net increase of 97 hotels, bringing the total to 1,824, a 29% year-on-year growth [11] - The company has a pipeline of 816 stores, with a goal of reaching 2,000 stores by the end of the year [11] Retail Performance - The retail business achieved a GMV of 1.144 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a significant increase of 84.6%, with revenue of 965 million yuan, up 79.8% [3][12] - The company has revised its full-year retail revenue guidance from 50% to 60%, reflecting strong performance during promotional periods [3][12] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.68 billion yuan, 2.09 billion yuan, and 2.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 15 [3][12][14] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% and has a share buyback limit of 400 million USD, enhancing its attractiveness as an investment [3][12]