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东航物流(601156):2025年年报点评:业绩有韧性、分红稳定,看好航空货运稳增长
Guohai Securities· 2026-03-29 13:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient performance with stable dividends, and there is optimism regarding steady growth in air freight [2][8]. - Despite challenges in cross-border e-commerce logistics, the company has seen significant growth in direct-to-source and customized logistics services [6][8]. - The company's fundamentals remain robust, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of 40% for 2024-2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion, up 0.02% year-on-year [4][7]. - Quarterly revenue for 2025 was reported as follows: Q1: 5.49 billion, Q2: 5.77 billion, Q3: 5.99 billion, Q4: 7.02 billion, with respective year-on-year changes of +5.0%, -4.8%, -6.2%, and +9.9% [7]. - The air express business showed strong growth, with revenues of 10.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [7]. Business Segment Analysis - Cross-border e-commerce logistics faced a decline, with a volume of 94,000 tons in 2025, down 42.2% year-on-year, leading to a revenue drop of 3.78 billion, down 36.2% [6]. - Direct-to-source and customized logistics services saw significant growth, with volumes of 46,000 tons and 20,000 tons, respectively, increasing by 44.9% and 38.4% year-on-year, contributing revenues of 3.971 billion and 542 million, up 20.1% and 51.8% [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 27.165 billion, 29.022 billion, and 30.696 billion, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 7%, and 6% respectively [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.028 billion, 3.467 billion, and 3.880 billion, with growth rates of 13%, 14%, and 12% [10]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.04 for 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [10].