前11月，我国货运航班持续增长，累计通航70个国家、170个城市，相较去年分别增长8个国家、27 个城市，周均航班量达1767班，较去年增加15.7%。 前11月，全国民航共完成货邮运输量超924万吨，同比增长13.6%。其中，国内航线完成525.4万 吨，国际航线完成398.8万吨，同比分别增长8.1%、21.8%。 人民日报北京12月21日电 （记者邱超奕）记者从中国民航局获悉：今年以来，我国航空货运整体 形势持续向好，业务规模不断扩大。 ...

Group 1 - Multiple economic data releases on December 19 cover areas such as e-commerce, air freight, and port throughput [1]

而亚太地区客运需求依然强劲，中国和印度引领区域增长，主要得益于区域内旅游活动的增加和中产群 体的壮大。中韩放宽团体旅游签证、中国对外籍游客简化入境手续，预计将在短期尤其是节假日高峰刺 激入境需求。由于国际客运复苏放缓，运力过剩依然是一大挑战，收益率因此承压。尽管如此，亚太地 区仍是全球客运增长的最大贡献者。2026年，该地区载客率预计将达到84.4%，创历史新高。 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者郑雪 报道：近日，国际航空运输协会（IATA，简称"国际航协"）发 布全球航空运输业最新财务展望。尽管航空供应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健，2026年全球 航空运输业净利润预计为410亿美元。不过，行业利润率依然薄如蝉翼，航空公司运送一位旅客赚的钱 还没有苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚得多。 根据国际航协的预测，2026年全球航空公司总收入将达1.054万亿美元，同比增长4.5%（2025年预计为 1.008万亿美元）；营业利润将达728亿美元（2025年为670亿美元），营业利润率升至6.9%，2025年预 计为6.6%；净利润预计为410亿美元（2025年为395亿美元），创历史新高，但净利率仍维持在 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the "Nanjing-Kuala Lumpur" international cargo flight route marks a significant development in enhancing logistics between China and Southeast Asia, addressing the growing demand for electronic products and cross-border e-commerce goods [1][2] - The new route, operated by Suzhou Port and Shipping Group's subsidiary, will facilitate the transportation of goods to Penang and Singapore, thereby improving the supply chain and logistics for both regions [1][2] Group 1 - The new cargo flight route operates three times a week and is expected to fill the logistics gap between Nanjing and Southeast Asia, supporting the "Suzhou manufacturing, Nanjing flying, global reach" initiative [1] - The cargo volume on China-ASEAN routes has increased by 97% compared to the same period in 2019, indicating a robust growth in demand for air freight services [1] - The collaboration between Suzhou Port and Shipping Group and the Eastern Airport Group aims to enhance the logistics capabilities in the region, with the establishment of a cargo station at Nanjing Lukou Airport [2] Group 2 - Since its operation, the cargo station has handled 3,560 shipments, totaling 12.33 million items and 4,522.87 tons, with a total value of approximately 4 billion yuan, highlighting its importance in connecting regional industries to global markets [2] - The Suzhou Port and Shipping Group is focusing on high-end manufacturing needs and has introduced land-air intermodal services to address logistics challenges for high-tech and high-value goods [2][3] - The company plans to further explore and optimize the international cargo flight network, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, to enhance its air freight capacity and support Jiangsu's open economy [3]

Core Insights - Qinghai's aviation sector is experiencing significant growth, with an expansion of air transport cities to 49 and the establishment of a "3-hour high-frequency round trip" on the Shaanxi-Qinghai corridor, enhancing connectivity and logistics efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Passenger Transport Developments - Since the winter flight schedule change on October 26, passenger traffic in Qinghai has shown steady growth, with the average daily flights from Xining to Beijing increasing from 5 to 7 [1] - Key city routes to Shanghai, Nanjing, and Nanchang have seen increased flight frequency, strengthening ties between Qinghai and major inland cities [1] - The addition of two new round-trip flights between Xining and Xi'an has reduced the flight interval from 10 hours to 3 hours, facilitating more efficient commuting [1][2] Group 2: Cargo Transport Innovations - The launch of the "Xining-Chengdu-Bangkok" all-cargo route on November 17 marks a significant achievement, with the first flight carrying 22 tons of Qinghai specialty products, including 10 tons of salmon, reducing transport time from 24 hours to 12 hours [2][3] - Qinghai Airport Company has focused on integrating into the province's industrial development, optimizing cargo routes, and achieving a 14-fold increase in highland cold-water fish exports this year [3] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics solution combining air transport and cold chain logistics, significantly increasing the export of organic agricultural products [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Quality Focus - Qinghai Airport Company aims to further enhance its cargo transport capabilities, targeting the opening of international cargo routes by 2026, which would reduce transport time to around 6 hours [4] - The company is committed to optimizing passenger flight networks and deepening cooperation with major airlines to better align aviation development with public needs and industrial growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 59.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.1 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was influenced by the cancellation of U.S. small package tariff policies, which led to a decrease in cross-border e-commerce cargo volume [2][4]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 21.6% in Q3, indicating stable profitability. The company has been actively introducing cargo aircraft and optimizing operational routes, which contributed to this improvement [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company has passed stress tests, demonstrating resilience. With the improvement in China-U.S. trade relations, there are opportunities for recovery in general cargo demand, and freight rates are expected to have upward elasticity [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 172.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.0 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 59.9 billion yuan, and net profit was 7.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 shows that air express services, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions generated revenues of 27.9 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan, and 25.0 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +22.6%, +9.2%, and -27.9% [8]. Operational Insights - The average TAC price index decreased by approximately 6% year-on-year, and the average utilization rate of cargo aircraft fell by about 12%. However, the number of available cargo aircraft increased year-on-year, and the company adjusted its operational routes to enhance efficiency [8]. - The company faced increased financial expenses due to rising leasing debts from new aircraft acquisitions, and government subsidies decreased, impacting profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will be 26.5 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 33.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.1, 9.0, and 8.0 times, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience despite a slight decline in revenue and profit due to the impact of the US-China tariff war. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.25 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] - The company is adjusting its global route structure and exploring incremental demand to mitigate the negative impacts of tariff changes. The Shanghai Pudong export TAC price index fell approximately 6% year-on-year, but the decline is manageable [2][3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, although net profit was pressured by increased operating expenses and a significant drop in other income [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1][9] - The three main business segments showed varied performance: air express revenue grew by 22.6%, ground integrated services by 9.2%, while comprehensive logistics solutions fell by 27.9% due to the impact of the US policy changes on cross-border e-commerce [2][10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross profit margin increased, but net profit was affected by rising operating expenses, which increased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.75% [3][11] - Other income significantly decreased from 74.98 million yuan in the previous year to 5.48 million yuan in the current year, contributing to the decline in net profit [3][11] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.64 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan respectively, with a notable adjustment of -25% and -28% for 2025 and 2026 [4][16] - The long-term investment value of the company remains significant, supported by its fleet of 18 B777 freighters and international routes, which are expected to sustain performance growth [3][4]

Core Insights - Airbus projects a 45% increase in the global freighter fleet over the next 20 years, reaching a total of 3,420 aircraft, highlighting the growing reliance on air cargo in global supply chains, especially post-pandemic [2] - The forecast includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 new freighters, with 1,530 aircraft replacing aging models and 1,075 aircraft for pure capacity growth [2] - A significant trend is the conversion of passenger aircraft to freighters, with 1,670 of the new freighters (approximately 64%) coming from passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, indicating their economic and flexible advantages [2] Market Dynamics - Global GDP and trade are expected to grow steadily, with air cargo volume projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%, outpacing the 2.7% CAGR of global trade [3] - Air cargo is recognized as a "rigid demand" supporting economies, connecting remote communities, and facilitating critical supplies, which underpins its growth beyond traditional trade rates [3] - The replacement of aging freighters with new, efficient models like the A350F and P2F conversions from A320/A321 and A330 will be driven by fuel efficiency and environmental considerations [3] Geographic Shifts - The report indicates a significant diversification in global trade routes and air logistics, with emerging industrial centers in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, reshaping the geographic landscape of air cargo [5] - Approximately 1,770 of the 2,605 new freighters will be concentrated in two major markets, reinforcing the importance of the Asia-Pacific and North American regions as key growth areas for air cargo [5] - Airbus's earlier forecast indicated a need for about 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2044, reaffirming the resilience and long-term growth potential of air cargo as a critical infrastructure for the global economy [5]

Core Points - The opening of the new cargo route from Xi'an to Bangkok via Zhengzhou marks a significant development in the logistics network of Xi'an, enhancing its status as a key aviation hub in Northwest China [1][2] - The route is expected to increase the annual cargo throughput at Xi'an Airport by 5,000 tons, with a focus on exporting machinery and e-commerce goods while importing fresh produce like durians from Southeast Asia [1][3] - The collaboration between Xi'an and Zhengzhou airports facilitates a multi-modal logistics network, leveraging high-speed rail and air transport to optimize cargo flow [2][3] Summary by Sections Route Details - The new cargo route operates three flights per week using Boeing 757-200 aircraft, with initial cargo volumes of 15 tons outbound and 23 tons inbound [1] - The route is part of a broader strategy to establish a comprehensive air cargo network connecting Xi'an with Southeast Asia and beyond [1] Economic Impact - The new route is expected to strengthen the support of Xi'an's aviation logistics for the local economy, providing international logistics channels for local manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies [3] - The influx of Southeast Asian agricultural products will enhance the supply in the Northwest market, promoting a "buy global, sell global" trade model [3] Future Prospects - Xi'an Airport is projected to see a 16.7% year-on-year increase in cargo volume by July 2025, with international cargo growth expected to rise by approximately 150% [2] - The airport's ongoing expansion projects and technological upgrades are anticipated to further enhance its logistics capabilities, supporting the growth of the new route and the overall aviation logistics sector in the region [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines reported an increase in passenger capacity and turnover for September 2025, indicating a positive growth trend in both domestic and international markets [1] Passenger Operations - Passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) increased by 4.43% year-on-year, with domestic and international segments rising by 3.16% and 8.42% respectively, while regional capacity decreased by 2.22% [1] - Passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) rose by 5.25% year-on-year, with domestic, regional, and international segments increasing by 4.18%, 0.74%, and 8.61% respectively [1] - The passenger load factor was 86.30%, up by 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic, regional, and international load factors increasing by 0.85, 2.32, and 0.15 percentage points respectively [1] Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity (measured in available ton kilometers) increased by 0.78% year-on-year [1] - Cargo turnover (measured in revenue ton kilometers) rose by 1.91% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 53.16%, up by 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [1] Fleet Update - The company introduced 7 new aircraft in September 2025, including 2 A321NEO, 1 A320NEO, 3 B737-8, and 1 C919 aircraft, while retiring 3 aircraft [1] - As of the end of September 2025, the total operational fleet consisted of 956 aircraft [1]