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海澜之家(600398)更新报告:主品牌稳中向好 京东奥莱拓店稳步推进
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 08:26
Core Viewpoint - The main brand of the company is performing steadily in the domestic market, while its overseas business shows promising prospects. The expansion of JD Outlet is progressing well, with over 40 stores opened or signed for future openings [1]. Investment Highlights - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.52, 0.61, and 0.71 yuan respectively. Given the company's strong position as a leading player in the mass apparel sector, a target price of 9.88 yuan is set with a "Buy" rating based on a PE ratio of 19 times, which is above the industry average for 2025 [2]. - JD Outlet is steadily expanding its store network, with 23 stores opened by the end of June 2025. The distribution includes 6 stores in Shandong, 4 in Henan, 3 in Jiangsu, 3 in Shanxi, and 3 in Anhui, with additional plans in Hebei, Guangdong, and Zhejiang. Approximately 20 more stores are in the signing or renovation phase across various provinces, indicating potential for accelerated expansion as the peak sales season approaches. The total potential for JD Outlet could reach 200-300 stores based on differentiated layouts in lower-tier cities [2]. - The store efficiency for newly opened JD Outlet stores is expected to reach an annualized sales per square meter of 8,000 to 10,000 yuan, benefiting from lower labor costs in lower-tier cities, which should maintain favorable profitability levels [2]. Company Performance - The main brand of the company, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, is showing stable performance, with offline sales expected to turn positive in Q2 2025 as the revenue base from Q1 decreases. Online sales grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1, and the e-commerce channel is anticipated to continue its rapid growth [3]. - The company is actively expanding into the sports sector and city outlet layouts, with the number of FCC stores expected to reach 433 by 2024, and continued rapid expansion in 2025, aiming for breakeven for the year. JD Outlet is expected to contribute positively to profits [3]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion, with overseas revenue projected to reach 355 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the number of overseas stores expected to reach 101. Continued high growth in overseas business is anticipated for 2025 [3]. - The company maintains a stable high dividend policy, with dividend rates projected at 86%, 91%, and 91% for 2022-2024. Given the strong cash flow and stable profitability, a dividend yield of over 6% is expected for 2025 [3].