Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10] Core Views - The main brand of the company achieved positive year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, indicating a recovery trend [9] - The company is optimistic about the mid-term prospects of its outlet business, particularly the JD Outlet initiative, which is expected to contribute significantly to growth [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company adjusted its earnings forecast slightly downward for the next three years, with expected earnings per share of 0.46, 0.51, and 0.58 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [3][10] - The revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,528 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, followed by a slight decline of 2.7% in 2024 [3][12] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,611 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [3][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 2,952 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.0% [3][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 44.5% in 2023 to 45.5% by 2027 [3][12] Business Development Summary - The company has been expanding its direct sales channels, with 115 new direct stores opened and 264 franchise stores closed in the first three quarters [9] - The group purchasing business saw a revenue increase of 28.75% in the same period, although its gross margin declined [9] - The JD Outlet business is expected to grow rapidly, with 23 new stores opened in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9][10]

本报告导读： 稳定高分红， 安全边际出色。2022-2024 年公司分红率为86%/91%/91%，考虑到公司现金流充沛且盈利 稳定，25 年有望延续高分红，对应股息率6%+。 京东奥莱拓店稳步推进，新业态前景广阔。①在拓店方面，根据京东奥莱官方公众号，截至25 年6 月底 已开门店共计23 家，其中山东/河南/江苏/山西/安徽各设有6/4/3/3/3 家门店，在河北、广东、浙江等省 亦有布局。根据官方抖音号数据统计，目前在山东、四川、陕西、江苏等多地有约20 家门店处于已签 约或装修阶段，随着下半年旺季销售渐近，京东奥莱有望加速拓店。展望未来，根据《2024-2025 中国 奥特莱斯行业白皮书》，当前全国奥莱门店数量达到251家，考虑到京东奥莱差异化布局低线城市核心 商圈，未来开店天花板可达200-300 家。②在店效方面，25Q1 京东奥莱新开门店整体爬坡较快，预计 年化坪效可达8000-10000 元；考虑到渠道扣点及低线城市的人工成本较低，预计门店可保持较优盈利 水平。 海澜之家主品牌经营稳健，Q2 基本面稳中向好。25Q2 海澜之家主品牌线下销售稳健，随着Q2 收入基 数环比Q1 走低，Q2 线下销 ...