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25Q1弱势平稳,积极调整货品结构,中期稳健增长可期
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-05 15:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for mid-term growth, suggesting a potential "buy" or "hold" recommendation based on expected recovery in revenue and profit [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak macroeconomic demand [1][2]. - The traditional core business is under short-term pressure, but the product matrix is expected to revitalize through the development of popular products and collaboration with well-known IPs [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure and increasing the share of self-owned brands, particularly in the lifestyle segment, which has shown growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the traditional core business generated approximately 2.054 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year. The breakdown by category shows writing instruments, student stationery, and traditional office supplies with revenues of 564 million, 803 million, and 849 million yuan respectively [2]. - The gross margins for these categories were 43.8%, 35.6%, and 28.5%, with slight variations year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 20.7% and a net profit margin of 6.3% in Q1 2025, with stable operating cash flow of 112 million yuan [4]. Business Segments - The KOLIPU segment reported a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year, but profitability remained stable. The company anticipates a recovery in this segment as downstream bidding normalizes [3]. - The lifestyle segment, including the Jiumu Lifestyle brand, achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, with the Jiumu brand alone generating 388 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a return to stable growth in revenue and profit as the macroeconomic environment improves. Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 1.52 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [4][5].