平安证券研报指出，晨光股份是一家提供学习和工作场景解决方案的综合文具供应商和办公服务商。公 司传统核心业务包括书写工具、学生文具、办公文具等；新业务包括ToB零售电商平台科力普和零售大 店业务（九木杂物社、晨光生活馆）。展望未来，认为IP和出海有望成为公司新增长点，其中IP既包括 传统文具的调改，也包括IP衍生品的开发，出海则有望进一步打开成长空间。考虑同属文具行业，选取 广博股份、齐心集团作为可比公司。截至1月7日，2026年可比公司Wind一致预期PE均值为25X，考虑 公司IP调改潜力较大，长期空间可期，我们认为公司2026年16X估值具备吸引力。首次覆盖，给予"推 荐"评级。 ...

主要数据 | 行业 | 轻工制造 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.mg-pen.com | | 大股东/持股 | 晨光控股(集团)有限公司/58.20% | | 实际控制人 | 陈湖文,陈湖雄,陈雪玲 | | 总股本(百万股) | 921 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 921 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 251 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 251 | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.69 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.9 | 文具龙头砥砺前行，IP与出海打开空间 推荐（首次） 股价：27.3 元 轻工制造 2026 年 01 月 08 日 晨光股份(603899.SH) 行情走势图 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 BVG933 wangxingy un937@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期； 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平； 维持盈利预测与买入评级，维持33.80 元的目标价，对应20 倍2026 年P/E。 传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期：晨光在前期业绩会中提及，1）公司于产品端减量提质， 并提供了更多强功能、情绪价值类与IP 赋能类产品；渠道端与商场中的文具/文创/杂货集合店和精品书 店合作，打造精品大店标杆，并增加与行业头部大店的合作粘性、引领优质校边店。晨光9M25 书写工 具/学生文具/办公文具业务的营收降幅已有所收窄，毛利率也有所提升，4Q25 业绩有望继续改善。2） 科力普进一步开拓央国企、省级以及市级集采客户，9M25 营收同比增长6%，4Q25 有望延续其前期表 现。9M25 晨光生活馆同比新开130 余门店至870 家，推动营收同比增长7%，其中九木杂物社营收同比 增长9%。四季度九木继续扩张可期。 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平：1）在相对低基数下，我们预计4Q25 晨光营收 同比增长13.3%，归母净利润同比增长19.9%，由我们此预计2025 年全年晨光营收同比增长4.8 ...

2025年10月9日，中国黄金珠宝行业领军企业老凤祥（股票代码：600612）宣布一项重大战略举措：入 股德国奢华品牌迈巴赫奢侈品亚太公司，并同步获得其多元生活产品系列在上海的独家经营权以及亚太 的非独家经销权。这一合作不仅标志着老凤祥首次跨界进军高端奢侈品领域，更被视为其品牌战略升级 的关键一步，旨在通过入股国际顶级奢侈品牌拓展快速增长的高端消费市场。此举将加速老凤祥从传统 黄金珠宝商向多元化奢侈品集团的转型，为中国品牌迈向高端化与国际化树立新标杆。 老凤祥与迈巴赫奢侈品亚太有限公司签署《战略合作协议》 迈巴赫作为德国汽车巨头梅赛德斯-奔驰旗下的奢华品牌，象征着尊贵身份与匠心传承，其产品线涵盖 高端汽车、皮具和配饰，在全球奢侈品市场享有盛誉。此次战略合作，意味着老凤祥将与迈巴赫奢侈品 共同推进其旗下高端产品在亚太市场的品牌推广、渠道建设及客户运营工作，为双方创造深度协同效 应。 深度剖析：品牌战略转型的核心引擎 从单一黄金珠宝商升级为聚合奢侈品品类的高端消费生态构建者，老凤祥实施这一战略的关键点在于通 过与迈巴赫奢侈品的合作进入高端奢侈品消费赛道，聚焦"资源整合与品牌升维"，具体表现在品牌形 象、市场扩容、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance and trading activity of Morning Glory Co., Ltd. indicate a mixed outlook, with slight revenue growth but a decline in net profit, alongside significant trading volumes in margin financing and securities lending [1][2][3]. Financing Activity - On November 20, Morning Glory's financing buy-in amounted to 8.71 million yuan, with a net buy of 1.89 million yuan after 6.82 million yuan in repayments [1] - The total margin financing balance reached 200 million yuan, representing 0.77% of the circulating market value, which is above the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] - The securities lending activity showed a repayment of 5,200 shares and a sell-off of 100 shares, with a remaining balance of 21,270 shares valued at approximately 603,270 yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Morning Glory reported a revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.18% to 948 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 4.70 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.12 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 40,000, with an average of 23,002 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed Fund holds 31.50 million shares, remaining unchanged, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 1.13 million shares to 27.67 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 17.33 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 948 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.18% [4][5]. - The traditional core business showed a narrowing decline in Q3 2025, with revenue of 21.31 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, compared to a 11.2% decline in Q2 [5]. - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and high-value products, which have led to an improvement in profitability, with gross margins for writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies increasing year-on-year [5]. - The retail segment, particularly the Jiwu Zawushi stores, has shown steady growth, with Q3 2025 revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of IP integration in new products, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth in the medium to long term [5]. Financial Data and Forecast - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a total revenue of 24.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.32 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [7]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability with expected improvements in gross margins and net profit margins over the next few years [10].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.2% to 950 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on long-term strategies, emphasizing the development of IP products, and has seen a 16% year-on-year growth in new business revenue despite a 4% decline in traditional core business revenue [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the revenue from writing instruments was 1.99 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 2.0 percentage points to 44.12% [1] - The revenue from student stationery was 2.58 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.57%, up 2.1 percentage points [1] - Office stationery revenue was 2.30 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.55%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its product offerings, including classic bestsellers, high-tech functional products, and innovative IP products that resonate with consumers [2] - The office direct sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.69 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 6.78%, slightly down by 0.34 percentage points [2] - The company plans to focus on four major business segments, enhance its electronic trading system, and improve the sales ratio of self-owned products to boost profitability [2] IP Product Development - The company has increased its investment in IP products, with revenue from the "Morning Glory Life Museum" (including "Nine Wood Miscellaneous Society") reaching 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [3] - The "Nine Wood Miscellaneous Society" alone generated 1.15 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.22% year-on-year, and the company continues to expand its retail presence with over 870 stores nationwide [3] - The company has enhanced its product structure and brand appeal through collaborations with popular IPs and interactive marketing events [3] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 1.38 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, reflecting slight downward revisions [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated to be 19X, 17X, and 15X for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The traditional core business saw a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 16% [2] - The company is focusing on product development, technological innovation, and IP empowerment to enhance its competitive edge [2] - The office direct sales segment reported a revenue of 9.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [3] - The company is increasing its investment in IP products, with revenue from its lifestyle brand reaching 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.38 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 17X, and 15X [5] - The company’s gross margin for writing tools was 44.12%, for student stationery was 35.57%, and for office stationery was 26.55% [1] Business Strategy - The company is committed to long-termism and is enhancing its product offerings, including classic bestsellers and innovative products that resonate emotionally with consumers [2] - The focus on digital transformation and customer expansion is expected to improve profitability in the future [3] - The company plans to continue expanding its retail presence, with over 870 stores nationwide [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, down 7% year-on-year [1] - The company's traditional core business saw a revenue of 2.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, while the online channel revenue from Chenguang Technology increased by 3.1% to 400 million yuan [2] - The KOLIP business experienced significant recovery in Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year, benefiting from the normalization of central state-owned enterprise procurement and successful new customer development [3] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.89%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year, with traditional core business gross margins improving due to product structure optimization [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.4 billion, 28.2 billion, and 31.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.35 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.72 billion yuan, reflecting a long-term growth outlook [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.519 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.89%, with specific product gross margins for writing tools, student stationery, and office stationery at 42.14%, 34.64%, and 27.87% respectively [4] Business Segments - The traditional core business generated 2.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with product sales in writing tools, student stationery, and office stationery showing slight declines [2] - The KOLIP business reported a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a strong recovery and benefiting from new customer acquisition [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with projected revenues increasing by 5%, 11%, and 12% from 2025 to 2027, alongside a recovery in net profit growth [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][21] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.33 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.95 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential turning point in performance as Q3 showed a revenue increase of 7.5% year-on-year [1][5] - The traditional business segment's revenue decline is narrowing, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% for Q1-Q3 2025, while Q3 saw a reduced decline of 3.6%. The online segment, however, experienced a slight slowdown in growth [2][5] - The office direct sales segment achieved a revenue of 3.56 billion yuan in Q3, marking a 17.3% increase year-on-year, driven by the recovery of large state-owned enterprise tenders. Retail store performance remained stable, with revenue from the Morning Light Living Hall reaching 0.41 billion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year [3][5] - The gross margin slightly decreased to 19.9%, with traditional business margins improving. The company effectively controlled expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 6.0% for Q3 [4][5] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.56 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, 11%, and 12% [5][6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.53, 1.69, and 1.89 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.3, 16.6, and 14.8 [6][5]