Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong performance in its new IP product line, with popular products frequently sold out due to supply constraints rather than weak demand. The global IP market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to achieve substantial revenue growth by 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - The new IP product line, including Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle, is performing well, indicating a supply bottleneck rather than a lack of demand [6][8]. - Popular products such as Twinkle Twinkle's "Bee Your Honey" figurine (priced at 199 RMB) and various Crybaby products (priced between 79-199 RMB) are experiencing stock shortages [7]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Brand Collaborations - The company is actively expanding its global presence and engaging in cross-brand collaborations, such as partnerships with Godiva and Chopard [9]. - New stores have opened in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne, indicating strong consumer interest in the company's IP and products [9]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.046 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 138% year-on-year growth, and 42.994 billion RMB in 2026, with a 38% growth [10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 9.821 billion RMB in 2025, a 205% increase, and 13.965 billion RMB in 2026, a 42% increase [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP market is estimated to be worth approximately 800 billion USD, with the company's market share currently at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [14]. - The company aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [14]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The current stock price of 246 HKD offers over 48% upside potential to the target price of 365 HKD, based on a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for 2025 [16][19]. - The company’s strong IP product flywheel effect and efficient direct sales model are seen as key to successful global expansion [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Miniso, particularly in its domestic market, where same-store sales are declining, while the company is attempting to pivot towards larger store formats and IP-driven products to enhance its brand appeal and profitability [2][3][5][6]. Financial Performance - Miniso reported Q1 revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, which was in line with expectations [2]. - Profit margins slightly declined due to increased IP licensing fees and depreciation costs from overseas stores, leading to an 18% drop in stock price following the earnings report [3]. Store Performance - Same-store sales have been under pressure, with a mid-single-digit decline reported for Q1 2024, although the decline was less severe than in Q4 2023 [5]. - The number of domestic stores decreased by 111 to 4,275, marking the first sequential decline in store count [5]. Strategic Shift - The company is shifting its strategy from opening numerous small stores to focusing on larger flagship stores, such as MINISO LAND, which emphasizes immersive shopping experiences [6][7]. - MINISO LAND stores are significantly larger, with areas 3-5 times that of regular stores, and are located in prime commercial districts, leading to increased operational costs [7][8]. IP Development - Miniso is attempting to enhance its product offerings through IP-driven products, but faces challenges in attracting consumers willing to pay a premium for these items [9][10]. - The company has launched TOY TOY, a separate brand focusing on trendy toys, which has shown promising revenue growth but still represents a small portion of overall sales [12][13]. Competitive Landscape - Analysts suggest that Miniso lags behind competitors like Pop Mart in terms of IP product design and market presence, indicating a need for stronger brand differentiation [15][16]. - Despite the challenges, Miniso retains a first-mover advantage in the domestic IP market, but must innovate to maintain relevance in a competitive landscape [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for mid-term growth, suggesting a potential "buy" or "hold" recommendation based on expected recovery in revenue and profit [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak macroeconomic demand [1][2]. - The traditional core business is under short-term pressure, but the product matrix is expected to revitalize through the development of popular products and collaboration with well-known IPs [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure and increasing the share of self-owned brands, particularly in the lifestyle segment, which has shown growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the traditional core business generated approximately 2.054 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year. The breakdown by category shows writing instruments, student stationery, and traditional office supplies with revenues of 564 million, 803 million, and 849 million yuan respectively [2]. - The gross margins for these categories were 43.8%, 35.6%, and 28.5%, with slight variations year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 20.7% and a net profit margin of 6.3% in Q1 2025, with stable operating cash flow of 112 million yuan [4]. Business Segments - The KOLIPU segment reported a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year, but profitability remained stable. The company anticipates a recovery in this segment as downstream bidding normalizes [3]. - The lifestyle segment, including the Jiumu Lifestyle brand, achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, with the Jiumu brand alone generating 388 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a return to stable growth in revenue and profit as the macroeconomic environment improves. Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 1.52 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [4][5].

Core Insights - Miniso has made a strategic investment in Lingmouse Animation, a company founded by Jin Jin, known for creating the popular IP "Ye Luo Li," which has generated over 10 billion yuan in sales from its merchandise [1][2] - This investment indicates Miniso's shift towards developing its own IPs, reducing reliance on high licensing fees for existing popular IPs [2][3] Group 1: Investment and Business Strategy - Miniso's investment in Lingmouse Animation is part of its broader strategy to enhance its core business by exploring self-owned IP models [2][6] - The company has spent 420 million yuan on licensing fees in the past year, highlighting the financial burden of relying on external IPs [2][3] - Miniso aims for IP products to account for over 50% of its total sales by 2028, with current IP product sales already exceeding 30% [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - In 2024, Miniso's total revenue is projected to grow by 22.8% to 17 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing by 15.4% to 2.72 billion yuan [7] - Despite rapid expansion, same-store sales growth has declined, raising concerns among investors, as evidenced by a 9.75% drop in stock price following the financial report [7][8] - The average transaction value has risen to 38.1 yuan, with gross margins climbing to 44.9% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The market for IP products is becoming increasingly competitive, with many retailers entering the space, leading to a "red ocean" scenario [10][11] - Miniso's strategy includes targeting younger consumers, particularly the Alpha generation, and adapting its product offerings accordingly [12][13] - The number of companies in the toy and IP sector has surged, with over 20,800 related enterprises currently registered in China, reflecting a 30.27% increase in new registrations [13][14]