Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The rubber market is in a supply - demand game phase. With the high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, and concerns about production increasing due to firm raw material prices during the low - production season. Coupled with market risk - asset selling caused by the military action between the US, Israel and Iran, the rubber price is expected to oscillate and decline to release some risks [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Performance - On March 4, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,740 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 2.39%. The overall price center of the natural rubber market moved down. The price of 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market dropped 350 yuan/ton to 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese SVR3L mixed rubber dropped 175 yuan/ton to 16,900 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Supply - In January 2026, Thailand's export of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) was 21.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%, and the export to China was 7.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. - From mid - to late February, major producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia entered the low - production season, and due to local rainfall, raw material output was low year - on - year. With limited output and competition among rubber processing plants for inventory, raw material purchase prices were supported. - Domestic production in Yunnan and Hainan was cut off during the winter. The market supply was tight, and the output in the first quarter and the import volume in January and February were likely to decline according to historical rules [2]. 3. Demand - On February 27, 2026, the semi - steel tire production rate in China was 34.56% and the all - steel tire production rate was 29.17%, both lower than the historical average. - Downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work after the holiday, which was in line with historical rules. The demand for high - performance rubber products such as low - rolling - resistance tires increased due to the rapid penetration of new - energy vehicles, while the traditional fuel - vehicle market shrank, leading to a mismatch in the supply and demand of general rubber product capacity [3]. 4. Inventory - As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.366 million tons, a 5.4% increase of 70,000 tons from the previous period. - The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a 10.05% increase of 61,000 tons from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory increased by 12% to 110,800 tons, and the general - trade inventory increased by 9.67% to 556,900 tons. The inventory continued the pre - holiday accumulation trend [4].