截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货 1# 锡报价区间 414250-416250 元 / 吨，均 价 415250 元 / 吨，单日暴涨 11500 元，强势站上 41 万关口。在节后复工提速、全球宏观情绪回暖的双 重驱动下，锡价迎来 "开门红"，但涨幅受限的背后，是供需博弈与外部风险的多重拉扯。本文结合当 日锡市行情、宏观动向及产业逻辑，拆解锡价上涨的核心驱动，为回收商与投资者提供实操参考。 一、价格表现：单日暴涨 11500 元，锡价站上 41 万关口 2 月 26 日，锡价迎来节后最强单日涨幅，长江现货 1# 锡均价跳涨至 415250 元 / 吨，较前一交易日大 涨 11500 元，涨幅近 2.86%。从日内走势看，锡价开盘即跳空高开，依托 41 万关口强势上行，现货市 场 "有货难求"，贸易商惜售情绪浓厚，下游企业询盘踊跃，成交氛围显著升温。 但值得注意的是，锡价涨幅并未延续早盘的强势，午后有所收窄，呈现 "冲高回落" 态势，显示市场在 41 万关口存在明显分歧，短期上涨动能有所衰减。 二、核心驱动：供应收缩 + 宏观利好，涨幅受限源于需求现实 涨幅受限的关键因素 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant demand for silver in the market, driven by both physical investment and industrial needs, leading to a historical premium in silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] - The recent surge in silver premiums is attributed to a supply crisis and depletion of deliverable materials, with analysts indicating that unless smelters increase production significantly during the upcoming holiday, the tightness in supply is likely to persist [3] - The current silver futures trading shows a slight upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 20,600.00 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [1] Group 2 - The silver inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, exacerbating the scarcity of physical silver and leading to increased costs for industrial procurement [3] - There is a dual engine of demand: strong physical investment demand, particularly from the Shenzhen market, and concentrated industrial purchases for solar panel production, as manufacturers rush to complete orders before the April 1 export tax rebate deadline [3] - The trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased to a four-year low, suggesting that investors are reducing positions ahead of the holiday, which may lead to lower volatility in the short term [3][4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply contraction provides price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply contraction in February provides price support, but downstream cost drags down demand, and the large inventory is being reduced slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,375 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.42)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 307,764 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 11, 2026 was 19,317 lots, a change of 1,200 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, and large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, so the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Polysilicon - On February 12, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 48,840 yuan/ton and closed at 49,015 yuan/ton, a 0.44% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 37,702 (38,313 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 4,540 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. N - type material was 48.50 - 58.00 (-0.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a 2.30% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 6.14% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a 0.00% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, a - 3.18% month - on - month change [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - The prices of battery chips were stable. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery chips were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery chips were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - The mainstream transaction prices of components were stable. PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but high polysilicon inventories suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints, and the large - scale inventory reduction is slow, suppressing price increases. There is currently no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8370 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.48)% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2605 held 303387 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 10, 2026, was 18117, a change of 1368 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 56.2 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1]. - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be sluggish. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were few new orders, polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated upward, opening at 48125 yuan/ton and closing at 49180 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38313 positions (38617 the previous day), and the trading volume was 4793 [2]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a 2.40% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 3.77% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 20100.00 tons, a (-0.50)% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a (-11.66)% month - on - month change [2]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillation in the short term. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2][4][5]. Other Products - In the silicon wafer market, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.13 (-0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.43 (-0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.23 (-0.05) yuan/piece [3]. - In the battery cell market, the prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction prices of various components remained stable, such as PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - Two photovoltaic cell renovation projects in Hefei, Anhui, with a total investment of 34,637 million yuan, were publicly announced for environmental assessment [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints. The large - scale inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we need to wait for the supply - demand game [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8430 yuan/ton and closed at 8375 yuan/ton, a change of (- 130) yuan/ton or (- 1.53)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 303387 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 9, 2026, was 18117 lots, a change of 1368 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 56.2 tons, an increase of 1.44% from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be weak. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market was mainly focused on inventory clearance [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and fell, opening at 48815 yuan/ton and closing at 48950 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38617 (38347 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 3991 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a month - on - month change of 2.40%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, with a month - on - month change of 3.77%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 20100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, with a month - on - month change of - 11.66% [3] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components remained stable. There were no quotes and transactions for mainstream polysilicon products this week. Market sentiment was more cautious than last week, new orders were completely stagnant, and only a few companies had small - scale exploratory inquiries. Downstream companies were mainly digesting existing inventories, and the purchasing willingness was extremely low [3][4] Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a complex and volatile situation influenced by macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, with future price movements remaining uncertain [2][3][6] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent positive macroeconomic signals, including rising U.S. stock markets and a declining dollar index, have provided support for copper prices, making it more attractive to overseas buyers [2] - The continuous rise in international oil prices has also boosted market risk appetite, potentially increasing demand for industrial metals like copper [2] Supply Side Challenges - Significant supply disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a reduction of nearly 1 million tons in annual supply, accounting for 4% of global copper supply, with bleak prospects for recovery [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are low, around -50 USD per dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in supply, although refined copper production has increased due to previous high copper prices [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand in China is mixed, with a weakening outlook as buyers extend their holiday breaks and reduce spot purchases, leading to a rise in inventory levels [4] - However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, some downstream enterprises are showing increased pre-holiday stocking demand, providing some support for copper prices [4] Inventory Trends - LME registered copper inventories have increased by 25% to 184,300 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 60% to 248,911 tons, exerting downward pressure on copper prices [5] - The increase in inventory is partly seasonal, and as the holiday period ends, there is potential for inventory to be gradually digested [5] Future Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for copper prices is expected to be volatile, with a potential for upward movement as downstream demand is anticipated to recover post-holiday [6] - Long-term demand prospects for copper remain strong due to global economic recovery and growth in sectors like renewable energy, suggesting opportunities for investors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that carbon black prices are stabilizing within a range, with limited market transactions and a continuation of cost pressures affecting supply and demand dynamics [2][6][10] - Carbon black companies still have pending orders, and overall pricing remains stable, with some companies adjusting prices slightly in line with raw oil price fluctuations [7][9] - Demand for carbon black is characterized by scattered orders that do not represent the broader market, leading to a focus on actual sales negotiations [3][7] Group 2 - The supply and demand for coal tar is imbalanced, with expectations of weak performance; the main transaction prices range from 3650 to 3760 yuan per ton, reflecting a decline of 40 to 200 yuan per ton, particularly in Inner Mongolia [9][10] - Increased output from coking enterprises coincides with the end of downstream inventory buildup, contributing to a more negative market outlook [9][11] - Predictions suggest that coal tar prices will continue to exhibit weak trends, while carbon black prices are expected to stabilize within a range as demand orders decrease [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a shift in focus from "weak demand" to "weak supply-demand balance" as production cuts are implemented by suppliers [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening, with low operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan, and some companies in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia planning maintenance or production cuts due to ongoing losses [1][2]. - A major enterprise in Xinjiang is expected to implement production cuts starting in February, potentially affecting about 50% of its capacity for approximately one month, which has positively influenced market sentiment [1]. Demand Side Summary - Overall downstream demand remains weak, with the polysilicon price stable but inventory levels continuing to rise, limiting the efficiency of procurement despite short-term boosts from export tax policy changes [2]. - The organic silicon market is experiencing low trading activity, and aluminum alloy demand is marginally weakening, leading to primarily just-in-time purchasing for industrial silicon [2]. Price Summary - As of January 28, the industrial silicon futures price was reported at 8,760 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 60 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average price for industrial silicon was stable at 9,245 yuan/ton, with specific regional prices in Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Export FOB prices have decreased by 50 USD/ton due to weak overseas demand [1][2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with Shanghai aluminum futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 25,840.00 yuan/ton and a rise of 3.08% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai aluminum is characterized by a strong upward movement, driven by geopolitical risks and increased market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, leading to a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - Concerns over potential disruptions in aluminum production in the Middle East due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the aluminum market, with a noted increase in prices driven by both events and capital [2] Group 2 - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with operating rates above 96%, while some overseas producers face shutdowns due to power constraints, highlighting a rigid global supply situation [2] - Demand for aluminum is being supported by high growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects, which is further enhanced by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio [2] - The market is currently in a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with short-term price pressures anticipated due to inventory accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting a cautious outlook [2]