Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market conditions of LLDPE and PP in the polyolefin industry [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE,开工 continues to decline, cost transmission is poor, and raw material prices are expected to be strong due to geopolitical factors, while supply and demand factors such as production and inventory need attention [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw material prices fluctuate greatly, spot price increases are slow, cost support is strong, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 8918, with a daily decline of 6.35%, trading volume of 1530549, and a decrease of 58310 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 318 (compared to - 573 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 182 (compared to 211 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8600, 8700, and 8900 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 9114, with a daily decline of 6.93%, trading volume of 1745058, and a decrease of 59592 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 114 (compared to - 493 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 334 (compared to 499 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9000, 9000, and 9300 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - **LLDPE**: PE Exxon LL and Tarim HD are under maintenance, and the operating rate has dropped to 76% (a 10% drop compared to early March), with the standard product production ratio remaining low. Foreign naphtha plants have announced maintenance plans from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop to around 70% in the future [1] - **PP**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's second - line PP is under maintenance, and the PP operating rate has dropped to 70%. There are still many planned PDH maintenance, and PDH profits have reached a new low. The basis remains weak, and cost transmission is poor [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is stagnant, and raw materials such as naphtha are expected to be strong, increasing PE costs. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has rebounded, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the planned maintenance and production reduction in March are increasing, the standard product production ratio is decreasing, and inventory is starting to be depleted [2] - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profits remain low, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Under deep - loss PDH profits, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 1 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline with limited amplitude. The increasing losses of secondary lead and the depletion of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream bargain - hunting replenishment, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices may fall and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain bargain - hunting and rigid - demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory depletion and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 23, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.51 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan per ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,800 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,100 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,360 yuan per ton and closed at 16,395 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,500 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,320 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan per ton and closed at 16,435 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 23, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 23, the LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating is "Neutral". It is recommended to sell call options. The expected operating range of lead prices within the week is 1,6200 - 16,800 yuan per ton, and enterprises can carry out corresponding buying and selling hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, geopolitical sentiment fluctuations and supply - demand games have led to wide - range price fluctuations, with no clear short - term unilateral trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of core variables. Geopolitically, the situation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz affects costs, and shipping companies' surcharges support freight rates in the short term, but cost transfer to the spot market is hindered. On the supply - demand side, April sees a significant increase in shipping capacity, while European demand recovers weakly, and low cargo volume restricts price increases. The operation strategy suggests an interval - oscillation approach, focusing on the core fluctuation range of 1900 - 2100 points, and avoiding blind chasing of highs. [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Containerized Freight Index**: The current values of CCFI comprehensive index, SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFI - Mediterranean, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 1707, 1121, 2922, 1636, 2054, 1556, and 2784 respectively. The previous values were 1710, 1072, 2249, 1121, 3111, 1545, and 2666 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 6.08%, 4.52%, - 0.20%, 1.11%, - 8.67%, 0.71%, and 4.43% respectively. [1][2] Geopolitical News - Trump stated that if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US will destroy its power plants. An oil - tanker operator paid about $2 million to Iran for passage rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran warns of a counter - attack if the US threatens military aggression on Kharg Island. Houthi rebels may join the fight early next week. Deterring other straits is an option for the "Resistance Front". [3] Market Conditions and Strategy - **Market Conditions**: The market shows an oscillating trend. [4] - **Strategy**: Adopt an interval - oscillation approach, focus on the 1900 - 2100 point range, avoid blind chasing of highs, currently maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and closely track the PA alliance's ship - filling progress, geopolitical developments, and oil - price fluctuations. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand game and macro - sentiment pressure lead to a wide - range volatile trend in the lithium carbonate market [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate dropped to 150,120 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is 155,500 yuan/ton. Market inquiries and actual transactions improved compared to the previous day [2] 3.2 Supply - Last week, raw material prices were divided (spodumene prices generally increased, while lepidolite and hectorite prices decreased) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). Imports from Chile in March were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply is steadily increasing, strengthening the medium - term expectation of a loose supply [3] 3.3 Demand - The production schedule expectation in March is optimistic, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. Last week, ternary lithium - iron phosphate production and inventory increased, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. However, downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, creating a stalemate with upstream price - holding [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), and the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Smelters continued to reduce inventory, and downstream inventory increased to 45,600 tons [3] 3.5 Macro Policy - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and geopolitical risk premiums still exist, disturbing market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Domestically, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates (officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost - support center. Developments such as Qinghai Salt Lake development, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentions zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of supply - demand game and will experience wide - range oscillations within a certain range [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The futures market of lithium carbonate continued to be weak yesterday. The main contract oscillated upwards in the afternoon and closed at 159,620 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume and continuous decline in positions. The market sentiment was cautious. The average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices were differentiated (spodumene prices generally increased, while lepidolite and amblygonite prices decreased) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). In March, imports from Chile were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply steadily increased, strengthening the medium - term expectation of supply surplus [4] Demand - side Situation - The production schedule expectation in March was optimistic, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium - iron phosphate increased, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. However, downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices, forming a tug - of - war with upstream price - holding [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern overall. Refineries continued to reduce inventory, and downstream inventory increased to 45,600 tons [4] Macro - policy Impact - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and the geopolitical risk premium still exists, disturbing the market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. Domestically, the subsidy for car trade - ins and the battery export tax rebate (officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which is expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is in a stage of supply - demand game. With the raw material prices remaining firm during the low - production season and increasing concerns about production, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, it is expected that rubber prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to observe more and act less [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 12, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.06%. The overall price center of the natural rubber market rose. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 17,150 - 17,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnam SVR3L mixed rubber was 17,300 - 17,400 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - In mid - to late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season, with raw material output lower than the same period last year and support for raw material purchase prices. Domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the winter suspension period, resulting in a supply gap for domestic rubber. The market as a whole shows a pattern of tight supply. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and production in the first quarter is likely to decline. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On March 6, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 74.03%, lower than the historical average for the same period, and the operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.90%, also lower than the historical average. Currently, spot transactions are sluggish, and downstream production starts are differentiated. Tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and subsequent purchase orders may follow. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 6, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 133,800 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period, a rise of 3.32%. The inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 556,300 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.13% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is in a stage of supply - demand game. With firm raw material prices during the low - production season and increasing concerns about production, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, it is expected that rubber prices may fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 17,180 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +1.63%. The price center of the natural rubber market rose. In the Shanghai market, the intended transaction price of SCRWF mainstream goods was 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnamese SVR3L mixed rubber was 17,200 - 17,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - From mid - to late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season, with raw material output lower than the same period last year, and raw material purchase prices supported. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the winter suspension period, and domestic rubber supply is cut off. The market shows a tight supply pattern. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production is expected to decline from January, and the output in the first quarter is likely to decline. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On March 6, 2026, the semi - steel tire operating rate in China was 74.03%, lower than the historical average; the all - steel tire operating rate was 65.90%, also lower than the historical average. Currently, spot transactions are cold, downstream production starts are differentiated, tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and follow - up purchase orders may appear. The follow - up resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory need to be concerned. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information research data, in the week of March 6, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 133,800 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons or 3.32% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 556,300 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons or 0.13% from the previous period [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is generally loose. After the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines resumed production rapidly, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. Meanwhile, the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance to a high - level and the accumulation of port inventory also contributed to the loose supply. The upstream mine inventory began to accumulate, while downstream coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory and were cautious in purchasing [3][48]. - The coke supply shows a steady and increasing trend. After the Spring Festival, the decline in coking coal prices led to a significant repair of coking enterprise profits. The average national profit per ton of coke turned positive, which boosted production enthusiasm, increased the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, and increased the daily output month - on - month. The inventory structure features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills [3][48]. - After the Spring Festival, steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as terminal projects started and profits were repaired. The blast furnace operation gradually recovered. There was a slight decline in molten iron production during the Two Sessions due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills has decreased, and the expectation of replenishing inventory has increased [3][48]. - In March, the energy disturbance is intensifying. Although the resumption of blast furnace production is expected to improve demand, there is still supply pressure. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards. The reference range for coke is 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton, and for coking coal is 1000 - 1380 yuan/ton [3][49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the fundamental market were both weak. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated weakly, with the main contract down about 5.3% in the month. The spot price of coke remained stable, and the futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract down 5% in the month. Overall, the performance of coking coal and coke in February was weaker than that of steel products [8]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Rapidly Resumed Production - In February, coking coal production was characterized by pre - festival production reduction and post - festival rapid resumption. During the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines stopped production, and the output reached a seasonal low. After the holiday, the resumption of coal mines accelerated. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of sample mines rebounded by 14 percentage points to 82.3%. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased significantly compared with that before the festival, and the supply gradually became loose, putting pressure on prices [9]. 2.2 Good Momentum of Coking Coal Imports - After the Spring Festival, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal quickly recovered to a high level. The daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 1100 - 1500, with a significant year - on - year increase. Mongolia plans to export 100 million tons of coal to China in 2026. In December 2025, China's coking coal imports increased by 28.57% year - on - year to 13.7698 million tons, and the annual import volume remained high. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78% of the total imports. It is expected that the import volume will remain high and effectively supplement the domestic supply [13]. 2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In February, the coking coal inventory showed obvious differentiation. Affected by pre - festival inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and mine shutdowns, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of 523 sample mines decreased. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory, and the upstream inventory began to accumulate due to rapid resumption of production. At the beginning of March, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of sample mines increased [26]. 2.4 Stable Coke Supply - In February, the coke supply remained stable overall. After the Spring Festival, coking enterprises resumed production in an orderly manner, and the supply gradually increased. The decline in coking coal prices improved the profitability of coking enterprises. The average national profit per ton of coke increased from - 55 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to + 17 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants increased, and the daily output also increased [28]. 2.5 Coke Import and Export - There is no actual data on coke import and export in 2026. In 2025, China's coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. It is expected that the export volume in 2026 will be basically the same [31]. 2.6 Coke Inventory - The coke inventory features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills, and the total inventory remains stable. As of March 6, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The total coke inventory decreased slightly in the whole month. If the terminal demand recovers, the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is expected to be relieved [33]. 3. Demand Side: Gradual Recovery after the Spring Festival - In February, the blast furnace production generally increased steadily, with pre - festival maintenance and post - festival resumption. After the Spring Festival, as terminal projects started and profits were repaired, the blast furnace operation gradually recovered. During the Two Sessions, there was a slight decline in molten iron production due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. The demand for coke is expected to continue to recover in March, but the incremental space is limited due to the slow recovery of the terminal [36]. 4. Market Outlook - The coking coal supply is loose, the coke supply is increasing steadily, and steel mills are resuming production. The Two Sessions in March released positive signals, but the real estate market is still at risk, and overseas uncertainties are increasing. It is necessary to focus on the impact of global energy price increases on coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards in March [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to exhibit a "weak supply and demand" pattern, with futures prices supported by cost factors and a slight recovery in macro sentiment, while the spot market remains stagnant [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Post-Spring Festival, production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations, particularly in Xinjiang, where pre-holiday production cuts were effective in reducing inventory levels [2]. - In the Southwest region, high electricity costs and seasonal drought conditions have kept operational rates low, with Yunnan operating at less than 10% and Sichuan nearly at zero [2]. - Inner Mongolia's production is constrained due to slow resumption after pre-holiday cuts, while Gansu's operations remain stable despite ongoing losses due to long-term contracts [2]. Demand Side Summary - Overall demand recovery post-holiday has been weaker than expected, particularly in the polysilicon sector, where high inventory levels and price declines have limited procurement [3]. - The organic silicon market shows signs of reduced demand support due to new production cuts, while the aluminum alloy sector is experiencing slow recovery due to low construction activity and a slowdown in automotive growth [3]. - Export markets are affected by fluctuations in photovoltaic component policies and exchange rates, with domestic prices remaining firm despite weak overseas demand [3]. Market Dynamics Summary - The market is characterized by a three-way interplay of rising cost support, realized supply contraction, and weak demand recovery [4]. - Short-term price expectations for industrial silicon suggest a continued oscillation around a stable bottom, with limited upward drivers from supply releases and downward pressure from demand constraints [4]. - The focus remains on the resumption pace of major producers in Xinjiang and the inventory reduction progress in polysilicon [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The rubber market is in a supply - demand game phase. With the high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, and concerns about production increasing due to firm raw material prices during the low - production season. Coupled with market risk - asset selling caused by the military action between the US, Israel and Iran, the rubber price is expected to oscillate and decline to release some risks [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Performance - On March 4, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,740 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 2.39%. The overall price center of the natural rubber market moved down. The price of 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market dropped 350 yuan/ton to 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese SVR3L mixed rubber dropped 175 yuan/ton to 16,900 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Supply - In January 2026, Thailand's export of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) was 21.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%, and the export to China was 7.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. - From mid - to late February, major producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia entered the low - production season, and due to local rainfall, raw material output was low year - on - year. With limited output and competition among rubber processing plants for inventory, raw material purchase prices were supported. - Domestic production in Yunnan and Hainan was cut off during the winter. The market supply was tight, and the output in the first quarter and the import volume in January and February were likely to decline according to historical rules [2]. 3. Demand - On February 27, 2026, the semi - steel tire production rate in China was 34.56% and the all - steel tire production rate was 29.17%, both lower than the historical average. - Downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work after the holiday, which was in line with historical rules. The demand for high - performance rubber products such as low - rolling - resistance tires increased due to the rapid penetration of new - energy vehicles, while the traditional fuel - vehicle market shrank, leading to a mismatch in the supply and demand of general rubber product capacity [3]. 4. Inventory - As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.366 million tons, a 5.4% increase of 70,000 tons from the previous period. - The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a 10.05% increase of 61,000 tons from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory increased by 12% to 110,800 tons, and the general - trade inventory increased by 9.67% to 556,900 tons. The inventory continued the pre - holiday accumulation trend [4].