Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, 2025, the preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in China was released. Starting from August 14, importers need to pay an additional deposit to the customs when importing Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit rate of 75.8% for all Canadian companies. This will suppress the trading willingness of importers and exporters and reduce the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][12]. - The implementation of the anti - dumping preliminary ruling will hinder the import of Canadian rapeseed after August 14. Coupled with limited alternative sources of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second half of the year, the already significantly reduced rapeseed import volume in the second half of 2025 will decline further. As the second half of the year is the peak season for oil consumption, it is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil, which is currently de - stocking slowly and has the highest inventory level in history, thus benefiting the spot and futures prices and basis performance of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - Currently, the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the policy may change before the final ruling. In the future, new Australian rapeseed may re - enter China, and China may also increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE. The consumption substitution of other oils for rapeseed oil will also affect the price of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - In terms of strategy, the 09 and 01 contracts of rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, hitting the previous pressure level of 10,500 - 11,000. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and those who already hold long positions should continue to hold. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread of rapeseed oil and the rebound of the 01 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. In addition, focus on China's import policies related to rapeseed and rapeseed oil [2][13][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed Imports - The deposit for importing Canadian rapeseed is calculated based on the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed. Taking the rapeseed import cost on August 12 as an example, the deposit for the November shipment of Canadian rapeseed is 3,322 yuan/ton. The deposit is levied on Canadian companies, and domestic enterprises may also face the risk of deposit transfer [5]. - After the implementation of the new rule, the trading willingness of importers and exporters has been severely suppressed. It is difficult to add new Canadian rapeseed purchase contracts, and some existing purchase contracts after August may be cancelled. Since June, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed has gradually declined. The estimated total import volume of rapeseed from July to October is 590,000 tons, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period last year, and there is a possibility of further tightening [7]. Limited Alternative Sources of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Although the import sources of domestic rapeseed oil are diverse, no country can supply as much as Canada. Since March, China has imposed a 100% anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed oil, and the import volume has shrunk rapidly [7]. - The possibility of Australian rapeseed re - entering the Chinese market has increased significantly, but the expected output of Australian rapeseed in the 25/26 season is only 5.71 million tons, and it also needs to supply traditional markets such as the EU and Japan. The amount that can be exported to China may be quite limited, and the peak export season starts in November, so it cannot make up for the absence of Canadian rapeseed from September to October [8]. - Russia's rapeseed production is expected to increase to 5.3 million tons in the 25/26 season, but its rapeseed oil will not enter China in large quantities until October. The import volume of Russian rapeseed oil from October to December in 2023 - 24 was lower than the rapeseed oil output converted from the import volume of Canadian rapeseed during the same period [8]. - The annual rapeseed crushing capacity of the UAE is only about 1 million tons, and its export volume of rapeseed oil to China from July to December in 2023 - 24 was relatively small [8]. Impact on Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Due to the import obstruction of Canadian rapeseed and limited alternative sources, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed will be significantly tightened in the second half of 2025. Coupled with the peak consumption season of oils in the fourth quarter, the supply will decrease while the demand increases, which will accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil. As of the week of August 8, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 659,200 tons, still at the highest level in history, and there is still supply pressure. Accelerating inventory reduction will help the spot and futures prices and basis of domestic rapeseed oil to rise further [10]. - The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the final ruling will be determined between September 2025 and March 2026 at the latest. Before the final ruling, the regulations on the import of Canadian rapeseed may change. In addition, China may re - allow the import of Australian rapeseed and increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE, which will affect the price of rapeseed oil [10]