商务部于2026年2月12日（星期四）15时召开例行新闻发布会。商务部办公厅副主任、新闻发言人何亚 东出席，介绍相关情况并回答媒体提问。 以下为发布会文字实录 何亚东 各位记者朋友： 大家下午好，欢迎参加商务部例行新闻发布会。今天我没有需要向大家通报的信息。下面我愿意回答记 者朋友提出的问题。 下面请提问。 南方都市报记者 昨天国家层面海外综合服务平台正式上线，得到各方关注，能否请发言人介绍一下升级后的平台有哪些 亮点？ 何亚东 2月11日，国家层面海外综合服务平台正式上线运行，这是落实党的二十届四中全会精神，完善海外综 合服务体系的重要举措。2025年10月，经国务院批准，商务部等部门印发《关于进一步完善海外综合服 务体系的指导意见》。根据要求，商务部集成各方资源，将原来的"走出去"公共服务平台升级为国家层 面海外综合服务平台，为企业出海提供全流程、全链条"一站式"公共服务。升级后的平台功能主要呈现 三个特点： 一是提升内容系统权威性。升级后的平台，统筹法律、财税、金融、外事、经贸、物流、海关、贸促等 领域服务资源。总栏目数量大幅增加，设置新闻动态、数看"走出去"、公共服务、专业服务、在线办 事、各方平台、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices support the firmness of the oil and fat market, and the prices of the three major oils were volatile yesterday. The data from shipping survey agencies shows that the recent exports of Malaysian palm oil have increased month - on - month, and the international crude oil has risen by about 3%, providing strong support for oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,270.00 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan or +0.35% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan or +0.82%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 80.00, a change of -22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan/ton or +0.94%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 294.00, a change of +12.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of OI05 + 830.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 482 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 228 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, with no change [2] C&F Prices of Imported Oils - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,202 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,137 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, with no change. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]

菜籽油期货主力涨超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 南华期货 菜油仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势 瑞达期货 菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 1月26日盘中，菜籽油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9356.00元。截止发稿，菜籽油主力 合约报9345.00元，涨幅4.08%。 加菜籽新作产量同比大幅增长，全球菜籽供应宽松，美国生物燃料政策提振加菜籽。市场对最终开放加 拿大菜籽进口持乐观态度，目前市场传言已出现加菜籽买船，但现货层面前期澳籽并未开始压榨，菜油 仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势，后续仍需关注政策动向。 瑞达期货（002961）：菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼访问期间与中国签 署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面，美国 生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十日出口明显增加。另 外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价 ...

国内豆粕市场基本面也出现了一些积极变化。吴晓杰表示，截至1月16日当周，国内油厂豆粕商业库存 为95万吨，已经连续第二周去库。"这一方面源于元旦过后油厂开机尚未完全恢复，周度压榨量持续处 于200万吨以下，供应有所放缓；另一方面，全国大部分地区启动春节备货，下游用户元旦后陆续加快 提货节奏，增加物理库存，从全国平均水平来看，截至1月16日当周，饲料企业库存可用天数为12.84 天，环比增加14%。" 据刘金鹭介绍，临近春节，豆粕正加速去库。1月进口大豆到港量减少，全月压榨量预计降至800万吨， 豆粕产出受限，预计一季度国内豆粕供应偏紧格局将延续；需求端，畜禽存栏处于高位，饲料刚性需求 坚实，近期油厂提货数据显示，下游饲料企业从随用随采转向适度备货，提货积极性显著提升。 不过，市场仍存在不容忽视的利空因素。吴晓杰表示，本周油厂压榨量再次回到200万吨以上，春节前 或保持该水平，而备货增量相对有限，市场整体供应充裕，这限制了现货一口价与基差的走势。 国际市场方面，陈界正分析称，南美地区整体丰产特征比较明显，巴西产量大幅增加，在国际需求增量 有限的背景下，后续巴西货源的报价面临回落压力，这也给豆粕成本端带来潜在压力 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday due to the adjustment of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, which suppressed part of the global oil consumption, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8578.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan or 1.94% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 7938.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.00 yuan or 0.78%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 8828.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.00 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.72%, with a spot basis of P05 + 2.00, an increase of 20.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.83%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 392.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.72%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 852.00, an increase of 51.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Import Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 527 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1193 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1126 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1050 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1030 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 446 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel [2] Export Volume - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 690,642 tons, a 17.53% increase compared to the same period last month [2] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy is "Neutral" [4] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources mainly from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, with significant fluctuations in prices and a notable decrease in inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2492.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 2415.00 CNY and 2514.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.21% [1]. - The total number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 2745 as of November 14, but there has been a cumulative decrease of 6344 receipts over the past month, representing a decline of 69.80% [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - Canadian canola prices for January and March shipments increased by 1 USD/ton, reaching 531 USD/ton and 539 USD/ton, respectively [1]. - The export volume of Canadian canola decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons for the week ending November 9, down from 188,400 tons the previous week [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The USDA has revised the 2025/26 U.S. soybean yield estimate down to 53.0 bushels per acre, leading to a total production forecast of 4.253 billion bushels, which is lower than previous estimates [2]. - Domestic canola consumption is under pressure due to limited imports from Canada and a general decline in demand as temperatures drop, impacting aquaculture needs [2]. - The market is currently facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with expectations of lower canola meal demand due to the availability of soybeans and the competitive advantage of soybean meal [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of Sino-US negotiations. With the expectation of 12 million tons of exports to China being gradually priced in, the ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, there is limited upward momentum due to the expected smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal is constrained by high near-term inventories, so the rebound space is limited. If the purchase of US soybeans is effectively initiated, it will bring a downward drive for the far-term, but the downward range is also limited due to the cost support from the rebound of the external market. For rapeseed meal, due to the ongoing Sino-Canadian negotiations affecting market expectations, the near-term futures performance is slightly stronger, but it is not advisable to chase the long side [1]. - The far-month soybean import profit has slightly recovered but remains at a low level, indicating limited far-term soybean purchases. With the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market expects the resumption of US soybean purchases, alleviating the far-term supply gap. For rapeseed meal, there is a near-term supply gap due to Sino-Canadian tariffs, but demand is expected to weaken simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year. The "anti-involution" policy for downstream pigs is unlikely to effectively reduce demand, so the demand reduction is expected to be limited. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has returned to normal, laying a foundation for a smooth harvest, while the soil moisture in Argentina is still slightly dry. The subsequent pressure of a bumper harvest will be transmitted to the domestic meal market in the form of basis [15]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on US soybean exports to China, with limited upward momentum. The domestic market is constrained by high near-term inventories, and the far-term may face downward pressure if US soybean purchases resume [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by Sino-Canadian negotiations, the near-term performance is slightly stronger, but chasing the long side is not recommended. The domestic rapeseed import has decreased significantly this year, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected resumption of Sino-Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover [1][2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [23]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options, selling 3300 call options for the M2601 contract; sell 2600 call options for the rapeseed meal 2601 contract [23]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulating option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks, and view the basis as likely to return to positive and strengthen. Hold the positive spread positions for M3 - 5 and M1 - 3. Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts when the spread is between 650 - 700 [24]. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The soybean meal price is expected to range between 2800 - 3300, and the rapeseed meal price between 2250 - 2750 [26]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [26]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [27]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed various trends, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The import costs and压榨 profits of US and Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed were also provided [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10, but the release is uncertain due to the government shutdown). As of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state has reached 76.13% of the expected area [31]. - **Negative Information**: Chinese importers have booked Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. If China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year, it can meet the USDA's export target for the 2024/25 season, but it may not drive a continuous price increase. The short-term price increase sustainability needs to be observed, and if the agreement implementation falls short of expectations, there may be technical profit-taking pressure [32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a just-in-time basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the USDA releases the supply and demand report on November 10. Also, pay attention to various reports such as the USDA export inspection report, Brazilian Secex weekly and monthly reports, USDA crop growth report, and CFTC agricultural product position report [37][40]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures rebounded due to short covering and the increase in external market costs. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, with a stronger rebound due to reduced warehouse receipt pressure and Sino-Canadian trade relationship uncertainties. The capital flow shows that foreign institutional short positions were closed, and institutional long positions were reduced in the second half of the week, indicating limited upward space. The put-call ratio (PCR) of soybean meal options shows a return of bearish sentiment [38]. - **Month Spread Structure**: The futures month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally show a B structure in the first half of the year and a C structure in the second half, related to their seasonal supply patterns. This week, the 1 - 5 month spread of soybean meal first rose and then fell, and the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal strengthened due to the unilateral increase in the 01 contract [43]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined this week due to the faster increase in futures prices than spot prices. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased [47]. - **External Market**: The external and domestic markets showed a more consistent trend this week. After the expectation of Sino-US trade talks and the news of soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed suit. The net long positions of CBOT soybean management funds have returned above the zero line, indicating a short-term return of long funds [52][56]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, but the monthly crushing volume remains at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened, while the domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the current US soybean crushing profit under a 13% tariff. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the future is limited, and the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline seasonally around holidays. Although the import of rapeseed shows a crushing profit, due to the import margin requirement, future purchases are expected to remain cautious [63]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply and Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the new crop balance sheet in September, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to marginally decrease after being adjusted to the highest level in history. The total production is expected to remain between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. On the demand side, the crushing volume is expected to continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to Sino-US trade relations. If Sino-US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above-normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the potential import of US soybeans, the domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and then recover in the first quarter of next year. The import of rapeseed will continue to remain at a low level [70]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry-over inventory from the third quarter and the arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter. After the previous high-level stocking, the subsequent consumption growth of domestic soybean meal is expected to be limited [74]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - The domestic soybean inventory is currently at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease and then stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory will also remain high despite the decline in raw material inventory and crushing volume [76].

Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - Analysts expect an increase in China's imports of U.S. soybeans, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation, while Brazilian soybean exports are rising and Argentine exports remain high, contributing to ample international supply [1][2] - Domestic soybean imports from September to December are projected to be high, leading to a continued accumulation of soybean meal stocks until the end of November, with weekly inventories rising [1][2] Group 2 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which negatively impacts soybean meal prices [2] - Measures to adjust the breeding sow population in China may affect future demand for soybean meal in feed [2] - Despite a significant drop in soybean meal prices, uncertainties surrounding U.S. soybean exports may provide some rebound potential [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for Canadian canola imports and a decline in purchasing activity from aquaculture due to seasonal demand [3] - Trade policies are acting as a double-edged sword for rapeseed meal prices, with the cessation of Canadian canola imports providing support, while improved relations with Australia and increased orders for Australian canola are weakening this support [3] - Canadian canola harvest is progressing, with a reported 3.6% year-on-year increase in production, which could further pressure rapeseed meal prices if imports resume [3][4] Group 4 - Short-term inventory pressures for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are manageable, but port inventories of granular meal are at historically high levels, limiting upward price movement [4] - Traders are advised to closely monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].