加拿大菜籽

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双粕联袂下跌,宏观预期生变?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 23:32
Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - Analysts expect an increase in China's imports of U.S. soybeans, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation, while Brazilian soybean exports are rising and Argentine exports remain high, contributing to ample international supply [1][2] - Domestic soybean imports from September to December are projected to be high, leading to a continued accumulation of soybean meal stocks until the end of November, with weekly inventories rising [1][2] Group 2 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which negatively impacts soybean meal prices [2] - Measures to adjust the breeding sow population in China may affect future demand for soybean meal in feed [2] - Despite a significant drop in soybean meal prices, uncertainties surrounding U.S. soybean exports may provide some rebound potential [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for Canadian canola imports and a decline in purchasing activity from aquaculture due to seasonal demand [3] - Trade policies are acting as a double-edged sword for rapeseed meal prices, with the cessation of Canadian canola imports providing support, while improved relations with Australia and increased orders for Australian canola are weakening this support [3] - Canadian canola harvest is progressing, with a reported 3.6% year-on-year increase in production, which could further pressure rapeseed meal prices if imports resume [3][4] Group 4 - Short-term inventory pressures for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are manageable, but port inventories of granular meal are at historically high levels, limiting upward price movement [4] - Traders are advised to closely monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations [4]
油脂周报:双月报中性偏空油脂预计维持震荡格局-20250915
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].
油脂日报:油脂多空交织,价格静待驱动-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 06:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]
加菜籽反倾销调查初审落地,菜油价格短期偏强震荡
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 08:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, 2025, the preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in China was released. Starting from August 14, importers need to pay an additional deposit to the customs when importing Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit rate of 75.8% for all Canadian companies. This will suppress the trading willingness of importers and exporters and reduce the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][12]. - The implementation of the anti - dumping preliminary ruling will hinder the import of Canadian rapeseed after August 14. Coupled with limited alternative sources of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second half of the year, the already significantly reduced rapeseed import volume in the second half of 2025 will decline further. As the second half of the year is the peak season for oil consumption, it is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil, which is currently de - stocking slowly and has the highest inventory level in history, thus benefiting the spot and futures prices and basis performance of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - Currently, the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the policy may change before the final ruling. In the future, new Australian rapeseed may re - enter China, and China may also increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE. The consumption substitution of other oils for rapeseed oil will also affect the price of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - In terms of strategy, the 09 and 01 contracts of rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, hitting the previous pressure level of 10,500 - 11,000. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and those who already hold long positions should continue to hold. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread of rapeseed oil and the rebound of the 01 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. In addition, focus on China's import policies related to rapeseed and rapeseed oil [2][13][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed Imports - The deposit for importing Canadian rapeseed is calculated based on the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed. Taking the rapeseed import cost on August 12 as an example, the deposit for the November shipment of Canadian rapeseed is 3,322 yuan/ton. The deposit is levied on Canadian companies, and domestic enterprises may also face the risk of deposit transfer [5]. - After the implementation of the new rule, the trading willingness of importers and exporters has been severely suppressed. It is difficult to add new Canadian rapeseed purchase contracts, and some existing purchase contracts after August may be cancelled. Since June, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed has gradually declined. The estimated total import volume of rapeseed from July to October is 590,000 tons, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period last year, and there is a possibility of further tightening [7]. Limited Alternative Sources of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Although the import sources of domestic rapeseed oil are diverse, no country can supply as much as Canada. Since March, China has imposed a 100% anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed oil, and the import volume has shrunk rapidly [7]. - The possibility of Australian rapeseed re - entering the Chinese market has increased significantly, but the expected output of Australian rapeseed in the 25/26 season is only 5.71 million tons, and it also needs to supply traditional markets such as the EU and Japan. The amount that can be exported to China may be quite limited, and the peak export season starts in November, so it cannot make up for the absence of Canadian rapeseed from September to October [8]. - Russia's rapeseed production is expected to increase to 5.3 million tons in the 25/26 season, but its rapeseed oil will not enter China in large quantities until October. The import volume of Russian rapeseed oil from October to December in 2023 - 24 was lower than the rapeseed oil output converted from the import volume of Canadian rapeseed during the same period [8]. - The annual rapeseed crushing capacity of the UAE is only about 1 million tons, and its export volume of rapeseed oil to China from July to December in 2023 - 24 was relatively small [8]. Impact on Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Due to the import obstruction of Canadian rapeseed and limited alternative sources, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed will be significantly tightened in the second half of 2025. Coupled with the peak consumption season of oils in the fourth quarter, the supply will decrease while the demand increases, which will accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil. As of the week of August 8, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 659,200 tons, still at the highest level in history, and there is still supply pressure. Accelerating inventory reduction will help the spot and futures prices and basis of domestic rapeseed oil to rise further [10]. - The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the final ruling will be determined between September 2025 and March 2026 at the latest. Before the final ruling, the regulations on the import of Canadian rapeseed may change. In addition, China may re - allow the import of Australian rapeseed and increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE, which will affect the price of rapeseed oil [10]
油脂周报:豆油继续强势关注下周双月报指引-20250811
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:11
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]
2025年8月油脂油料市场展望:政策、关税发力,油脂走势分化
Hua An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].
三季度菜籽买船偏少 菜籽粕有偏空调整需求
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-28 08:56
Group 1 - Domestic rapeseed meal spot prices showed slight fluctuations, with Dongguan rapeseed meal quoted at 2560 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 28, rapeseed meal prices across various regions in China ranged from 2450 yuan/ton to 2800 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Liaoning province [2] - The futures market saw the main rapeseed meal contract closing at 2660.00 yuan/ton on July 28, with a decrease of 0.82% [2] Group 2 - Canadian rapeseed prices for October and December shipment periods decreased by 3 USD/ton, now at 583 USD/ton and 573 USD/ton respectively [3] - Global rapeseed production for the 2024/25 season is expected to decline by 4.4 million tons, with significant reductions in the EU and Ukraine [3] Group 3 - The export progress of the previous season's rapeseed is relatively fast, but the available export volume is limited [4] - The uncertainty in China-Canada trade relations and the promotion of low-protein feed technology by the Ministry of Agriculture may negatively impact rapeseed meal demand [4] - The seasonal influx of Brazilian soybeans and the introduction of Argentine soybean meal may exert downward pressure on rapeseed meal prices [4]
美豆产区天气良好,油脂持续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The weather in the US soybean producing areas remains favorable, with temperatures in July being temporarily lower and sufficient precipitation. Multiple institutions expect the US soybean production to continue rising, leading to significant supply pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,678.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a环比 increase of 34 yuan or 0.39%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,920.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 26.00 yuan or 0.33%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 88.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 110.00 yuan or 1.28%, with a spot basis of P09 + 52.00, a环比 increase of 76.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 180.00, a环比 increase of 36.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,640.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 90.00 yuan or 0.92%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 130.00, a环比 decrease of 2.00 yuan [1] Market News - BMI predicts that after a 1.6% year - on - year decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop 2% from 39 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 38 million tons. StoneX analysts believe that the production outlook for US soybeans continues to improve due to good weather. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, etc., have different price adjustments. Import soybean premium quotes also show some changes [2] Group 4: Charts Information - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]
需求端回暖支撑消费乐观预期 菜籽粕震荡偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 08:51
6月4日,生意社菜籽粕基准价为2548.33元/吨,与本月初(2565.00元/吨)相比,下降了-0.65%。 (6月4日)今日全国菜籽粕价格一览表 规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2460元/吨 市场价 福建省/厦门市 福建厦门市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2500元/吨 市场价 天津 天津市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2620元/吨 市场价 辽宁省/营口市 辽宁营口市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2470元/吨 市场价 湖北省/荆州市 湖北荆州市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2420元/吨 市场价 江苏省/南通市 江苏南通市场 期货市场上看,6月4日收盘,菜籽粕期货主力合约报2543.00元/吨,跌幅1.89%,最高触及2564.00元/ 吨,最低下探2524.00元/吨,日内成交量达464176手。 【市场资讯】 6月4日,加拿大菜籽(7月船期)C&F价格584美元/吨,与上个交易日相比下调15美元/吨;加拿大菜籽(8 ...