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油脂日报:原油价格走低,三大油脂承压-20260401
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating and falling due to the recent significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the three major vegetable oils. However, from a fundamental perspective, the further implementation of biodiesel in Southeast Asia in the future, combined with the later shift in El Niño weather, will strongly support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9866.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 64 yuan and a range of - 0.64%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8668.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 46.00 yuan and a range of - 0.53%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9884.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a range of - 0.07% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9830.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 160.00 yuan and a range of + 1.65%, and the spot basis was P05 - 36.00, with a month - on - month change of + 224.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 50.00 yuan/ton and a range of + 0.57%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 192.00, with a month - on - month change of + 96.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20.00 yuan and a range of - 0.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 516.00, with a month - on - month change of - 13.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) was 476 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (April shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (May shipment) was 139 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - Other oil prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1299 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1120 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 591 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 600 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, trading volumes, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]
粕类周报:震荡回调,关注美豆种植-20260323
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 06:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the industry is "oscillating weakly" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the meal market, suggesting that the soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the recovery of Brazilian shipping and the expected increase in US soybean planting area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by short - term supply shortages and medium - term supply increases, following the soybean meal trend but weaker [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Brazilian soybean shipping has basically returned to normal, with an expected shipment of about 10 million tons in March, alleviating supply concerns. The visit of the Brazilian agriculture minister to China and the Brazilian trucker strike are new uncertainties. Global soybean production is expected to be abundant, and the expected increase in the area of new US soybean crops will suppress price upside. Rapeseed meal has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term supply increase [5] - **Demand**: Short - term soybean meal demand has rigid support due to a large breeding inventory, but the concern about shortages in April has eased, and long - term demand is expected to decline due to capacity reduction. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of aquaculture, but there is an expected seasonal increase in demand from April to June, and the expanding spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are currently high, but domestic soybean meal is expected to further reduce inventory in April. The national rapeseed meal inventory has increased weekly and is at a low level, supporting near - month prices [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening, and the M05 - M09 spread is weakening. The M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended [5] - **Profit**: The Brazilian CNF premium for soybean meal has risen, and the price has oscillated downward this week, leading to a decline in the crushing profit. The rapeseed meal crushing profit has increased this week [5] - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is at a relatively low historical valuation and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low price and has room for valuation repair [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. The US biodiesel policy supports long - term US soybean demand. China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Brazilian agriculture minister's visit to China and the Sino - US trade talks in April on soybean trade [5] - **Investment View**: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to international trade policy changes and US soybean planting area adjustments. For the spread, attention should be paid to the M05 - M09 reverse spread opportunity. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the soybean meal trend but is weaker [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate weakly, and the M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended. Policy and weather should be monitored [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In March, the 25/26 global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio was raised [30] - **Canadian Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The March report shows a downward adjustment of the Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [37] - **US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit is at a high level [43] - **US Soybean Export Sales Progress**: The export sales progress is slow [51] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate**: The harvest rate is presented in the data [58] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Inventory**: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, inventory, and related costs such as CNF premiums and import crushing profits are provided [60][62][66][68] - **Oil Mill Operation and Sales**: Data on the operation rate, crushing volume, sales volume, and consumption of oil mills are presented [76][78][86][90] - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: Data on feed production, livestock farming profits, and related market indicators are provided [97][99][107][113]
现货市场表现清淡,油脂震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 05:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for oils and fats is sluggish, and prices are oscillating. Global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may delay purchases and limit upward price movement. After a significant increase driven by crude oil prices, spot demand remains weak, leading to an adjustment in oils and fats prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Performance - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9796 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.07% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8616 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan or 0.76% [1] Spot Market Performance - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of P05 - 76 yuan, down 74 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.69%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 184 yuan, down 16 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10380 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.68%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 526 yuan, down 4 yuan [1] Recent Market News - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 598 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton; (July shipment) was 607 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1248 dollars/ton, up 56 dollars/ton; (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, up 29 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 dollars/ton, unchanged; (June shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 509 dollars/ton, unchanged; US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 dollars/ton, unchanged; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 480 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 222 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; US West Coast (April shipment) was 206 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 145 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel [2] - From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects palm oil prices to remain above 4450 ringgit/ton due to strong energy prices and favorable palm - gasoline spreads [2] - International CNF quotes for palm oil continued to rise, increasing China's import costs. On March 18, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil for April and May shipments were 1200 dollars/ton and 1228 dollars/ton respectively, up 22 - 50 dollars/ton from the previous week [2]
多空驱动交织,油脂震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated. Driven by rising crude oil, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of biofuel policies, the market is short - term bullish, but the fundamental demand is weak. The strengthening of the energy attribute has driven the prices of palm oil and soybean oil to rise in tandem with crude oil. The tense situation in the Middle East has enhanced the economic viability of biodiesel, supporting the prices of oils and fats. However, high inventories and the post - holiday consumption off - season have made downstream procurement cautious. Overall, the oils and fats are oscillating [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9954.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 56 yuan and a decline of - 0.56%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8644.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 72.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9833.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 115.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.10%, and the spot basis was P05 - 104.00, with a month - on - month change of - 54.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8770.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 120.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.35%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 126.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 170.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 527.00, with a month - on - month change of - 55.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 594 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 600 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1238 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price was 1220 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 472 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 299 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 283 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 130 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of easing, international crude oil prices remain high, and the shipping freight for imported soybeans in China continues to rise. On March 16, the shipping freight for soybeans from the US Gulf to China was quoted at 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the same period last week; the freight from the US West to China was quoted at 33 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the freight from Brazil to China was quoted at 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]
商务部2月12日召开例行新闻发布会
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-02-12 10:47
Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of a national-level overseas comprehensive service platform on February 11, 2026, aimed at enhancing the overseas service system for enterprises [4][5] - The upgraded platform features three main characteristics: increased authority of content, integrated comprehensive services, and improved user experience [5] - The platform now includes over 260 sub-columns, significantly enhancing service precision and practicality compared to the previous "going out" public service platform [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce is focused on optimizing the regional layout of the silk industry, with a target of exceeding 300 billion yuan in total output value by 2028 [7] - The ministry plans to strengthen policy support and build cooperation platforms to facilitate the orderly transfer of the silk industry across regions [7] - Initiatives include enhancing technological advancements and organizing events like silk expos to promote regional cooperation and project implementation [7] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce is maintaining close communication with the U.S. on economic and trade issues, aiming for healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. trade relations [8] - The ministry supports the negotiation process between Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and the EU regarding tariff exemptions and pricing commitments [9] - The ministry is also addressing trade issues with Canada, including the anti-dumping measures on canola seeds, with a final ruling expected by March 9, 2026 [10]
原油价格支撑,油脂盘面坚挺
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 04:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices support the firmness of the oil and fat market, and the prices of the three major oils were volatile yesterday. The data from shipping survey agencies shows that the recent exports of Malaysian palm oil have increased month - on - month, and the international crude oil has risen by about 3%, providing strong support for oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,270.00 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan or +0.35% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan or +0.82%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 80.00, a change of -22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan/ton or +0.94%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 294.00, a change of +12.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of OI05 + 830.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 482 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 228 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, with no change [2] C&F Prices of Imported Oils - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,202 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,137 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, with no change. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]
菜籽油仍处于去库阶段 期货盘面呈偏强震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-26 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant increase in canola oil futures, which rose by 4.08% to reach 9345.00 yuan, indicating strong market dynamics and potential future trends in the canola oil sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Canola oil futures experienced a sharp rise, with the main contract peaking at 9356.00 yuan, reflecting a robust market response [1]. - The market is currently in a destocking phase for canola oil, with a strong basis maintained, indicating ongoing demand despite fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The production of new canola crops has significantly increased year-on-year, contributing to a relaxed global supply situation for canola [2]. - Optimism regarding the eventual opening of Canadian canola imports is present, with reports of Canadian canola purchases emerging, although prior Australian canola has not yet begun processing [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures emphasizes that canola oil remains in a destocking phase, with a strong basis, while also highlighting the need to monitor policy developments [2]. - Ruida Futures notes that canola oil's recent performance has lagged behind palm oil, with increased short-term volatility expected due to a relatively loose global and Canadian canola supply-demand landscape [2].
注意,关键指标升至历史高位!豆粕期价被低估?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-21 23:59
Group 1 - The recent warming of China-Canada economic and trade relations has led to a significant decline in domestic soybean meal futures, particularly the 2605 contract, influenced by expectations of reduced import tariffs on Canadian canola [1] - The oil-meal ratio has risen to 2.95, a historical high, with the average since 2013 being 2.26, indicating a strong market dynamic [1] - The anticipated reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola to 15% by March 1 is expected to increase imports significantly, impacting soybean meal demand negatively in the short term [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased to 950,000 tons, marking the second consecutive week of inventory reduction, driven by lower crushing volumes and increased purchasing by feed enterprises ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - The expected soybean crushing volume for January is projected to drop to 8 million tons, leading to a tight supply situation for soybean meal in the first quarter [2] - Despite positive demand from livestock and poultry sectors, the overall supply remains ample, which may limit price increases in the spot market [2] Group 3 - Internationally, Brazil's increased soybean production is expected to exert downward pressure on soybean meal prices, despite good domestic demand [3] - The market anticipates that the upcoming increase in soybean imports and the recovery of oil mill operations post-Spring Festival will significantly affect supply dynamics [3] - The overall supply-demand balance in the international soybean market remains loose, with Brazilian harvest pressures likely to suppress soybean meal prices [3] Group 4 - The soybean meal market is expected to exhibit a "near strong, far weak" pattern, with short-term price recovery anticipated before the Spring Festival, followed by increased supply pressure post-harvest [4] - The surge in canola and canola meal imports may further impact soybean meal prices negatively after the Spring Festival [4]
油脂日报:棕榈油生柴政策影响,盘面承压震荡-20260116
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 05:20
Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday due to the adjustment of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, which suppressed part of the global oil consumption, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8578.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan or 1.94% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 7938.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.00 yuan or 0.78%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 8828.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.00 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.72%, with a spot basis of P05 + 2.00, an increase of 20.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.83%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 392.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.72%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 852.00, an increase of 51.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Import Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 527 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1193 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1126 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1050 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1030 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 446 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel [2] Export Volume - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 690,642 tons, a 17.53% increase compared to the same period last month [2] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy is "Neutral" [4] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources mainly from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]
油粕日报:震荡整理-20260105
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 11:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]