声明说："然而，我们经济的其他领域，包括木材、钢铁、铝和汽车，受到美国关税的严重影响。我们 将继续就长期贸易关系与美国谈判，但加拿大新政府已采取重大行动来保护加拿大的就业机会、投资我 们的工业竞争力、购买加拿大产品以及实现出口市场多样化。" 【文/观察者网 陈思佳】本周早些时候，加拿大主要反对党保守党领袖皮埃尔·普瓦列夫尔在阿尔伯塔省 补选中获胜，将以议员身份重返加拿大众议院。据加拿大《环球邮报》8月21日报道，普瓦列夫尔20日 在新闻发布会上抨击加拿大总理卡尼，声称加拿大与美国和中国打交道时"太软弱"，扬言应以"强势姿 态"行事。 普瓦列夫尔称，卡尼未能有效维护加拿大利益，尽管执政的自由党政府对美国作出让步，取消了遭到美 国总统特朗普批评的数字服务税计划，但美国依然提高了对加拿大的关税，"他向特朗普总统做出一个 又一个让步，却什么都没有得到回报。" 《环球邮报》指出，自3月以来，加拿大和美国进行了贸易谈判，双方互相加征了关税。对于普瓦列夫 尔的指责，加拿大总理办公室回应称，根据2018年加拿大、美国和墨西哥达成的自由贸易协定，美国对 加拿大商品的平均关税税率仍然是其所有贸易伙伴中最低的之一。 的数量显著增长 ...

2025.08. 16 本文字数：1354，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 据悉，中国在世贸组织（WTO）就加拿大钢铁等产品进口限制措施提起诉讼。 据商务部信息显示，当地时间7月16日，加拿大财政部网站发布公告，表示为应对美国钢铁关税和全 球钢铁产能过剩，自8月1日起，将扩大进口钢铁关税配额适用范围、收紧现有配额，对配额外进口 征收附加税。此外，将对自美国以外国家进口的含有在中国熔化和浇铸钢铁的产品征收25%的附加 税。 对此，商务部新闻发言人在7月18日表示，加方以保护本国产业为由，宣布采取对含有中国钢铁成分 的产品加征关税等单边措施，有关做法违反WTO规则，扰乱国际贸易秩序，损害中方利益，是典型 的单边主义、保护主义行径。 商务部新闻发言人还表示，事实上，造成加国内钢铁产业遭遇困境的主要原因是美国的单边关税措 施，但加政府却回避主要矛盾，还试图将产业损害转嫁给包括中国在内的其他贸易伙伴。加方做法于 理不合、于法无据、于事无补，将严重损害中加两国正常经贸合作。 商务部发言人还表示，中方希望加方从维护多边贸易体制、维护中加经贸关系大局出发，立即纠正错 误做法，停止限制措施。中方将采取一切必要措 ...

敦促加方纠正错误做法 据商务部信息显示，当地时间7月16日，加拿大财政部网站发布公告，表示为应对美国钢铁关税和全球 钢铁产能过剩，自8月1日起，将扩大进口钢铁关税配额适用范围、收紧现有配额，对配额外进口征收附 加税。此外，将对自美国以外国家进口的含有在中国熔化和浇铸钢铁的产品征收25%的附加税。 "我们敦促加方立即采取行动，纠正错误做法，维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，推动中加经贸关系 持续改善。" 据悉，中国在世贸组织（WTO）就加拿大钢铁等产品进口限制措施提起诉讼。 商务部网站发布信息显示，商务部新闻发言人对此表示，8月15日，中方在WTO起诉加拿大钢铁等产品 进口限制措施。 商务部新闻发言人表示，加方无视WTO规则，出台钢铁关税配额措施，并对含所谓"中国钢铁成分"等 产品加征歧视性关税，是典型的单边主义和贸易保护主义做法，损害中方合法权益，扰乱全球钢铁等产 业链供应链稳定。中方对此强烈不满，坚决反对。 商务部新闻发言人表示，我们敦促加方立即采取行动，纠正错误做法，维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体 制，推动中加经贸关系持续改善。 近期，商务部还发布了对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽、原产于加拿大等国的进口卤化丁基橡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily hard to disprove [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as relevant market data and news, suggesting a long - position in the oils and fats market due to non - falsifiable bullish drivers [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Data Spot Price - On August 13, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9520, 9450, and 9380 respectively, with a daily increase of 120 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8720, 8840, and 8820 respectively, with a daily increase of 170 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10260, 10310, and 10520 respectively, with a daily increase of 500 [1] Futures Data - On August 13, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 848, up 38 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1488, up 162 [1] - The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1420, unchanged; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22170, an increase of 216; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487, unchanged [1] Market News - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that imported Canadian rapeseed was dumped. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies [2] - Affected by the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic long - term rapeseed procurement progress is slow. The imported rapeseed arrival volume in August is expected to be about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From August 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased 23.3% and 23.7% respectively compared with the same period last month according to ITS and AmSpec [2] - The USDA report adjusted the new - crop soybean yield per acre from 52.5 bushels/acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels/acre but unexpectedly reduced the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - The US soybean and corn good - to - excellent rates as of August 10 were 68% and 72% respectively, in line with market expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The initial ruling of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds has led to a significant increase in domestic canola meal and oil prices, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to rising import costs and strong domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market for oilseeds has shown a strong performance, particularly in canola meal, with the RM2509 contract experiencing a daily increase of over 6% [1]. - The initial ruling determined a dumping margin of 75.8% for Canadian canola seeds, which will increase the cost of imports starting August 14 [2]. - Canada accounts for over 90% of domestic canola seed imports and over 70% of canola meal imports, making the ruling impactful on supply [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current peak demand for canola meal coincides with the busy season for aquaculture, creating a strong demand-supply dynamic [3]. - The supply of canola seeds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, which could further support prices for canola meal and oil [2][3]. - Domestic canola meal inventory has decreased from approximately 900,000 tons to 630,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that canola meal prices will maintain a strong upward trend, while the price potential for canola oil may be less pronounced due to increased imports from other sources [3][4]. - The reliance on Canadian canola seeds is significant, and unless imports from Australia normalize, the price of canola meal is expected to continue rising [3][4]. - The competition from soybean meal, which remains a primary protein source, may limit the long-term price increases for canola meal [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, highlighting the significant 75.8% deposit requirement and its potential impact on the domestic canola industry and market dynamics [4][5][18]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary ruling set to be released by August 12, 2025 [4]. - The deposit requirement of 75.8% for Canadian companies is a temporary measure aimed at mitigating the damage caused by dumping until a final ruling is made [5][18]. - The investigation is expected to last up to 18 months, with the final decision anticipated within the next 7 months [18]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Canola Industry - The anti-dumping measures aim to restore the net profit and competitiveness of the domestic canola industry, as current prices for domestic canola have decreased from 6100 CNY/ton to 5700 CNY/ton [8]. - The domestic canola futures market is expected to see increased activity, with a recommendation to buy low on domestic canola futures contracts [8]. - The high deposit rate may lead to a reduction in import willingness from domestic industries, affecting overall supply and pricing dynamics [5][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The investigation has already led to a tightening of canola imports, with some crushing enterprises halting canola meal sales [10]. - The supply of canola meal is particularly concerning, as imported canola meal faces a 100% tariff, limiting its entry into the domestic market [10]. - The article suggests that alternative sources for canola oil and meal may include imports from Dubai and Russia, but the supply of canola meal remains a challenge [14][19]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2019 blackleg disease incident, which also affected Canadian canola exports to China, indicating that trade normalization may depend on the resolution of tariff disputes [12]. - Future supply paths for canola meal may include the restoration of Australian canola imports and adjustments to the delivery standards for Indian and Russian canola meal [16]. - The overall market for canola oil is expected to remain stable, with potential price increases as demand continues to grow [19].

研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 玻璃方面，供应端：玻璃产线冷修数量减少1条，产量小幅增加，但是整体产量还在底部，刚需生产迹象明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-13 | 最新 环比 | | | | | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 环比 | | | | | 数据指标 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1383 169 | | | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1214 141 1217919 64009 | | | | | -26 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -167 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | | | | | 1023728 149431 纯碱前20名净持仓 -327717 37629 | | | | | 期货市场 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, 2025, the preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in China was released. Starting from August 14, importers need to pay an additional deposit to the customs when importing Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit rate of 75.8% for all Canadian companies. This will suppress the trading willingness of importers and exporters and reduce the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][12]. - The implementation of the anti - dumping preliminary ruling will hinder the import of Canadian rapeseed after August 14. Coupled with limited alternative sources of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second half of the year, the already significantly reduced rapeseed import volume in the second half of 2025 will decline further. As the second half of the year is the peak season for oil consumption, it is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil, which is currently de - stocking slowly and has the highest inventory level in history, thus benefiting the spot and futures prices and basis performance of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - Currently, the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the policy may change before the final ruling. In the future, new Australian rapeseed may re - enter China, and China may also increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE. The consumption substitution of other oils for rapeseed oil will also affect the price of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - In terms of strategy, the 09 and 01 contracts of rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, hitting the previous pressure level of 10,500 - 11,000. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and those who already hold long positions should continue to hold. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread of rapeseed oil and the rebound of the 01 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. In addition, focus on China's import policies related to rapeseed and rapeseed oil [2][13][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed Imports - The deposit for importing Canadian rapeseed is calculated based on the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed. Taking the rapeseed import cost on August 12 as an example, the deposit for the November shipment of Canadian rapeseed is 3,322 yuan/ton. The deposit is levied on Canadian companies, and domestic enterprises may also face the risk of deposit transfer [5]. - After the implementation of the new rule, the trading willingness of importers and exporters has been severely suppressed. It is difficult to add new Canadian rapeseed purchase contracts, and some existing purchase contracts after August may be cancelled. Since June, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed has gradually declined. The estimated total import volume of rapeseed from July to October is 590,000 tons, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period last year, and there is a possibility of further tightening [7]. Limited Alternative Sources of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Although the import sources of domestic rapeseed oil are diverse, no country can supply as much as Canada. Since March, China has imposed a 100% anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed oil, and the import volume has shrunk rapidly [7]. - The possibility of Australian rapeseed re - entering the Chinese market has increased significantly, but the expected output of Australian rapeseed in the 25/26 season is only 5.71 million tons, and it also needs to supply traditional markets such as the EU and Japan. The amount that can be exported to China may be quite limited, and the peak export season starts in November, so it cannot make up for the absence of Canadian rapeseed from September to October [8]. - Russia's rapeseed production is expected to increase to 5.3 million tons in the 25/26 season, but its rapeseed oil will not enter China in large quantities until October. The import volume of Russian rapeseed oil from October to December in 2023 - 24 was lower than the rapeseed oil output converted from the import volume of Canadian rapeseed during the same period [8]. - The annual rapeseed crushing capacity of the UAE is only about 1 million tons, and its export volume of rapeseed oil to China from July to December in 2023 - 24 was relatively small [8]. Impact on Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Due to the import obstruction of Canadian rapeseed and limited alternative sources, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed will be significantly tightened in the second half of 2025. Coupled with the peak consumption season of oils in the fourth quarter, the supply will decrease while the demand increases, which will accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil. As of the week of August 8, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 659,200 tons, still at the highest level in history, and there is still supply pressure. Accelerating inventory reduction will help the spot and futures prices and basis of domestic rapeseed oil to rise further [10]. - The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the final ruling will be determined between September 2025 and March 2026 at the latest. Before the final ruling, the regulations on the import of Canadian rapeseed may change. In addition, China may re - allow the import of Australian rapeseed and increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE, which will affect the price of rapeseed oil [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA August supply - demand report shows adjustments in 2025/26 soybean data for the US, Brazil, Argentina, and globally, with changes in areas, yields, production, exports, and inventories [1]. - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts for August have increased, and Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 have significantly increased compared to the same period last month [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts a 3% growth in Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production, but the 2024/25 export volume may decline [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian imported rapeseed, and import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin starting from August 14, 2025 [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The sown area is estimated at 80.9 million acres (July estimate: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area at 80.1 million acres (July estimate: 82.5 million acres) [1]. - The yield per acre is estimated at 53.6 bushels (July estimate: 52.5 bushels), and the production at 4.292 billion bushels (July estimate: 4.335 billion bushels) [1]. - Exports are estimated at 1.705 billion bushels (July estimate: 1.745 billion bushels), and the ending stocks at 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels) [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's production is estimated at 175 million tons, and exports at 112 million tons, unchanged from July estimates [1]. - Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons (unchanged from July), and exports at 5.8 million tons (July estimate: 5 million tons) [1]. - China's imports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from July [1]. - Global production is estimated at 426.39 million tons (July estimate: 427.68 million tons), and ending stocks at 124.9 million tons (July estimate: 126.07 million tons) [1]. 3.3 August Export Forecasts for Brazil - The soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.8 million tons (previous week's estimate: 8.15 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.27 million tons (previous week's estimate: 1.74 million tons) [1]. 3.4 Malaysian Palm Oil Export Data - From August 1 - 10, 2025, the export volume of palm oil products was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month (205,225 tons) [1]. 3.5 Indonesia's Palm Oil Situation - Affected by reduced demand from major importing countries and the B40 biodiesel blending policy, the 2024/25 export volume may drop to 22.8 million tons [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts that the 2025/26 production will increase by 3% to 47 million tons due to favorable weather and sufficient fertilizer use [1]. 3.6 Anti - Dumping Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed - China's Ministry of Commerce has initially determined that Canadian imported rapeseed is being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry [1]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin to Chinese customs [1]. 3.7 Other Information - There are data on oil imports' profit, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil - oilseed futures price spreads, but specific numerical summaries are not provided here due to the large amount of data [1].

智通财经APP获悉，日本将对部分来自中国和韩国的钢铁产品启动反倾销调查，这是该国为保护本土生 产商、应对进口冲击采取的最新措施。日本贸易和财政部周三在一份声明中表示，调查预计将在一年内 完成，将调查热浸镀锌卷板和带材的流动情况。今年4月，包括新日铁和神户制钢在内的四家公司提出 了申请。日本贸易部和财政部表示，将为包括韩国和中国供应商在内的相关方提供陈述证据的机会，然 后再决定是否征收关税。 ...