上海发布"沪七条"房地产优化政策 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美特使要求伊朗核协议永久有效 美国要求伊朗核协议永久有效，这无疑增加了谈判的难度，全 球市场风险偏好继续回升。 宏观策略（股指期货） 上海发布"沪七条"房地产优化政策 综 上海房地产新政进一步降低购房门槛，释放积极的政策信号。 房地产板块上涨但涨幅有限，应理性看待新政能带来的实际效 果。在人口老龄化、收入承压背景下，居民加杠杆受限。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 4095 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 短期来看，房地产政策难以成为驱动债市持续下跌的核心因素， 在通胀回升等利空被债市确认之前，债市情绪难言趋势性转弱， 部分时刻债市还有反弹动力。长期债市不乐观。 农产品（棉花） 截至 2026 年 2 月 21 日，巴西棉花种植完成 99.9% 节后纺织企业正陆续复工，部分纺企因原料大涨而上调棉纱报 价，涨幅不及棉花；部分纺企暂停报价。纱布市场交投暂未完 全恢复，布厂及终端对于原料上涨的接受能力还有待观察。 有色金属（铜） ICSG：2025 年全球精炼铜 ...

中国淀粉(03838)发布公告，本集团预计截至2025年12月31日止年度(本年度)取得总收入约人民币100.58 亿元，而2024年的总收入为人民币114.15亿元。相较于截至2024年12月31日止年度的除税前利润人民币 8.38亿元，本集团预计本年度取得除税前利润大幅减少约64%。 (v)本年度淀粉糖的预期传统旺季(即国家假日及夏季月份)并未如期出现。 (ii)中国玉米淀粉及赖氨酸行业持续供应过剩，使市场价格承受持续下行压力。尤其是赖氨酸市场价格 于本年度下半年大幅下跌，对本集团盈利能力造成不利影响。 (iii)于2025年期间，多个国家对中国产的赖氨酸发起反倾销调查。随着海外买家减少订单，部分塬定出 口的产品转向国内市场，进一步加剧供应过剩的局面，对国内赖氨酸价格造成额外下行压力。 (iv)本年度临清生产基地的淀粉扩产项目对产能造成影响，原因为其中一条淀粉生产线已被拆除，以配 合扩建相关施工工程。淀粉生产项目的详情载于本公司日期为2025年2月20日的公告。 本年度预计收入及除税前利润减少主要由于以下因素。 (i)2024年表现异常强劲，主要受玉米粒成本下降所驱动。相较之下，本年度玉米粒价格已连续三个 ...

(iii)于2025年期间，多个国家对中国产的赖氨酸发起反倾销调查。随着海外买家减少订单，部分塬定出 口的产品转向国内市场，进一步加剧供应过剩的局面，对国内赖氨酸价格造成额外下行压力。 (iv)本年度临清生产基地的淀粉扩产项目对产能造成影响，原因为其中一条淀粉生产线已被拆除，以配 合扩建相关施工工程。淀粉生产项目的详情载于本公司日期为2025年2月20日的公告。 (v)本年度淀粉糖的预期传统旺季(即国家假日及夏季月份)并未如期出现。 (i)2024年表现异常强劲，主要受玉米粒成本下降所驱动。相较之下，本年度玉米粒价格已连续三个季度 上涨。本集团的该成本上涨压力对利润率造成不利影响。 (ii)中国玉米淀粉及赖氨酸行业持续供应过剩，使市场价格承受持续下行压力。尤其是赖氨酸市场价格 于本年度下半年大幅下跌，对本集团盈利能力造成不利影响。 智通财经APP讯，中国淀粉(03838)发布公告，本集团预计截至2025年12月31日止年度(本年度)取得总收 入约人民币100.58亿元，而2024年的总收入为人民币114.15亿元。相较于截至2024年12月31日止年度的 除税前利润人民币8.38亿元，本集团预计本年度取得除税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an extension of the investigation period for anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds until March 9, 2026, indicating the complexity of the case [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - During Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China in January, both countries made specific arrangements to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola seeds, and agricultural products [1] - Canada will make positive adjustments regarding unilateral measures taken against Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products [1] - China will consider Canada's reasonable requests within the framework of rules and will make an objective and fair final decision based on facts and evidence [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a press conference addressing the anti-dumping case regarding Canadian canola imports, with spokesperson He Yadong providing updates on the situation [1][3] - During Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau's visit to China in January, both countries agreed to address trade issues in various sectors, including electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola, and agricultural products [3] - The investigation period for the anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola has been extended to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case, with a final ruling to be announced by the Ministry of Commerce before this date [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent arrangements made between China and Canada to address trade issues in sectors such as electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola, and agricultural products [1] - Canada will actively adjust its unilateral measures against Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products [1] - China will also adjust its anti-discrimination measures against Canada based on relevant laws and regulations [1] Group 2 - The investigation period for the anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola has been extended to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue a final ruling before the extended deadline, considering Canada's reasonable demands within the framework of rules [1] - The final decision will be made objectively and fairly based on facts and evidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has extended the investigation period for the anti-dumping case on Canadian canola imports until March 9, 2026, emphasizing a fair and evidence-based final ruling [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation into the anti-dumping case for Canadian canola has been extended due to the complexity of the case [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue an arbitration announcement before the extended deadline of March 9, 2026 [1] Group 2: Bilateral Trade Relations - During Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China in January, both countries agreed to address trade issues in sectors such as electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola, and agricultural products [1] - Canada is expected to make positive adjustments regarding unilateral measures taken against Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products [1] - China will consider reasonable requests from Canada and adjust its anti-discrimination measures accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has made a preliminary ruling on the "countervailing and anti-dumping" investigation regarding Van-Type Trailers and their subassemblies from Mexico, Canada, and China, indicating potential harm to the U.S. domestic industry [1][2] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation focuses on whether Van-Type Trailers exported from Mexico to the U.S. harm the domestic industry, including products from Canada and China [2] - The ITC's preliminary ruling was published on February 6, 2026, with a written report expected on March 19, 2026 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) will continue the investigation, with preliminary results for the "countervailing" investigation due on March 27, 2026, and for the "anti-dumping" investigation on June 10, 2026 [1] Group 2: Company Response - The company, CIMC Vehicles, through its U.S. subsidiary Vanguard Global Trailer Holding and its three subsidiaries, is actively responding to the investigation [2] - A project team is collaborating with local experts to submit necessary materials as required by the ITC and DOC, while ensuring the stability of the existing supply chain for Van-Type Trailers subassemblies [2] - The company anticipates that the entire investigation process will take approximately 12-18 months to complete and finalize results [2]

Group 1 - Global canola production is experiencing a mild recovery, but major producing countries face export challenges. Canada and the EU account for over 65% of global canola production, with both regions expected to see reduced output in the 2024/25 season, particularly the EU, which is projected to decline by over 13% year-on-year due to extreme weather conditions [2][19][20] - For the 2025/26 season, global canola production is estimated at 92.27 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by a recovery in EU production, which is expected to rise nearly 20% [20][19] - Canada remains the primary exporter of canola, with a projected production of 20.028 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 12% increase despite a 2% decrease in planting area [22][19] Group 2 - The anti-dumping investigation initiated by China against Canadian canola has significantly impacted export volumes, with a sharp decline in exports observed since May, leading to a substantial increase in Canadian canola inventory [22][5] - The future price dynamics of canola oil will depend on the outcome of the anti-dumping case, with two potential scenarios: continued tension in China-Canada relations leading to sustained supply issues, or a thawing of relations resulting in increased exports from Canada [22][24] - The final ruling on the anti-dumping case is expected to influence the pricing and valuation system for canola oil, with market sentiment likely to fluctuate based on the outcome [24][25] Group 3 - China imported 6.39 million tons of canola in 2024, with 95.8% sourced from Canada. However, due to ongoing trade tensions, Australia and Russia are emerging as alternative suppliers [11][27] - The domestic inventory of canola is under pressure, with a significant reduction in imports from Canada leading to a tight supply situation. As of November 21, coastal oil mills had only 24,500 tons of canola in stock, a drop of over 50% from the peak in May [28][12] - Despite weak demand for canola oil, stable withdrawal volumes are expected to continue until trade channels with Canada are reopened, maintaining a tight supply situation and providing price support [30][14] Group 4 - The oilseed sector is anticipated to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, influenced by international trade relations and biofuel policies. The outcome of the anti-dumping case will be a critical factor in determining future price trends [31][16] - If relations between China and Canada improve, a potential price drop may occur, while continued tensions could lead to price increases, despite the introduction of Australian and Russian canola into the market [31][16]

Group 1 - The core announcement is that CIMC Vehicles' subsidiary, Vanguard Global Trailer Holding, along with three other companies, is participating in a countervailing and anti-dumping investigation initiated by the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding box semi-trailers and their components produced in Mexico, Canada, and China [2] - The investigation was officially launched on January 21, 2026, following a request from the U.S. Trailer Manufacturers Association, which claims that the high export levels of box semi-trailers from Mexico are putting pressure on the domestic industry [2] - The announcement indicates potential market adjustment opportunities for component suppliers from other regions that have advantages in product quality, technical compatibility, and supply chain resilience, due to the potential demand for alternative suppliers in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. International Trade Commission is expected to make a preliminary ruling on industry damage by February 17, 2026, with the Department of Commerce planning to release preliminary rulings on countervailing and anti-dumping investigations on March 27 and June 10, 2026, respectively [3] - CIMC Vehicles has established a dedicated project coordination team at its headquarters to ensure the orderly delivery of necessary documents and materials for the investigation, given the supply chain relationship between Vanguard Global and CIMC's subsidiary in Qingdao [3] - Vanguard Global has set up a specialized project organization in the U.S. and hired a professional legal team to actively respond to the investigation, aiming to maintain a stable supply chain and accelerate the expansion of its component production capacity in the U.S. [3] - The investigation is currently in the investigation phase, with a final result expected to be announced in approximately 12 to 18 months [3]