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中信建投展望2026年宏观经济:房地产有望见底企稳
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-09 12:38
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with an emphasis on optimizing industrial structure and enhancing technological innovation [1] Economic Outlook - GDP growth target is set at approximately 5% [1] - Average consumption growth rate is expected to be around 5% [1] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to return to positive territory, while Producer Price Index (PPI) remains in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to maintain an expansionary trend at around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Anticipation of rising gold prices and slight increases in oil prices [1] - Suggestion to overweight A-shares while maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance on the bond market [1] - Caution advised for U.S. stocks, with expectations of a bull market for U.S. Treasuries [1] - Potential upward movement for the Renminbi is anticipated [1] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on four main investment themes: technological innovation, cyclical infrastructure, service consumption, and public utility dividends [1]