Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The automotive lightweighting trend is irreversible, driven by "dual carbon" policies and the endogenous needs of new energy vehicles. Aluminum alloy is the most cost - effective lightweight material under the current technical system, and its application in the automotive industry is gradually expanding. However, the process of "aluminum replacing steel" is more complex than expected, and the development of automotive casting aluminum alloy consumption needs to be comprehensively considered from multiple aspects such as technology, market, and policy [3][11][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Era Wave: Automotive Lightweighting in Progress - **"Dual Carbon" Policy as the Core Driving Force**: The "dual carbon" policy is the fundamental driving force for automotive lightweighting. The "Technical Roadmap 2.0" and "Technical Roadmap 3.0" of energy - saving and new energy vehicles have set clear goals for automotive lightweighting and carbon emission reduction at different stages [3] - **Material Lightweighting and Aluminum Alloy Advantages**: Material lightweighting is the foundation, and among various lightweight materials, aluminum alloy has significant advantages. It has good weight - reduction effects, corrosion resistance, and is more cost - effective compared to magnesium alloy and carbon fiber materials, making it the most cost - effective lightweight material at present [8][11] - **Regenerated Aluminum as the Primary Choice**: Regenerated aluminum has become the primary choice for automotive die - castings due to its ability to meet the performance requirements of die - cast aluminum alloy, and it also has significant economic and environmental benefits [12][14] - **Rapid Development of Integrated Die - Casting**: Integrated die - casting can simplify the automotive manufacturing process, reduce costs, and improve manufacturing accuracy and structural strength. It has been actively promoted by Tesla and domestic car - making new forces [15] - **免热处理压铸铝合金引领潮流**:免热处理压铸 aluminum alloy is an important cornerstone of integrated die - casting. Although it currently uses primary aluminum, regenerated aluminum is expected to benefit in the future [18] 2. Peering into the Application of Automotive Aluminum Alloy - **Body Lightweighting**: Aluminum alloy penetration in the body is accelerating, and the steel - aluminum hybrid body has become the mainstream. Different parts of the body use different aluminum alloy materials, such as 5XXX and 6XXX series deformed aluminum alloys for body panels, and AlSi10MnMg alloy for body structural parts [25][35][36] - **Chassis Lightweighting**: Chassis lightweighting has entered a new stage, and aluminum alloy is reshaping the future of the chassis. Although there is a gap in the aluminization rate between domestic and foreign markets, it is expected to accelerate penetration [40] - **Engine Lightweighting**: Aluminum alloy is widely used in engine components such as cylinder blocks, cylinder heads, pistons, etc., which can effectively reduce the weight of the engine and improve fuel efficiency [43][44] - **Three - Electric System Lightweighting**: The concept of automotive lightweighting has shifted from "lighter single components" to "optimal system integration", and the battery system is a typical example [48] - **Management System Lightweighting**: Aluminum alloy is the basic material for the automotive thermal management system. The rise of new energy vehicles has driven the increase in the demand for aluminum heat - transfer materials, and aluminum brazing composite materials are the core beneficiaries [49] 3. Thoughts on "Aluminum Replacing Steel": Deviation of Linear Extrapolation - **Reasons for the Complexity of "Aluminum Replacing Steel"**: There are four main reasons for the complexity of "aluminum replacing steel", including battery technology breakthroughs, the shortcomings of single - material replacement, market acceptance and business logic, and the cost challenges of integrated die - casting [54] - **Observation Perspectives**: Through the analysis of the changes in the exhibition cars at the ECB conference, the evolution of the body materials of Audi A8 and NIO's full - range models, it is found that the application of steel - aluminum hybrid bodies is gradually increasing, and multi - material collaborative design will become the industry norm [57][61][64] 4. Bottom - Up Calculation of the Consumption of Automotive Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Selection of the Caliber of Aluminum Consumption per Vehicle**: The data from the CM Group is selected as the underlying data for splitting and prediction because it is considered to be more in line with the actual aluminum consumption per vehicle in the automotive industry [70] - **Calculation Logic of ADC12 Consumption in the Automotive Industry**: A calculation model is constructed, including benchmark data decomposition, component material identification, differentiated correction for different models, and final summation to estimate the total ADC12 consumption in the automotive industry [72] - **Calculation of Aluminum Consumption per Component for Different Types of Vehicles**: The aluminum consumption per vehicle and ADC12 consumption per vehicle for fuel vehicles, pure - electric vehicles, and hybrid vehicles in 2025 and 2030 are calculated respectively [74][76][78] - **Sales Forecast of the Chinese Automotive Industry during the "15th Five - Year Plan"**: It is expected that the production and sales of the Chinese automotive industry will continue to reach new highs in 2025, and the new energy vehicle market will become more competitive in the future [79] - **Calculation of Aluminum Consumption and ADC12 Demand for Different Vehicle Types in the Chinese Automotive Industry**: It is expected that the ADC12 consumption of fuel vehicles will gradually decrease, while that of new energy vehicles will continue to increase. The total consumption of recycled casting aluminum alloy may remain stable [81]