2025 年 10 月 9 日 ——"铸铝"前行-铸造铝合金期货上市系列报告（八） | 王 蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王宗源(联系人) | 投资从业资格号：F03142619 | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 报告导读： 上市以来，铸造铝合金期货价格一直维持震荡偏强走势，整体呈现重心上移，但从成交量和持仓量来 看品种活跃度一直偏低。主要原因在于上市初主力合约为 AD2511，距离交割时间较长，远期合约下市场 观望情绪浓厚，前期参与度偏低。参考氧化铝上市后运行情况，随着首批仓单成功注册，合约进入连续交 割后，后续市场活跃度有望逐渐提升。 尽管节前铸造铝合金价格高位震荡回落，一度回到 20000 关口附近，但我们认为，对于铸造铝合金的 期货价格或不宜过度看空。随着汽车年末冲量阶段的开启，四季度铸造铝合金的季节性表现可能更强，叠 加税返政策取消逐步落地以及废铝供应持续偏紧，成本端抬升逻辑会对价格形成较强的支撑。参考对电解 铝方向的中期趋势性判断，在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Outlook - The company is actively promoting its capital increase plan disclosed on July 23, 2025, and is preparing for project application [1] - By 2027, the production of recycled aluminum is expected to exceed 15 million tons, driven by green and low-carbon development opportunities [2] - The company aims to enhance its strategic layout by focusing on industry trends and market opportunities for sustainable long-term development [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Comparisons - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin for recycled aluminum was below 3%, while the industry average exceeded 6% [2] - The company's gross profit margin is influenced by various factors, including sales and raw material markets, with a slight increase compared to the previous year [2] - Differences in product categories and applications between the company and its peers contribute to variations in gross profit margins [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Project Updates - The main ongoing project is the Anhui Phase II project, which includes an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of aluminum plates and 630,000 tons of aluminum ingots [2] - The company is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness and operational performance to create long-term value for shareholders [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Xiangyang into a green and livable city through ecological governance and industrial upgrades, achieving a balance between ecological and economic benefits [1]. Environmental Improvement - Xiangyang has implemented a rigorous water pollution prevention strategy, focusing on the protection of the Han River, which is crucial for high-quality development [3][4]. - The city has established a comprehensive water management approach, integrating water resources, ecology, and governance, and has formed collaborative mechanisms with neighboring regions for ecological protection [3]. - The water quality in Xiangyang has shown significant improvement, with 28 monitored sections maintaining a 100% excellent water quality rate for two consecutive years [4]. Air Quality and Pollution Control - The city prioritizes air quality improvement, with a focus on enhancing public perception of blue skies [6]. - In the first half of the year, the proportion of days with good air quality reached 71.8%, an increase of 2% year-on-year, while the average PM2.5 concentration decreased by 5.6% to 48.9 micrograms per cubic meter [6]. - Innovative measures, such as the "green construction site" emergency management mechanism, have been introduced to improve dust control and promote efficient construction alongside air pollution prevention [6]. Industrial Upgrades and Economic Growth - Xiangyang is leveraging ecological value to drive industrial transformation, with a focus on recycling and the circular economy [7]. - The recycling of waste aluminum has become a significant industry, with the local circular economy industrial park projected to achieve an industrial output value exceeding 20 billion yuan in 2024 [7]. Rural Development and Ecological Transformation - The article also discusses the successful green transformation in rural areas, exemplified by Yanhe Village, which has shifted from resource depletion to sustainable development through eco-friendly practices [9]. - The village has developed into a national 4A-level tourist attraction, significantly increasing its collective assets and annual visitor numbers [9]. Conclusion - Xiangyang's ecological civilization reforms are seen as essential for solving problems, promoting development, and improving people's livelihoods, creating a harmonious environment that supports both ecological and economic growth [9].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Recycling Metal Industry High-Quality Development Summit was held in Fengcheng, Jiangxi, where the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Recycling Metal Branch released the list of the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises for 2024 [1] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises is set at 4.144 billion yuan, with 17 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of the total [1] - The total revenue of the top 30 enterprises reached 392.895 billion yuan, with the top 20 enterprises' total revenue increasing to 333.135 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 30 enterprises, 11 recycling copper companies generated a combined revenue of 157.609 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the total [1] - Six recycling aluminum companies reported a total revenue of 60.596 billion yuan, making up 15% of the total [1] - Four recycling lead companies achieved a combined revenue of 36.219 billion yuan, representing 10% of the total [1] - Nine multi-metal recycling enterprises (with two or more varieties) generated a total revenue of 138.471 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of the total [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ming Tai Aluminum (601677.SH), confirmed that its recycled aluminum subsidy policy remains unchanged and will continue to receive relevant policy support [1] Group 1 - The company reported a good order situation for the third quarter, with a production scheduling cycle of approximately 1.5 months [1] - The company plans to release its production and sales operational report for the first three quarters in early October, urging stakeholders to pay attention to the company's announcements [1] - The company's subsidiary, Hong Sheng New Materials, is constructing high-end heat treatment equipment, which is expected to be operational in October, and has completed part of the customer reserve work to gradually release production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's half-year report for 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by strong performance in the aviation sector and international expansion efforts [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.625 billion yuan, up 19.95% year-on-year [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.611 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.04% [3] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 465 million yuan (including tax) [4][23]. Growth Drivers - Increased production and sales of alumina in Indonesia, along with higher overseas alumina prices and rising average aluminum ingot prices, contributed to revenue and profit growth [5]. International Expansion - Nanshan Aluminum International successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 25, 2025, raising over 2 billion HKD for the expansion of its alumina production base in Indonesia [6]. Production Capacity and Technology - The alumina project in Indonesia has achieved significant production capacity, with 2 million tons currently operational and plans for an additional 1 million tons [9]. - The company is also investing in a 20,000-ton caustic soda and 16,500-ton epoxy chloropropane project in Indonesia [10]. Sustainability Initiatives - Nanshan Aluminum is investing in high-quality recycled aluminum projects to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [11][13]. - The company has received various ESG awards and improved its MSCI ESG rating to "BBB" [11][27]. Aviation and Automotive Sectors - Nanshan Aluminum is a key supplier for major aircraft manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, and is involved in the production of critical components for the C919 aircraft [15]. - The company maintains strong partnerships with leading automotive brands, ensuring stable growth in the automotive aluminum market [17]. Industry Positioning - Nanshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum processing industry chain, focusing on high-value-added products such as automotive and aviation aluminum [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation New Materials (600361) reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with total revenue increasing slightly but a significant decline in net profit, indicating potential challenges in profitability and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 39.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.05% compared to 38.733 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 355 million yuan, down 38.69% from 578 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - The second quarter saw total revenue of 19.977 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, and net profit of 148 million yuan, down 50.21% [1]. - Gross margin was 3.04%, a decline of 18.88% from 3.75% in the previous year, while net margin fell to 0.89%, down 39.87% [1]. - Total receivables accounted for 356.59% of net profit, indicating a high level of accounts receivable relative to profitability [1][4]. Cash Flow and Debt - The company has a healthy cash position, with cash assets significantly exceeding current liabilities [2]. - The ratio of cash assets to current liabilities is 56.37%, and the average operating cash flow over the past three years relative to current liabilities is 4.62% [3]. - The interest-bearing debt ratio reached 40.53%, with total interest-bearing debt amounting to 10.942 billion yuan, a 14.33% increase from the previous year [3]. Business Model and Strategy - The company's performance is primarily driven by capital expenditures, necessitating careful evaluation of the profitability of these investments [2]. - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, with plans to invest up to 209 million USD in the "Saudi Red Sea Aluminum Industry Chain Comprehensive Project," which aims to produce 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and high-precision aluminum products annually [4]. - The company has increased its focus on high-end products, with sales of profile products rising by 43.93% year-on-year to 77,200 tons, and aluminum rod and cable products increasing by 13.83% to 501,300 tons [4]. Research and Innovation - The company has intensified its R&D efforts, adding 38 new patents during the reporting period, including 4 invention patents [5]. - It has established itself as a leading player in the aluminum alloy cable materials sector, participating in national standards formulation and securing significant contracts for high-voltage transmission projects [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recycled aluminum industry is becoming a key area for global green transformation, with the global recycled aluminum market expected to reach $54.8 billion in 2024 and exceed $112.5 billion by 2034, growing at an annual rate of 7.5% [1]. Market Overview - The global recycled aluminum market is projected to grow from $54.8 billion in 2024 to $58.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [5]. - The demand for recycled aluminum is primarily driven by the lightweighting in transportation and green infrastructure, contributing 26% to global demand growth [6]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is enhancing the planning of the recycled resource recovery system, aiming to establish a comprehensive recycling infrastructure by 2025, with a target of over 450 million tons of annual utilization of nine major categories of recycled resources [5]. - The EU has initiated monitoring of waste metal trade to address the crisis of strategic raw material outflow, covering 40% of the total trade volume of circular economy materials [11]. Trade Dynamics - The global waste aluminum trade is undergoing a structural reorganization, with Thailand emerging as the largest buyer of U.S. waste aluminum, and Southeast Asia becoming a new hub for recycling and processing [8][11]. - The shift from a cost-arbitrage driven model to a regional collaboration model is evident, as China transitions from a net importer to a dominant player in internal circulation [10]. Historical Context - China's waste aluminum import peaked at 1.2 million tons in 2004, but by 2018, imports had plummeted to 157,000 tons due to stricter quality standards and a focus on domestic recycling [7]. - The domestic recycling rate of waste aluminum has increased significantly, with a recovery volume surpassing 9 million tons in 2020, and the share of recycled aluminum in raw material supply rising from less than 40% to over 80% [7]. Future Outlook - By 2025, China's recycled aluminum production is targeted to reach 11.5 million tons, a 54% increase from 7.45 million tons in 2020, with domestic waste aluminum recovery expected to rise to 11.06 million tons by 2024 [15]. - The ongoing demand surge in Southeast Asia, coupled with resource protection policies in Europe and the U.S., is likely to constrain waste aluminum imports, maintaining strong prices for recycled aluminum [15].

Summary of Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ming Tai Aluminum Industry - **Date**: August 26, 2025 Key Points Industry and Business Focus - Ming Tai Aluminum is focusing on high-end manufacturing and low-carbon recycling, promoting aluminum-plastic films and aluminum foils for solid-state battery packaging [2][5] - Strategic cooperation with Penghui Energy has been established, and water-cooled plate brazing materials are being used in power batteries and energy storage detection systems [2][6] - The company is also supplying materials indirectly to NVIDIA, with advancements in its intelligent computing business [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 780,000 tons and a net profit of 940 million yuan, with a net profit per ton of approximately 1,200 yuan [4] - Despite a slight year-on-year decline, profit growth is significant when excluding last year's inventory gains due to rising aluminum prices [4][10] - The company expects a 10% increase in net profit for the full year, driven by improved product structure [4] Product Development and Market Demand - The company aims to increase the proportion of products with processing fees above 6,000 yuan per ton from 20% to 40% [11] - Demand for new energy and transportation products is strong, primarily driven by the automotive and electronics sectors [11][31] - The introduction of new products is expected to positively impact overall sales [25] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Ming Tai Aluminum plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 10% to 30% over the next three years, with an estimated annual net profit of around 2 billion yuan, allowing for approximately 600 million yuan in dividends [8][29] - The company guarantees a minimum net profit growth of 10%, leading to an expected annual investment return of no less than 13% [8][30] Strategic Investments and Restructuring - The company holds a 2.5% stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum, with an initial investment of 400 million yuan, now valued at 800 million yuan [9] - Following a restructuring, Ming Tai Aluminum will acquire 150 million shares of Jiaozuo Wanfang, with expected market sale returns of two to three times [9] Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company is introducing new equipment to enhance the efficiency of aluminum recycling and expand the sources of scrap aluminum [2][26] - The production capacity of the new materials division is currently low, with expectations for small-scale trial production in the fourth quarter of 2025 [13] Market Trends and Pricing - The company anticipates stable aluminum prices, with no significant fluctuations expected in the coming years due to market conditions [33] - The adjustment of export tax rebates has affected low-value-added products, leading to a shift in pricing strategies [19] Customer Relationships and Supply Chain - Major customers for battery shell products include Ningde Times, with supply expected to increase following successful validation [22] - The company is actively engaging with clients for its new aluminum column robot business, aiming for significant deployment in smart factories [24] Future Outlook - The company projects overall sales of 1.62 million tons for 2025, with a slight increase expected in the second half of the year [17][16] - The focus on high-value-added products is expected to enhance profit margins, with plans to increase the proportion of such products to around 40% [12] Conclusion - Ming Tai Aluminum is strategically positioned for growth in the high-end manufacturing sector, with a strong focus on new energy applications and a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends and profit growth. The company is also adapting to market changes and customer needs, ensuring a robust outlook for the future.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]