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棉花:关注下游需求和商业库存
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, analyzing its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength. It shows that the domestic cotton spot market is mostly quiet with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the cotton textile market remains sluggish [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%, and its overnight session closed at 13,565 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.33%. CY2509 closed at 19,905 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.04%, and its overnight session closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.23%. ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.78 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.33% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 322,455 lots, an increase of 80,295 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 811,996 lots, an increase of 35,530 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,806 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,344 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,419, a decrease of 74, and the effective forecast was 300, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 2 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,866 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of Nanjjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The price of cotton in Shandong was 14,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The price of cotton in Hebei was 14,764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.73 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 60 yuan compared to the previous day, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The domestic cotton spot trading is mostly quiet, with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall basis remains stable. Different regions have different basis quotes for cotton sales [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure cotton yarn market has little change, with light trading. High prices continue to fall, and the mainstream prices remain stable. The willingness of spinning mills to sell at discounted prices has decreased. The all-cotton cloth market remains light, with most weaving factories mainly receiving small and scattered orders and reducing production. The transaction price of grey cloth is negotiated according to the order volume, and most weaving factories focus on optimizing cash flow [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE Cotton futures rose and then fell. The July contract increased significantly due to entering the delivery notice day, and excessive rainfall in the Mississippi River Delta region may be unfavorable to cotton growth. The December contract once rebounded to 68.4 cents/pound but then fell back due to profit-taking, closing at 67.78 cents/pound [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The cotton trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5].