1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The overall view on cotton is moderately bullish. The report indicates that the fundamentals, basis, market trends, and main positions all show positive signals. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided on the previous day's review in the given report. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,814, and the basis is 1,284 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the ending inventory in the 25/26 season in March is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bullish, the net long positions are increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - **Expectations**: Textile exports were good from January to February. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have improved. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is in the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26, production has generally increased, and consumption has remained relatively stable. The ending inventory in 2025/26 is 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [9][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2026/27 season, production is expected to decrease by 4% to 24.8 million tons, mainly due to declines in Brazil and the US; consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 25 million tons; the ending inventory is expected to decrease by 1% to 16.6 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 66.4%; the global cotton trade volume is expected to decrease by 2.2% to 9.6 million tons; the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 822 kg/ha; the planting area is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 30.2 million hectares [11]. - **China's Cotton Data**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, production is expected to increase from 5.62 million tons to 6.64 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons, consumption is expected to be 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided on position data in the given report.

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The high basis in the domestic cotton market during the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, along with issues in the cotton futures warehouse receipt structure [1][7][20]. - If the supply of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant than in the 2024/25 crop year, the overall basis trend in 2025/26 may be weaker than in 2024/25. Special attention should be paid to the basis downward pressure during the peak new - cotton listing period from November to December, and the basis may have difficulty replicating the strong upward trend from March to August 2025 after March 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Reasons for the "High Basis" of Domestic Cotton in the 2024/25 Crop Year - The basis of domestic cotton in the 2024/25 crop year remained at a high level throughout the year, especially from April to August 2025, which was the highest in the past 10 years [5]. - The fundamental reasons for the high basis were unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories. The strong demand was due to the expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, relatively low cotton prices, reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn, and increased "hoarding" demand, which led to concerns about tight inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year and pushed up the basis [7]. - The high basis was also related to the structure of cotton futures warehouse receipts. The increase in the proportion of inland warehouse receipts, the rise in the proportion of low - quality warehouse receipts such as those from Hami, and the high proportion of high - premium warehouse receipts all contributed to the strengthening of the basis [10]. 2. Outlook for the Domestic Cotton Basis Trend in the 2025/26 Crop Year - In terms of supply, the basis may be under pressure from November to December due to the listing of new cotton. If the new cotton is listed early and processed quickly, the basis will be under pressure; if the processing is slow, the basis may strengthen unexpectedly in October. Also, if the seed cotton price is lower than expected, the basis may first be firm and then weaken [14][15]. - Regarding demand, if the trade demand is weak at the beginning of the new - cotton listing and the domestic cotton demand in the 2025/26 crop year continues to fall short of expectations, the basis may weaken. The price is the main factor affecting demand. Lower prices can stimulate demand, and if the futures or spot prices are significantly lower than the new - cotton cost, it will support the basis [17]. - The changes in cotton commercial inventories and futures warehouse receipts also affect the basis. If the commercial inventory increases year - on - year and the month - on - month decline is slow after March 2026, the basis may weaken. The situation of futures warehouse receipts, including quantity and structure, also needs to be monitored [19]. 3. Summary - The high basis in the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, as well as the large - scale registration of warehouse receipts from Hami and high - index cotton, and the "arbitrage" of Xinjiang cotton to inland warehouses [20]. - If the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant, the overall basis trend may be weaker. Attention should be paid to the procurement enthusiasm of spinning mills and traders at the beginning of the listing, the profit and operating rate of spinning mills, and the commercial inventory and warehouse receipt situation [21].

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, analyzing its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength. It shows that the domestic cotton spot market is mostly quiet with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the cotton textile market remains sluggish [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%, and its overnight session closed at 13,565 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.33%. CY2509 closed at 19,905 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.04%, and its overnight session closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.23%. ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.78 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.33% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 322,455 lots, an increase of 80,295 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 811,996 lots, an increase of 35,530 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,806 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,344 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,419, a decrease of 74, and the effective forecast was 300, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 2 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,866 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of Nanjjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The price of cotton in Shandong was 14,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The price of cotton in Hebei was 14,764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.73 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 60 yuan compared to the previous day, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The domestic cotton spot trading is mostly quiet, with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall basis remains stable. Different regions have different basis quotes for cotton sales [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure cotton yarn market has little change, with light trading. High prices continue to fall, and the mainstream prices remain stable. The willingness of spinning mills to sell at discounted prices has decreased. The all-cotton cloth market remains light, with most weaving factories mainly receiving small and scattered orders and reducing production. The transaction price of grey cloth is negotiated according to the order volume, and most weaving factories focus on optimizing cash flow [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE Cotton futures rose and then fell. The July contract increased significantly due to entering the delivery notice day, and excessive rainfall in the Mississippi River Delta region may be unfavorable to cotton growth. The December contract once rebounded to 68.4 cents/pound but then fell back due to profit-taking, closing at 67.78 cents/pound [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The cotton trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton lacks fundamental upward drivers and is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or significant changes in US trade agreements [4][16] - Domestic cotton futures follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories drive the basis stronger, but if the downstream business situation deteriorates, the de - stocking momentum may slow, and the basis may not continue to rise. Cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [1][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 65.16, reached a high of 66.70, a low of 64.71, and closed at 65.58, up 0.49 (0.75%). The trading volume was 131,983 lots, an increase of 48,661 lots, and the open interest was 111,792 lots, an increase of 543 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 13,305, reached a high of 13,395, a low of 13,200, and closed at 13,360, up 85 (0.64%). The trading volume was 678,385 lots, a decrease of 189,744 lots, and the open interest was 530,650 lots, a decrease of 15,282 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 19,555, reached a high of 19,690, a low of 19,415, and closed at 19,630, up 105 (0.54%). The trading volume was 19,681 lots, a decrease of 14,623 lots, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 7,506 lots [4] 2. 基本面 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE cotton trend**: This week, it fluctuated within a narrow range with a weak overall trend. It once rebounded by over 2% on Monday due to a weaker US dollar and a sharp rise in crude oil prices but failed to sustain the upward momentum. Favorable weather in US cotton - growing areas is conducive to catching up with the sowing progress, causing it to fall again [4] - **US cotton weekly export sales data**: As of the week ending May 29, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 24,900 tons, a 7% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 303,200 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 71,700 tons, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 1% increase from the four - week average [5] - **Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries**: - India: Sowing in northern India is going smoothly. The domestic market price shows a differentiated trend. About 80% - 85% of the estimated sowing area in northern India has been completed, and it is expected to finish all sowing by June 10 [6] - Brazil: The domestic textile industry has grown. The 2025 season's lint output in Mato Grosso is expected to reach a record high of 2.76 million tons. From January to April 2025, Brazilian textile production increased by 13.7% year - on - year, and the industry added 8,000 jobs [6] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is low. The sowing progress in Sindh is far behind last year. The national cotton planting area is expected to reach 95% of last year's, with a preliminary estimated output of 6.5 - 7.5 million bales. The domestic market trading has slowed down, and import demand remains low [7] - Bangladesh: There are some positive news in energy and government budgets. Due to the approaching Eid al - Fitr holiday, textile enterprises' procurement pace has slowed down. The energy supply problem of textile enterprises may be alleviated, and the government has announced the next fiscal year's budget [8] - Australia: The 2024/25 lint output forecast has been raised to 1.2 million tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous forecast and about a 12% increase from the 2023/24 season [9] - **Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates**: As of the week ending June 6, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 74%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 33.5% [9] 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Zhengzhou cotton futures and basis**: From May 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first fell and then rose. The spot trading was relatively light, but there were large local trading volumes. Some textile enterprises and traders continued to lock in cotton spot purchases. The cotton spot sales basis showed a stable - to - strong trend [10] - **Cotton warehouse receipts**: As of June 6, there were 10,870 registered warehouse receipts and 371 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,241 receipts, equivalent to 472,122 tons [10] - **Downstream market**: - Cotton yarn market: The market continued to be weak, with light trading. Weaving yarn performed better than knitting yarn. Cotton yarn prices continued to decline slightly, and spinning enterprises' profits continued to deteriorate. Spinning enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the startup rate decreased [11] - Cotton fabric market: The off - season atmosphere continued. After the Dragon Boat Festival, weavers' production enthusiasm was low, and production was controlled. The startup rate continued to decline, and subsequent orders were weak, with inventory rising [11] 3. 基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis in the text [13][14][15] 4. 操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new factors. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the stability of cotton demand is based on low cotton prices [16]