Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, analyzing its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength. It shows that the domestic cotton spot market is mostly quiet with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the cotton textile market remains sluggish [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%, and its overnight session closed at 13,565 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.33%. CY2509 closed at 19,905 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.04%, and its overnight session closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a decline of -0.23%. ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.78 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.33% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 322,455 lots, an increase of 80,295 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 811,996 lots, an increase of 35,530 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,806 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,344 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,419, a decrease of 74, and the effective forecast was 300, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 2 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,866 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of Nanjjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The price of cotton in Shandong was 14,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The price of cotton in Hebei was 14,764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.73 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 60 yuan compared to the previous day, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The domestic cotton spot trading is mostly quiet, with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall basis remains stable. Different regions have different basis quotes for cotton sales [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure cotton yarn market has little change, with light trading. High prices continue to fall, and the mainstream prices remain stable. The willingness of spinning mills to sell at discounted prices has decreased. The all-cotton cloth market remains light, with most weaving factories mainly receiving small and scattered orders and reducing production. The transaction price of grey cloth is negotiated according to the order volume, and most weaving factories focus on optimizing cash flow [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE Cotton futures rose and then fell. The July contract increased significantly due to entering the delivery notice day, and excessive rainfall in the Mississippi River Delta region may be unfavorable to cotton growth. The December contract once rebounded to 68.4 cents/pound but then fell back due to profit-taking, closing at 67.78 cents/pound [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The cotton trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton lacks fundamental upward drivers and is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or significant changes in US trade agreements [4][16] - Domestic cotton futures follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories drive the basis stronger, but if the downstream business situation deteriorates, the de - stocking momentum may slow, and the basis may not continue to rise. Cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [1][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 65.16, reached a high of 66.70, a low of 64.71, and closed at 65.58, up 0.49 (0.75%). The trading volume was 131,983 lots, an increase of 48,661 lots, and the open interest was 111,792 lots, an increase of 543 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 13,305, reached a high of 13,395, a low of 13,200, and closed at 13,360, up 85 (0.64%). The trading volume was 678,385 lots, a decrease of 189,744 lots, and the open interest was 530,650 lots, a decrease of 15,282 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 19,555, reached a high of 19,690, a low of 19,415, and closed at 19,630, up 105 (0.54%). The trading volume was 19,681 lots, a decrease of 14,623 lots, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 7,506 lots [4] 2. 基本面 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE cotton trend**: This week, it fluctuated within a narrow range with a weak overall trend. It once rebounded by over 2% on Monday due to a weaker US dollar and a sharp rise in crude oil prices but failed to sustain the upward momentum. Favorable weather in US cotton - growing areas is conducive to catching up with the sowing progress, causing it to fall again [4] - **US cotton weekly export sales data**: As of the week ending May 29, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 24,900 tons, a 7% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 303,200 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 71,700 tons, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 1% increase from the four - week average [5] - **Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries**: - India: Sowing in northern India is going smoothly. The domestic market price shows a differentiated trend. About 80% - 85% of the estimated sowing area in northern India has been completed, and it is expected to finish all sowing by June 10 [6] - Brazil: The domestic textile industry has grown. The 2025 season's lint output in Mato Grosso is expected to reach a record high of 2.76 million tons. From January to April 2025, Brazilian textile production increased by 13.7% year - on - year, and the industry added 8,000 jobs [6] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is low. The sowing progress in Sindh is far behind last year. The national cotton planting area is expected to reach 95% of last year's, with a preliminary estimated output of 6.5 - 7.5 million bales. The domestic market trading has slowed down, and import demand remains low [7] - Bangladesh: There are some positive news in energy and government budgets. Due to the approaching Eid al - Fitr holiday, textile enterprises' procurement pace has slowed down. The energy supply problem of textile enterprises may be alleviated, and the government has announced the next fiscal year's budget [8] - Australia: The 2024/25 lint output forecast has been raised to 1.2 million tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous forecast and about a 12% increase from the 2023/24 season [9] - **Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates**: As of the week ending June 6, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 74%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 33.5% [9] 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Zhengzhou cotton futures and basis**: From May 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first fell and then rose. The spot trading was relatively light, but there were large local trading volumes. Some textile enterprises and traders continued to lock in cotton spot purchases. The cotton spot sales basis showed a stable - to - strong trend [10] - **Cotton warehouse receipts**: As of June 6, there were 10,870 registered warehouse receipts and 371 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,241 receipts, equivalent to 472,122 tons [10] - **Downstream market**: - Cotton yarn market: The market continued to be weak, with light trading. Weaving yarn performed better than knitting yarn. Cotton yarn prices continued to decline slightly, and spinning enterprises' profits continued to deteriorate. Spinning enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the startup rate decreased [11] - Cotton fabric market: The off - season atmosphere continued. After the Dragon Boat Festival, weavers' production enthusiasm was low, and production was controlled. The startup rate continued to decline, and subsequent orders were weak, with inventory rising [11] 3. 基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis in the text [13][14][15] 4. 操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new factors. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the stability of cotton demand is based on low cotton prices [16]