全球金融业ETF (IXG)

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美银Hartnett:市场正预期特朗普转向“降关税、降利率、降税收”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-04 10:37
Group 1 - The global stock market experienced a remarkable "V-shaped" rebound in April, with the S&P 500 rising for nine consecutive days, marking the longest streak since November 2004 [1] - Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Hartnett noted that this trend indicates investor expectations for Trump to shift towards a "three lows" policy: lowering tariffs, interest rates, and taxes [1] - Concerns about a U.S. economic recession have eased, as the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by 70 basis points since Trump took office, oil prices have fallen by 20%, and the dollar has depreciated by 9%, contributing to looser financial conditions [1] Group 2 - The second quarter is not expected to see a recession, as Hartnett pointed out that as long as employment data does not collapse, market sentiment can remain relatively stable [2] - Key indicators such as the global financial sector ETF (IXG) breaking above $105 suggest that a recession in the second quarter is unlikely [2] - Oil prices remain the only asset indicating a potential recession or slowdown, having dropped 56% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began and 17% since April 2 [2] Group 3 - Hartnett recommends "going long" in international markets, as concerns about a global recession fade, oil prices are expected to reverse significantly, benefiting oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe [3] - Additionally, he suggests investing in bonds and gold, forming a "BIG" investment portfolio [3]