Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34% [1] - Most large tech stocks fell, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, while Google rose 0.22% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Xiaoying Technology up over 16%, XPeng Motors up more than 11%, Manbang Group up over 10%, NIO up over 9%, and Tiger Brokers up over 6% [1] - However, Zhengye Technology fell approximately 30%, Yipeng Energy dropped over 23%, Canadian Solar down over 18%, Hesai Technology down about 11%, and Century Interconnect down over 8% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.02% at 24280.64 points, France's CAC40 down 0.47% at 7935.2 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23% at 9309.2 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3383.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.87% at $38.1 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 1.23% to $63.48 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract increased 1.14% to $67.60 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 17 basis points to 7.1833 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.19 basis points to 3.781%, the 3-year yield up 3.92 basis points to 3.736%, the 5-year yield up 3.49 basis points to 3.841%, the 10-year yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%, and the 30-year yield up 2.14 basis points to 4.908% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 5.7 basis points to 4.727%, France's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.460%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.9 basis points to 2.755%, Italy's 10-year yield up 5.5 basis points to 3.578%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.342% [1]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq down 1.46% [1] - Major US tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down over 3%, META down over 2%, and Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with Xunlei down over 10%, Weibo down over 6%, and New Oriental, iQIYI, and Miniso down over 2% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.45%, France's CAC40 index up 1.22%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.34% [1] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.57% at $3358.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.84% at $37.33 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract fell 1.12% to $62.00 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.95% to $65.97 per barrel [1] Currency and Bonds - The US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 4 basis points to 7.1882 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 1.69 basis points to 3.738% and the 10-year yield down 2.54 basis points to 4.306% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield up 0.3 basis points to 4.738%, while the German 10-year yield fell 1.3 basis points to 2.747% [1]

随着通胀数据降温，市场对美联储大幅降息的预期急剧升温，华尔街机构正重新调整布局，迎接可能的货币政策转向。 降息预期关键变化 • 利率期货定价：9月降息概率升至75% • 债券市场反应：2年期美债收益率单周跌25BP • 机构预测调整：高盛预计年内降息幅度扩至100BP 科技股加仓：纳指ETF获创纪录资金流入 债券久期拉长：增持10年期以上美债 汇率对冲：押注美元指数跌破100关口 潜在风险警示 若通胀反弹恐引发剧烈波动 市场已过度定价降息预期 银行业净息差面临进一步挤压 结语 这场降息狂欢既是对经济放缓的防御，也是流动性盛宴的预演。投资者需警惕：美联储政策路径，永远比市场预期更曲折。 华尔街布局调整 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq up 0.14% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Microsoft down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Nvidia down 0.88%, Google down 0.68%, Tesla down 0.47%, while Amazon and Apple both rose over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Newegg up over 24%, Linklogis up more than 18%, Pony.ai up over 7%, Futu Holdings up over 6%, and BeiGene up over 6%. In contrast, Genetron Holdings fell over 8%, and Global Data fell more than 6% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.67%, France's CAC40 up 0.66%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.19% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.24% at $3407.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.44% at $38.55 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 0.68% to $62.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel [1] - London base metals all fell, with LME lead down 1.36% at $1988.00 per ton, LME zinc down 1.26% at $2811.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.65% at $9777.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 5.84 basis points to 3.668%, the 3-year yield down 6.94 basis points to 3.633%, the 5-year yield down 6.78 basis points to 3.756%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%, and the 30-year yield down 5.74 basis points to 4.824% [1] - European bond yields also fell collectively, with the UK 10-year yield down 3.6 basis points to 4.587%, France's 10-year yield down 7.4 basis points to 3.333%, Germany's 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points to 2.677%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 3.448%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points to 3.229% [1]

Economic Indicators - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated an openness to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September[4] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected[4] - The total US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,681.90, up 1.39%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,458.61, up 1.10%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,445.76, up 1.13%[5] Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil was $66.71, up 0.18%[5] - The spot price of gold was $3,347.64, up 0.18%[5] - Bitcoin futures on CME closed at $119,230.00, up 1.95%[5] Regional Market Insights - Hong Kong's capital market saw a new IPO fundraising total increase of over six times year-on-year in the first seven months of this year[4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,969.68, up 0.25%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,665.92, up 0.50%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US stock market, highlighting the impact of employment data and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift from "recession trading" to "rate cut trading" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - In early August, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, while by August 4, it had risen by 1.47%, indicating a significant market reversal [6]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop of 2.24% on August 1, followed by a recovery of 1.95% by August 4 [6]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 25.5 basis points initially, then only by 2.7 basis points, reflecting changing investor sentiment [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article explains the concepts of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading," noting that they are responses to economic data but in opposite directions [7][9]. - Rate cut trading occurs when the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which generally supports risk assets, while recession trading happens during economic downturns, negatively impacting risk assets [10]. Group 3: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The article reviews three historical rate cut cycles since 2000, noting that each was initiated during economic difficulties [14][16]. - The first cycle (2001-2003) saw a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points, with the S&P 500 dropping 26.19% during the rate cut period [21][22]. - The second cycle (2007-2008) involved a 500 basis point cut, with the S&P 500 declining 38.72% during the rate cut period [26]. - The third cycle (2019-2020) was different as it began without a significant recession, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to further cuts [27][29]. Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed a significant downward revision, with July's non-farm payrolls at 73,000, well below expectations [39]. - The downward revision reflects a cooling job market, potentially influenced by tariff policies affecting hiring [40][41]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment may not indicate a severe recession, which could mitigate risks for equity assets [45][47]. Group 5: Asset Performance Expectations - The article outlines expected asset performance during the current and past rate cut cycles, noting that equities typically decline during rapid rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges [33]. - Fixed income assets like US Treasuries generally perform well during rate cuts, while gold tends to rise due to its safe-haven status [34][35]. - The current environment suggests that while equities may face some pressure, the absence of a significant global crisis could provide some support [47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bond auction, which is seen as a troubling indicator for the bond market [1][2] - The 30-year bond auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27, the lowest since November 2023, indicating weak investor interest [1] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, was at 59.5%, the lowest since May, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was 23.03%, significantly below previous averages [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, marking a continuous increase for three days, while the 2-year yield reached 3.73% [1] - The auction results suggest that if the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, begins to cut interest rates, there could be a sharp revaluation of inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [2] - Recent labor market data indicates an increase in initial jobless claims to 226,000, slightly above expectations, and a rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a challenging job market [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with the likelihood of more than two cuts this year being higher [1] - South Africa's trade and foreign affairs department warns that the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on South African goods could severely impact the economy, potentially leading to the loss of approximately 30,000 jobs [2] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes reveal that some members are considering the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes once trade issues stabilize [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 585.06 points, closing at 44,173.64, an increase of 1.34% [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.85% to $3,428.60 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.40% to $37.45 per ounce [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.70 basis points to 3.671%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The disappointing employment report has reignited market bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates as early as next month, leading to a significant drop in short-term Treasury yields [1][4][8]. Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [8]. - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has fallen to 35,000, the lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [8]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data, the two-year Treasury yield plummeted by 27.7 basis points to 3.674%, marking the largest single-day drop in a year [3][8]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, further contributing to the decline in Treasury yields [1]. Interest Rate Expectations - Traders have fully priced in the expectation of two rate cuts within the year, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting [4][6]. - CreditSights strategists now anticipate a 50 basis point cut in September, followed by two additional 25 basis point cuts by December, a significant shift from previous expectations of no cuts until 2026 [9]. Economic Commentary - Market analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may be lagging behind the labor market situation, especially in light of recent tariff measures impacting inflation expectations [9]. - Some experts caution that a single employment report may not be sufficient to alter the Fed's established course, as additional economic data will be available before the next meeting [10].

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]