证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251116 11 月非农料为美联储 12 月降息的关键变量 2025 年 11 月 16 日 ◼ 海外政治：美国联邦政府结束停摆，经济数据恢复发布料影响 12 月 FOMC 决议。美东时间 11 月 12 日，美国众议院表决通过了一项临时 拨款法案，为政府机构提供运作资金至 2026 年 1 月 30 日。随后特朗普 于白宫正式签署该法案，标志着为期 43 天的美国史上最长政府停摆正 式结束。一方面，本次政府停摆带来的紧财政与紧流动性效果料给美国 经济带来"先抑后扬"的影响。近期 CBO 的测算数据显示，为期 6 周 的政府停摆将对 25Q4 和 26Q1 美国实际 GDP 带来-1.5%和+2.2%的影响 效果（见图 18）。另一方面，随着联邦政府恢复运作，许多重要的经济 数据将重新恢复发布，其中 11 月 20 日 BLS 将发布 9 月非农就业数据； 11 月 26 日 BEA 将发布 25Q3 美国 GDP 修正值。但根据白宫新闻秘书 莱维特和白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特的消息，10 月非农可能只公 布就业岗位的部分数据而无法公布失业率数据，10 月 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury issued $42 billion in 10-year bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, indicating stable demand despite a slight decrease from the previous auction [1][2] - The 10-year bond yield closed at 4.0713%, down 4.47 basis points, while the 2-year bond yield fell to 3.5659%, down 2.49 basis points [1] - The Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data [1] Group 1 - The 10-year bond auction yield was 4.074%, slightly above the pre-auction level of 4.068% but lower than the previous auction's yield of 4.117% [2] - The indirect bid ratio, reflecting foreign demand, was 67.0%, slightly up from 66.8% in the last auction, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was 22.6%, down from 24.1% [2] - Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the department is prepared to adjust bond issuance based on investor demand to avoid market disruption [2] Group 2 - The Treasury is closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for specific U.S. government bonds and will adjust issuance accordingly [2] - The stablecoin market is expected to grow tenfold over the next decade, potentially increasing demand for short-term bonds [2]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.68% at 48,254.82 points, the S&P 500 up 0.06% at 6,850.92 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.26% at 23,406.46 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with AMD rising 9%, while Oracle and Tesla fell over 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with XPeng, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu dropping over 2%, and Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com falling over 1% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 1.22% at 24,381.46 points, France's CAC40 up 1.04% at 8,241.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.12% at 9,911.42 points [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped 3.74% to $62.72 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.07% at $4,201.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.90% at $53.23 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals increased, with LME tin up 2.15% at $37,405.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.38% at $2,092.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.65% at $10,897.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 1.67 basis points at 3.568%, the 3-year yield up 2.39 basis points at 3.558%, and the 5-year yield up 1.04 basis points at 3.672%, while the 10-year yield remained flat at 4.067% and the 30-year yield fell 0.29 basis points to 4.665% [1] - European bond yields mostly declined, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points at 4.397%, while France's 10-year yield fell 4.7 basis points to 3.375%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.642%, Italy's down 2.9 basis points to 3.369%, and Spain's down 2.4 basis points to 3.138% [1]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising within 0.5 basis points, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.11% at 116.51, while the 10-year main contract slightly increased by 0.01% to 108.68 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds rose slightly, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.866% [2]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's 182-day financial bond had a winning bid rate of 1.5074%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 3.6 [3]. - The 3-year fixed-rate bond from the same bank had a winning bid rate of 1.6385%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 2.95 [3]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 3.46 basis points to 3.574% [4]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 1.665% [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 783 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates collectively declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.316% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the "asset shortage" logic may weaken next year, with fundamental factors regaining importance, indicating a market characterized by "low rates + high volatility" [7]. - CITIC Securities anticipates limited upward risk for bond yields, emphasizing the necessity of creating a suitable interest rate environment to support fiscal supply [8].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.09%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.61% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Amazon rising over 9%, Tesla up over 4%, and Netflix up over 2%. In contrast, Meta fell over 2%, and Microsoft dropped over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks had varied performances, with NIO up over 3%, Xpeng up over 2%, and iQIYI up nearly 2%. Alibaba fell over 2%, and JD.com dropped nearly 1% [1] - European major stock indices all declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.44%, Germany's DAX down 0.67%, and France's CAC40 down 0.44% [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.51%, closing at $60.88 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 0.33%, closing at $64.58 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.06% at $4013.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.75% at $48.25 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals saw increases, with LME tin up 1.08% at $36,180.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.86% at $2,888.00 per ton, and LME zinc up 0.41% at $3,050.00 per ton. LME copper, however, fell 0.23% to $10,891.50 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 3.46 basis points at 3.574%, the 3-year yield down 2.80 basis points at 3.581%, the 5-year yield down 2.07 basis points at 3.694%, the 10-year yield down 1.37 basis points at 4.083%, and the 30-year yield down 0.38 basis points at 4.651% [1] - European bond yields mostly decreased, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points at 4.408%, France's 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points at 3.420%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 2.631%, Italy's 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points at 3.381%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 3.140% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as expected and ended the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, marking the end of the quantitative tightening phase. The policy has entered a new transition stage of "stop easing → observe and evaluate", with the future interest - rate path becoming more uncertain [2][3]. - After the resolution, the market re - priced interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts behind the end of balance - sheet reduction. If macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the market's trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious [4]. 3. Section Summaries FOMC Meeting Results - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, with internal differences on interest - rate decisions, indicating increased uncertainty about the future interest - rate path [2][3]. - Powell emphasized that whether to cut interest rates in December depends on data, and the policy orientation has shifted to stronger data dependence. There are upward short - term inflation disturbances from tariffs, but they are expected to be temporary [3]. - The Fed has not determined the details of the balance - sheet duration structure adjustment but will gradually tilt towards short - duration allocation [3]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's decision, the market initially had a mild reaction, but then quickly re - priced due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7bp to 4.06%, the 2 - year yield rose by over 10bp, U.S. stocks fell, gold declined, emerging - market currencies were under pressure, and Bitcoin significantly corrected [4]. - The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts, and if macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, and interest - rate fluctuations and cross - asset misalignment will remain highly elastic [4]. Economic Data Forecast (SEP Outlook) - Forecasts for real GDP, unemployment rate, PCE, core PCE, and interest rates from 2025 - 2028 are provided, and compared with June's predictions, showing changes in economic data expectations [30].

Group 1 - The IMF projects that the U.S. government debt will exceed 143.4% of GDP by 2030, increasing by over 20 percentage points from current levels [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen praised Japan's expansionary fiscal policy during a meeting with Japan's Finance Minister, although no discussions on monetary policy details took place [1] - The negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. regarding a $350 billion investment project are currently stalled, with key issues such as investment methods, amounts, and timelines still under dispute [2] Group 2 - Argentina's ruling coalition led by President Milei won the midterm elections, alleviating investor concerns about potential stagnation in economic reforms [2] - The German business climate index rose from 87.7 to 88.4 in October, indicating improvements in manufacturing, services, and trade, despite a decline in business satisfaction for the third consecutive month [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.71% to 47,544.59 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.23% to 6,875.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.86% to 23,637.46 points, all reaching new historical highs [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 3.40% to $3,997.00 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce [4] Group 4 - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.09% to $65.14 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.64 basis points to 3.482%, with similar declines observed across other maturities [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 98.82, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.71% at 47,544.59 points, the S&P 500 up 1.23% at 6,875.16 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.86% at 23,637.46 points [1] - Major U.S. tech stocks saw collective gains, with Tesla rising over 4%, Google up more than 3%, Nvidia nearly 3%, Apple over 2%, Facebook up more than 1%, and Microsoft and Amazon both rising over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with Daqo New Energy up over 14%, Xpeng Motors up over 6%, Pony.ai up over 6%, JinkoSolar up over 5%, and Baidu Group nearly 5% [1] European Market Performance - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.27% at 24,304.52 points, France's CAC40 index up 0.19% at 8,241.64 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.09% at 9,653.82 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 3.40% at $3,997.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.61% at $46.83 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract rose 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.09% to $65.14 per barrel [1] - London base metals mostly increased, with LME zinc up 0.93% at $3,053.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.55% at $36,000.00 per ton, and LME lead up 0.45% at $2,025.50 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 0.64 basis points at 3.482%, the 3-year yield down 1.40 basis points at 3.480%, and the 10-year yield down 3.46 basis points at 3.976% [1] - European bond yields also decreased, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.400%, France's 10-year yield down 1.7 basis points at 3.414%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 2.614% [1]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange receipts reached a record high of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, with a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in September, which turned into a net inflow in October [1][5]. Market Developments - Indonesia plans to issue offshore RMB-denominated sovereign bonds for the first time, with maturities of 5 and 10 years, marking its entry into the dim sum bond market [2]. - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 22 days due to unresolved issues regarding medical subsidies, with potential continuation into November [2]. - Japan's Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, potentially exceeding last year's ¥13.9 trillion, aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures on households and businesses [5]. - The global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly inflow ever in September, with total inflows for the third quarter reaching a record $26 billion, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion [5]. - Japan's exports in September grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the first expansion in five months, although exports to the U.S. decreased by 13.3% [6]. - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months [5]. Financial Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.93%, respectively [8]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [9]. - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with U.S. oil rising by 3.74% to $59.38 per barrel and Brent crude up by 4.94% to $64.35 per barrel [10].