④欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.02%报25284.26点，法国CAC40指数跌0.47%报 8580.75点，英国富时100指数涨0.59%报10910.55点； ①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.05%报48977.92点，标普500指数跌0.43%报6878.88点，纳指跌 0.92%报22668.21点； ②美国大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌超4%，苹果跌逾3%，微软跌超2%，特斯拉、脸书跌超1%，谷 歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨约1%； ③中概股多数下跌，阿特斯太阳能跌超11%，爱奇艺跌逾6%，世纪互联跌超5%，蔚来跌逾4%，晶科能 源跌超4%，金山云涨近7%，涂鸦智能涨近5%，中通快递涨超1%，小马智行涨近1%； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.97%报5296.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨7.77% 报94.39美元/盎司； ⑥美油主力合约收涨3.19%，报67.29美元/桶，布油主力合约涨3.26%，报73.15美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.15%报97.64，离岸人民币对美元跌168.0个基点报6.8612； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数收跌，LME期铜跌0.0 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 ——这是一种气质的改变，而气质的改变，往往比价格更早。 全球市场周五深夜完成了一次"集体转向"——不是暴跌式崩盘，但背后的变化，往往比单日大跌更值得 警惕： - 美国股市继续下跌，道琼斯指数跌1.07%，标普500指数跌0.43%，纳斯达克指数跌0.92%； - 10年期美债收益率远远跌破4%（报3.94%），触及10月份以来最低水平。2年期收益率跌至2022年以来 最低水平（报3.37%）； - 金价上涨近100美元，远远突破5200美元； - 美元指数冲高回落，以小幅下跌作收； - 英国一家鲜为人知的抵押贷款机构MFS爆雷，加剧了市场对私募信贷系统性违约的担忧——如果私募 信贷违约率上升，科技公司估值会被重新定价，这和AI泡沫焦虑是连着的。 第二，市场进入了"风险关闭模式"：股票跌、债券涨、黄金涨、原油涨，万物皆感寒意。 - 美股下跌，恐慌有蔓延的可能。尤其是这次下跌，关联了原油和美国国债上涨。 - 令我们印象最为深刻的是，10年期美债收益率跌破4%，过去三个月该收益率每次接近或触及4%，都 会向上弹起，但这次不一样，直接跌穿，且没有迅速反抽——这意味着避险需求压倒通胀担忧。尤其是 P ...

⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期锡涨7.19%报53915.0美元/吨，LME期铝涨2.62%报3174.5美元/吨， LME期铅涨2.07%报1995.5美元/吨，LME期铜涨1.39%报13349.5美元/吨，LME期镍涨0.76%报18045.0美 元/吨，LME期锌涨0.22%报3387.0美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨3.10个基点报3.471%，3年期美债收益率涨3.06个基点报 3.486%，5年期美债收益率涨3.29个基点报3.622%，10年期美债收益率涨2.10个基点报4.052%，30年期 美债收益率涨1.94个基点报4.699%； ⑩欧债收益率涨跌不一，英国10年期国债收益率涨1.2个基点报4.316%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.2个 基点报3.253%，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.1个基点报2.705%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点报 3.306%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌0.9个基点报3.108%。 ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.73%报25169.13点，法国CAC40指数涨0.4%报8553.11 点，英国富时100指数涨1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets exhibited a stable performance during the Spring Festival holiday, setting a favorable external environment for the A-share market's reopening, with key drivers including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial metal demand [3][6][13]. Equity Markets - The A-share market experienced a slight decline before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, down 1.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market was the only major Asian market open during the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.52% to 26705.94 points, driven by sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [5]. - The U.S. stock market remained stable, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.10% and the S&P 500 maintaining a strong position, supported by robust corporate earnings and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][14]. Debt Market and Currency - The U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.85%, reflecting an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, driven by easing inflation data [6][13]. - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 6.9225, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. Commodity Market - Industrial metals showed strong performance, with copper prices rising by 1.4% to $13,176 per ton, benefiting from global demand recovery and expectations of liquidity easing [7]. - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil slightly increasing to $62.89 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a bullish trend post-holiday, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of an increase in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to undergo a structural rebound, with a 60% probability of an increase in the month following the holiday, driven by external sentiment and capital inflows [11]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue its strong performance, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable interest rate expectations and solid corporate earnings [14].

经济观察网摩根大通于2026年2月12日发布2026年业绩指引，支出指引为1050亿美元，超出市场预期。 企业与投资银行业务预计成为主要增长动力，2026年第一季度每股收益预计同比增长13.40%，净利润 预计同比增长9.88%。 最近7个交易日(截至2026年2月13日)，摩根大通股票区间涨跌幅为-6.28%，振幅9.27%。最新股价为 302.15美元，当日下跌0.16%，年初至今累计下跌5.80%。银行板块同期下跌0.44%，表现略优于大盘。 近期事件 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 2026年2月13日，美股市场整体下跌，科技股领跌，中概股走弱，银行板块承压，对摩根大通等金融股 形成短期情绪扰动。同日，摩根大通建议做空2年期美债，认为美国经济增长强劲，美联储降息空间有 限。此外，摩根大通在2026年2月初发布开年市场展望，强调地缘政治和AI技术是2026年市场波动的关 键因素。 机构观点 机构对摩根大通的评级整体偏积极，2026年2月有62%的机构给予买入或增持评级，目标均价为350.92 美元，较当前股价有潜在上行空间。摩根大通报告指出，市场对2025年第四季度中国企业盈利增长预期 偏低 ...

路透调查显示，长端美债收益率短期内将持稳，但受通胀及美联储独立性担忧影响，年内晚些时候将趋 于上行；短端收益率则因降息押注温和走低。与此同时，近60%的债券策略师（37人中的21人）认为， 为特朗普减税及支出计划融资而面临的未来数年巨额国债发行，将使美联储大幅缩减6.6万亿美元资产 负债表不具可行性。另一项路透调查显示，美联储预计将在今年晚些时候实施两次降息，首次在沃什接 任美联储主席的6月。对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率预计将从目前的3.50%降至4月底的3.45%、7月底 的3.38%。调查中值还显示，基准10年期美债收益率一年后料升至4.29%，高于上月预测的4.20%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 unchanged at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google and Microsoft down over 2%, Amazon down over 1%, while Intel rose over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla had gains of less than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also had mixed performance, with Century Internet up over 12%, Kingsoft Cloud up 10%, and TSMC up over 3%, while NetEase fell over 4% and iQIYI dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.53% at 24,856.15 points, France's CAC40 down 0.18% at 8,313.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.14% at 10,472.11 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.53% at $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.60% at $84.08 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures rose 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME nickel up 3.29% at $18,065.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.59% at $50,065.0 per ton, and LME copper up 1.00% at $13,239.0 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 6.41 basis points at 3.512%, the 3-year yield up 5.87 basis points at 3.569%, and the 10-year yield up 2.77 basis points at 4.170% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.475%, France's 10-year yield down 2.6 basis points at 3.377%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points at 2.790% [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price ended a two-day rise, closing down 0.74% at $5022.87 per ounce after a brief spike following the release of U.S. retail sales data [1][6] - The gold market opened at $5057.6 per ounce, reached a high of $5077.2, and then fell to a low of $4986.8 before closing at $5024.5, indicating ongoing volatility [2][7] - Resistance levels for gold are noted at $5100-$5350, while support levels are at $5000-$4950 [8] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil opened at $64.45 per barrel, dipped to a low of $63.66, and closed down 0.4% at $64.19, showing a mixed trading pattern [1][9] - The Brent crude oil price fell by 0.27%, closing at $68.53 per barrel, reflecting a similar trend in the oil market [1] - The oil market is expected to test resistance levels between $64.8-$65.6, with support levels at $63.7-$63.0 [9] Group 3: Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25289.68, reached a high of $25616.6, and closed at $25166.83, indicating fluctuations within the trading session [4][10] - The index is experiencing pressure from upper moving averages, with resistance levels identified at $25357-$25600 and support levels at $25100-$25000 [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The gold market experienced a V-shaped reversal, with spot gold opening lower at $4655.57 per ounce, then rebounding over $200 to close at $4965.79 per ounce, marking a 3.9% increase [1][6] - The silver market showed more volatility, dropping nearly 10% to approach $64 per ounce before recovering to close at $77.798 per ounce, a rise of 9.89% [1][6] - The weekly gold market opened at $4780.1 per ounce, reached a low of $4398.4, and a high of $5093.26, ultimately closing at $4964.3 per ounce, indicating a potential for further upward movement [2][8] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - The WTI crude oil market opened at $64.033 per barrel, fell to a low of $61.115, peaked at $65.571, and closed at $63.503, indicating a continued range-bound trading pattern [3][9] - Brent crude oil closed at $67.54 per barrel, reflecting a 0.74% increase, while WTI saw a 0.59% rise [1][6] - The oil market is in a phase of adjustment, with potential for bullish trends, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3][9] Group 3: Nasdaq Market Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25403.22, reached a high of $25917.43, a low of $24138.08, and closed at $25011.28, indicating a potential for further upward movement [4][10] - The weekly closing pattern suggests a bullish outlook, with a focus on buying on dips [4][10]

一夜过后，全球市场又陷入危险之中： - 美股科技股抛售加剧，纳斯达克100指数遭遇自去年10月以来最严重的两日暴跌。并跌破100日移动均 线，一些技术分析师认为，这一水平预示着未来可能出现更多下跌。 - 比特币也延续下跌势头，向70000美元整数水平试探。 - 与此同时，黄金回吐当日大部分涨幅，仅微幅上涨。 - 美元指数则转而上涨，收复了1月23日以来的跌幅。 这一轮下跌有两个明显特点： 来源：华尔街情报圈 第二，美元出现明显上涨，过去"美元下跌，万物上涨"的旧公式失效了。 美元不是因为"美国多好"才涨的，而是资金在撤、在避险，这对科技股、比特币、高估值资产是天然压 制。 更为关键的是，昨晚（北京时间00:39）美国财长贝森特说了一句"我们始终支持强势美元政策"。这句 话，本质是"给市场画了一条红线"。等于在告诉市场，不要指望通过美元贬值来缓解金融压力，美元不 再承担"稳定资产价格"的功能。 但这并非是一轮危机，正如我们今天在《环球市场策略》中所言： 如果这是系统性危机债市会暴动，收益率会大涨，但这一幕并没有发生，2年期美债收益率 还微跌。说明这并非危机，仅仅是市场层面的资产重新定价。 我们将这轮行情的"危险 ...