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研报掘金丨长江证券:维持贵州茅台“买入”评级,改革持续推进,长期价值依然凸显
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 08:12
Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that Kweichow Moutai's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.89% [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the operating net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 18.555 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.25% [1] - The iMoutai segment contributed 10.76 billion yuan in non-tax revenue for H1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.98% [1] Channel Performance - In Q2 2025, the direct sales channel's proportion continues to increase, indicating a shift in sales strategy [1] Strategic Initiatives - Kweichow Moutai is actively promoting marketing reforms, transitioning from a product-centric model to one that balances both products and services [1] - The company has a three-year dividend plan in place, which is expected to enhance its dividend yield value [1] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term revenue and profit slowdowns due to policy factors, the long-term growth certainty for Kweichow Moutai remains strong [1] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 74.34 yuan and 78.74 yuan, respectively, with corresponding latest PE ratios of 20 and 19 times [1]