"双节"终端动销增长 从全国市场到北京区域，茅台酒终端动销的增长态势已通过官方数据明确显现。9月25日晚，贵州茅台 对外披露，从近期各地市场调研及各方反馈数据来看，茅台酒市场整体呈现稳中向好态势。其中，6 月-7月茅台酒有效稳住市场销售基本面；8月起，市场终端动销环比增长态势显著；9月以来，茅台酒终 端动销同比增长超20%。业内认为，这一系列积极变化，既反映出消费端节日需求的增长，也印证了面 对行业周期调整，茅台渠道体系所展现的强劲韧性。 10月5日，在宣武门附近的一家烟酒店内，进店询价、购买的顾客络绎不绝，2025年份53度500毫升飞天 茅台终端价比去年同期更趋理性，进一步刺激了消费需求；而在三里屯附近的一家烟酒超市，终端价在 1888元的飞天茅台已售罄，消费者需等待跨店调货。 大型商超同样如此：在沃尔玛宣武门店，工作人员表示2025年份飞天茅台已无库存，目前仅剩余2023年 份产品，售价2799元，其余品类茅台产品备货充足，可满足多样化消费需求。 位于菜市口的一家贵州茅台专卖店的销售人员也有相同感受："双节期间销售明显优于平日，动销数据 有显著好转"。从核心业绩指标来看，"双节"前后茅台酒在北京全渠道销 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's digital marketing platform "i Moutai" has upgraded its services by introducing "instant delivery," enhancing consumer experience and meeting time-sensitive demands for products like Moutai liquor [2][3]. Group 1: Service Upgrade - The new "instant delivery" service allows consumers within a 10-kilometer radius of select stores to receive orders in as fast as 30 minutes [2]. - This service is part of a broader strategy to optimize the "i Moutai" platform, which has already achieved over 60 billion yuan in sales and has more than 76 million registered users as of May this year [2]. Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The launch of the "instant delivery" service coincides with the conclusion of Moutai's autumn market research, indicating a cohesive strategic approach [2]. - Recent market research across 16 provinces has led to consensus among management and distributors on "customer group transformation, scenario transformation, and service transformation" [2]. Group 3: Product and Channel Synergy - Moutai's product strategy this year has been closely aligned with the capabilities of the "i Moutai" platform, with several new products launched through it [3]. - The implementation of instant delivery is seen as a practical application of the company's strategic direction towards service and terminal transformation, enhancing consumer experience and driving sales [3].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's digital marketing platform "i Moutai" has officially upgraded its services by introducing "instant delivery" alongside existing delivery options [1] - The instant delivery service allows consumers within a 10-kilometer radius of select stores to receive orders in as fast as 30 minutes, initially covering specific Moutai products [1] - The launch of this service is part of a broader strategy to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, aligning with recent market research conducted by Moutai management [1][2] Group 1 - The "i Moutai" platform is a crucial part of Guizhou Moutai's "4+6" channel ecosystem, achieving over 60 billion yuan in sales and surpassing 76 million registered users by May this year [1] - The instant delivery service is designed to meet the high time sensitivity of consumers in scenarios such as family gatherings and business gifting [1] - Recent market research across 16 provinces has led to a consensus among Moutai management and distributors on the need for customer, scenario, and service transformations [1] Group 2 - Moutai's product strategy has been closely aligned with the capabilities of the "i Moutai" platform, launching several new products through this channel this year [2] - The implementation of instant delivery is seen as a practical application of Moutai's service transformation and terminal innovation strategies, aimed at enhancing consumer experience and driving sales [2] - Future expansion of the instant delivery service to more product categories is expected to strengthen "i Moutai's" market perception and user service capabilities, providing solid support for Moutai's marketing efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The digital marketing platform "i Moutai" under Kweichow Moutai has upgraded its service system by introducing an "instant delivery" option, enhancing consumer convenience and responsiveness in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Service Upgrade - The new "instant delivery" service allows consumers to receive orders within 30 minutes from select stores within a 10-kilometer radius [1][3]. - This service initially covers two products: the 1L and 500ml bottles of Kweichow Moutai liquor [3]. Group 2: Market Response and Strategy - The introduction of instant delivery is part of Kweichow Moutai's strategy to deepen channel digitization and refine service quality, coinciding with the completion of its autumn market research [4][5]. - Recent market research indicates that Kweichow Moutai liquor's terminal sales have doubled month-on-month and increased over 20% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in channel inventory levels [5]. Group 3: Consumer Experience Enhancement - The instant delivery service aims to meet the high timeliness demands for occasions such as family gatherings and business gifts, thereby enhancing consumer experience [3][5]. - The service expansion is expected to strengthen the market perception and user service capabilities of the "i Moutai" platform, providing solid support for Kweichow Moutai's marketing efforts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that Kweichow Moutai's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.89% [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the operating net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 18.555 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.25% [1] - The iMoutai segment contributed 10.76 billion yuan in non-tax revenue for H1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.98% [1] Channel Performance - In Q2 2025, the direct sales channel's proportion continues to increase, indicating a shift in sales strategy [1] Strategic Initiatives - Kweichow Moutai is actively promoting marketing reforms, transitioning from a product-centric model to one that balances both products and services [1] - The company has a three-year dividend plan in place, which is expected to enhance its dividend yield value [1] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term revenue and profit slowdowns due to policy factors, the long-term growth certainty for Kweichow Moutai remains strong [1] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 74.34 yuan and 78.74 yuan, respectively, with corresponding latest PE ratios of 20 and 19 times [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 39.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.26%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.555 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.25% increase year-on-year [2][6] - Direct sales continue to increase, with H1 2025 direct sales revenue reaching 40.01 billion yuan (up 18.62% year-on-year) and Q2 2025 direct sales revenue at 16.789 billion yuan (up 16.52% year-on-year) [13] - The company is experiencing a slight decline in profitability, with the net profit margin for H1 2025 decreasing by 0.12 percentage points to 49.84% [13] Financial Performance - The company expects EPS of 74.34 yuan for 2025 and 78.74 yuan for 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20 and 19 times, respectively [13] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 91.46%, down 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased slightly to 7.18% [13] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 189.797 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross profit of 174.328 billion yuan [18]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing for the first half of 2025, addressing investor concerns regarding the iMoutai platform's revenue growth and its declining share of direct sales revenue [1] Group 1: iMoutai Performance - iMoutai's revenue increased by 4.98% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but its share of direct sales revenue decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 26.89% [1] - The company views iMoutai as a crucial part of its "4+6" channel ecosystem and has been optimizing its product placement strategy in response to market dynamics [1] Group 2: Future Strategies - The company plans to continue refining the operational model, product deployment strategies, and marketing approaches for the iMoutai platform to enhance its performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period characterized by policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and intensified competition, leading to a slowdown or negative growth in the revenue of listed liquor companies in 2025 [1][5][14] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, only five out of 17 liquor companies reported revenue growth, with Moutai, Wuliangye, Gujing, Jinhui, and Fenjiu showing positive growth, while 12 companies, including Jiu Gui, experienced negative growth, with Jiu Gui's revenue declining by 43% [2][3] - The overall revenue of the liquor industry is expected to face a slowdown, with a significant number of companies reporting negative profit growth, including a staggering 750.54% decline for Jinzizi [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing structural changes, with a notable decline in government and business consumption, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards lower-priced products [5][10] - The market for strong aroma liquor is projected to grow to over 300 billion yuan by 2025, but with a low compound annual growth rate of only 3%, indicating a challenging environment for regional liquor companies [7][10] Group 3: Product Segmentation - The introduction of new national standards for sauce-flavored liquor is expected to accelerate industry reshuffling, imposing significant cost pressures on small and medium-sized distilleries [8][10] - Clear aroma liquor is gaining traction among younger consumers, with its market share increasing significantly, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards lighter and more affordable options [11][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The liquor industry is anticipated to continue facing challenges, with a projected 7.2% decline in production in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of decline [5][10] - The market is expected to transition from "barbaric expansion" to "structural growth," with leading companies likely to increase their market share as weaker players exit [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has regained its position as the highest-priced stock in the A-share market, surpassing Cambricon Technologies, following a series of stock trading activities and announcements from both companies [2][3]. Stock Performance - As of September 1, Guizhou Moutai's stock price reached 1476.1 CNY per share, while Cambricon's was at 1448.39 CNY per share, making them the only two stocks priced over 1000 CNY in the A-share market [2]. - On August 28, Cambricon's stock surged by 15.73%, closing at 1587.91 CNY, briefly taking the lead as the highest-priced stock before Moutai reclaimed the title [2]. Stock Buyback and Shareholding - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder, Moutai Group, announced a plan to buy back shares worth between 30 billion CNY and 33 billion CNY within a six-month period starting from September 1, 2025 [2][5]. - On September 1, Moutai Group executed its buyback plan by acquiring 67,821 shares, amounting to approximately 100 million CNY, which represents 0.0054% of the company's total share capital [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion CNY, up 8.89% [6]. - The company achieved 47.99% of its annual revenue growth target of approximately 189.817 billion CNY in the first half of the year [6]. - Moutai's sales from direct sales and wholesale channels contributed 400.09 billion CNY and 493.43 billion CNY, respectively, with a total of 2,280 domestic and 115 international distributors [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 1600 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 89.39 billion CNY in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.10%, with the growth rate falling to single digits for the first time since 2016 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.40 billion CNY, up 8.89% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability despite a challenging market environment [1][3]. - The report highlights that while the core product, Moutai liquor, continues to drive growth, the series liquor segment has shown a decline, suggesting a need for strategic adjustments [2][3]. Revenue Growth Analysis - In Q2 2025, Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues were 32.03 billion CNY and 6.74 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% for Moutai and a decline of 6.5% for series liquor [2]. - Direct sales and wholesale revenues in Q2 2025 were 16.79 billion CNY and 21.98 billion CNY, showing growth of 16.5% and 1.5% respectively, with direct sales performing particularly well [2]. - Domestic and international revenues for Q2 2025 were 36.99 billion CNY and 1.77 billion CNY, representing year-on-year changes of +6.7% and +27.6%, indicating strong international growth potential [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 90.42% and 47.84%, showing slight declines of 0.26 percentage points and 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, due to product mix and cost pressures [3]. - The report notes an increase in selling and administrative expense ratios, with selling expenses rising by 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while management expenses decreased by 0.33 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 4.31 billion CNY, down 84.29% year-on-year, indicating increased cash recovery pressure [3]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 9.0%, 7.5%, and 7.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 8.8%, 7.5%, and 7.5% for the same periods [4][10]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4x for 2025, reflecting the company's valuation in the context of its growth prospects [4].