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上海家化:主动调整24年业绩承压,25Q1企稳,静待改善-20250508
China Post Securities· 2025-05-08 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][14]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in 2024, with a revenue decline of 13.9% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 833 million yuan, primarily due to goodwill impairment in overseas operations and strategic adjustments in its core business [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of stabilization with a revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 217 million yuan, indicating a sequential improvement [3][4]. - The company is undergoing various adjustments in organizational structure, brand strategy, product innovation, and channel operations, with expectations for continued improvement in performance [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 24.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 16.2 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 672 million shares, with an asset-liability ratio of 32.7% [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the personal care segment generated 2.38 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 3.42% year-on-year, while the beauty segment saw a significant decline of 29.81% to 1.05 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s online channel revenue was 2.54 billion yuan, down 9.7%, while offline channel revenue fell 17% to 3.14 billion yuan [5]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming to align the interests of key employees with the company's long-term growth [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 310 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 480 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 52x, 42x, and 34x [6][10].
上海家化(600315):主动调整24年业绩承压,25Q1企稳,静待改善
China Post Securities· 2025-05-08 07:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [8][14]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in 2024, with a reported revenue of 5.679 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -833 million yuan, a decline of 266.6% [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of stabilization with a revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 217 million yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a strategic shift in the company's operations, focusing on improving product lines and enhancing online sales channels while reducing inventory in offline channels [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 24.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 16.2 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 672 million shares, all of which are circulating [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the personal care segment generated 2.38 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 3.42% year-on-year, while the beauty segment saw a significant drop of 29.81% to 1.05 billion yuan [4]. - The company is undergoing adjustments in its organizational structure, brand strategy, product innovation, and channel operations, with expectations for continued improvement in 2025 [6][10]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 310 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 137.4% in 2026 and 23.6% in 2027 [10][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.46 yuan, improving to 0.57 yuan in 2026 and 0.71 yuan in 2027 [10][11].