行业研究丨深度报告丨零售业 [Table_Title] 化妆品掘金增长系列：品类视角拆解竞争格局 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为对美妆竞争格局的判断，如细致拆解为品类和渠道，则可得出两方面结论：其一，对 于已建立领先优势的品牌，乳液面霜、面部精华为其品类基本盘，前者头部效应显著、后者更 易实现品类间连带；天猫为其渠道基本盘，在该渠道占据头部地位的品牌公司更易实现"强者 恒强"。其二，对于寻求增量、力求拓品类的品牌，抖音渠道尚处格局成长期，更易依托运营及 产品力实现排名突破。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SFC：BUV258 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 李锦 罗祎 曾维朵 [Table_Title2] 化妆品掘金增长系列：品类视角拆解竞争格局 [Table_Summary2] 总量：行业增速平稳，核心品类仍具国产化空间 护肤行业增速平稳 ...

2026年1月21日及29日，科思股份披露2025年业绩预告，预计全年归母净利润为0.9亿元至1.2亿元，同比 下降78.67%至84%，扣非净利润同比下降78.31%至83.97%。业绩变动主要受防晒市场需求增长放缓、 下游客户去库存及行业竞争加剧影响，导致产品量价齐跌。 财务状况 2025年第三季度报告显示，公司营收同比下降39.93%，归母净利润同比下降84.84%，毛利率从2023年 的48.8%下滑至29.7%。经营活动现金流净额也大幅下降，反映出短期市场压力。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网科思股份（300856）实际控制人变更，2025年业绩预告显示净利润同比大幅下滑，第三季度 财务数据承压。 高管变动 2025年11月20日，科思股份公告实际控制人之一周久京先生因病逝世，其持有的公司股份13,650,000股 由配偶傅小兰女士继承，公司实际控制人变更为周旭明先生。本次变动不会影响公司治理结构和持续经 营。 业绩经营情况 ...

北京商报讯（记者 何倩）2月3日，北京商报记者获悉，三只羊旗下知名主播"七老板"近日在抖音账号 上宣布，自己已和三只羊公司解约，未来会用优质的内容和服务回馈大家。 截至北京商报记者发稿，七老板抖音账号粉丝量达584.8万，最近的直播动态停留在今年1月。在2024年 12月，该账号移除了三只羊MCN的标识。 据了解，七老板曾是三只羊旗下知名主播，也是小杨哥徒弟，擅长美妆直播。在小杨哥"假月饼"事件 后，三只羊旗下主播如七老板、红绿灯的黄等停止了直播。 今年以来，三只羊复播动作频频。1月初，三只羊旗下主播如嘴哥、乔妹、老 K、卓士琳等核心主播集 体进行预告并陆续复播。不仅如此，三只羊网络官方账号也自2024年9月停播后正式复播，不过大小杨 哥未有露面。 2025年5月，七老板在淘宝开播，账号MCN标识为明澄网络。彼时，七老板账号首播场观量达53.04 万，主要售卖美妆、防晒等产品，粉丝关注量为5592人。北京商报记者发现，目前该账号已无法搜索 出。 ...

Group 1: SpaceX IPO Plans - SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, aims to complete its IPO by July this year, moving up from previous expectations of a 2026 listing [2] - The company was valued at $800 billion during a secondary market share sale in December last year [2] Group 2: Vanke Debt Restructuring - Vanke has successfully passed a key proposal for debt extension, allowing it to pay 40% of the principal on its domestic bond "21 Vanke 02" and extend the remaining 60% for one year [2] - The proposal received overwhelming support with a 92.11% approval rate, marking a significant step in alleviating Vanke's liquidity pressures [2] - Despite this progress, Vanke still faces over 10 billion in maturing debts this year, indicating that its recovery efforts are just beginning [2] Group 3: Suiyuan Technology IPO Acceptance - Suiyuan Technology has had its IPO application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the first company to be accepted for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2026 [4] - The company focuses on cloud AI chips and has developed four generations of architecture and five chip models, indicating a strong position in the domestic AI chip market [4]

Core Insights - The sunscreen market for 2026 has already begun, with brands launching new products and marketing campaigns earlier than usual due to the late Lunar New Year holiday and the upcoming beauty consumption wave around International Women's Day [1][3] - Concerns arise over a potential price war in the sunscreen market, as many products are priced below 30 yuan, leading to questions about the sustainability of innovation trends such as multifunctional products and seasonal marketing strategies [1][3] Market Trends - Major brands like L'Oréal and Sekkisei have already iterated their core sunscreen products, initiating a "winter offensive" marketing strategy to extend the sales cycle throughout the year [3] - The total number of sunscreen product registrations has reached 4,835 since 2021, with 704 new registrations in 2025, indicating a rich product variety in the market [5] Sales Performance - From January to November 2025, sunscreen products sold 155 million units, generating sales of 14.153 billion yuan, surpassing the total sales of 12.045 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 [7] - Sales growth in different price segments shows that products priced below 100 yuan generated 5.588 billion yuan, while those priced between 100-200 yuan and above 200 yuan saw growth rates of 20.44%, 15.27%, and 16.02% respectively [7][8] Brand Dynamics - The sales ranking for sunscreen brands remains stable, with Mistine, L'Oréal, and Anessa leading the market. L'Oréal experienced a significant growth of 47.94% during this period [8] - New product launches are increasingly focused on mainstream sunscreen creams, with outdoor-focused products performing well [12] Consumer Behavior - The rise of ultra-low-priced sunscreen products reflects a cautious consumer spending trend, allowing for more choices and lower trial costs for consumers [18] - The market is witnessing a shift towards smaller, lower-priced products that cater to specific consumer needs and preferences [18] Innovation and Technology - The sunscreen industry is seeing advancements in research and development, with a focus on anti-aging and light damage protection becoming central themes [19][23] - Brands are increasingly integrating skincare benefits into sunscreen products, with many new launches featuring dual certifications for whitening and sun protection [20][23] Industry Standards and Certification - Brands are actively participating in the establishment of industry standards, with initiatives like the "first" and "only" certifications becoming competitive advantages [30][31] - The introduction of AI-driven models for product development, such as Mistine's SCOPE-DTI model, marks a significant shift in the research landscape, enhancing the efficiency of product development in the sunscreen category [34][32]

Core Viewpoint - The sunscreen market for 2026 has already begun, with brands launching new products and marketing campaigns earlier than usual, indicating a shift towards year-round sales strategies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - The sunscreen category is experiencing a "winter offensive," with brands like L'Oréal and Sekkisei launching core products ahead of schedule [5]. - The total number of sunscreen product registrations has reached 4,835 since 2021, with 704 new registrations in 2025, marking it as the most diverse year for sunscreen products [7]. - Sales data from major platforms shows that from January to November 2025, sunscreen sales reached 155 million units, generating a revenue of 1.4153 billion yuan, surpassing the total sales of 1.2045 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. Group 2: Pricing and Consumer Behavior - Sunscreen products priced below 100 yuan accounted for significant sales, with a total revenue of 558.8 million yuan, indicating a strong preference for cost-effective options [9][16]. - The market has seen a rise in ultra-low-priced sunscreen products, with some brands offering products as low as 7.6 yuan for 90mL, catering to cautious consumers [14][16]. - The trend towards smaller, lower-priced products allows consumers to experiment with different options at a lower cost, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards more selective purchasing [16]. Group 3: Brand Performance - Leading brands in the sunscreen category include Mistine, L'Oréal, and Anessa, with L'Oréal showing a remarkable growth of 47.94% in sales [10][11]. - The sales ranking for sunscreen brands has remained stable, with Mistine and L'Oréal maintaining their positions at the top [11]. - Brands are increasingly focusing on outdoor scenarios and specific marketing strategies to extend the sales cycle of sunscreen products throughout the year [5][13]. Group 4: Product Innovation - The market is witnessing a trend towards multifunctional products, with innovations such as whitening sunscreens and sunscreen makeup gaining traction [18][22]. - New technologies in sunscreen formulations are being developed, focusing on skin feel, film-forming properties, and environmental friendliness [25][27]. - Brands are integrating anti-aging and skin repair properties into their sunscreen products, reflecting a shift in research focus towards combating light-induced skin aging [20][22][23]. Group 5: Industry Standards and Research - Brands are taking an active role in setting industry standards, with initiatives like the "sunscreen easily washable" standard being established [31]. - The competition in sunscreen research is intensifying, with brands like Mistine utilizing AI models to enhance product development efficiency [35][37]. - The emphasis on scientific research and innovation is reshaping the sunscreen category, moving towards a more systematic and year-round approach to market strategies [29][38].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of the baby and child care industry in China, particularly in the baby wash and care segment, which is expected to surpass North America and Europe, making China the largest single consumer market for baby care products [1][11]. Group 1: Market Potential - The population of children aged 0-18 in China is projected to reach 261.8 million by the end of 2024, surpassing that of high-income economies [2]. - The average annual expenditure on child-rearing in China is expected to exceed 20,000 yuan in 2024, with total costs exceeding 500,000 yuan from pregnancy to age 17 [5][7]. - The baby wash and care market in China is projected to reach nearly 33 billion yuan by 2024, with expectations to exceed 45 billion yuan by 2028, maintaining a growth rate above 7.5% [15]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - Consumers are increasingly focused on safety, efficacy, and brand reputation when selecting baby care products, with 52.8% prioritizing natural ingredients [28][30]. - The demand for facial and scalp care products is rising among older children and teenagers, with significant growth in sunscreen and children's makeup products [17][19]. - The market is characterized by low brand loyalty, with only 24.7% of consumers consistently using a single brand, indicating a preference for trying various brands [32]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The market concentration for baby care products is relatively low, with a CR10 of 38.5% and a CR20 of 56.2%, suggesting a need for more brands to meet diverse consumer demands [22]. - Both international and local brands are competing effectively, with local brands rapidly gaining market share through innovative marketing and product development [25][30]. - The article highlights the importance of localized strategies for international brands to capitalize on the opportunities in the Chinese market [35]. Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Content marketing, authoritative endorsements, and AI-driven interactive marketing are essential strategies for engaging consumers in the baby care market [40]. - Social media platforms, particularly short video platforms and Xiaohongshu, are the primary channels for consumers to learn about and share baby care products [26].

Summary of Water Sheep Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Water Sheep Co. has undergone significant transformation focusing on high-end and global strategies, creating a product matrix that includes mass, premium, and high-end brands [4][5][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Core Brand Performance**: The mass brand YuniFang achieved single-digit sales growth in H1 2025, with losses significantly narrowing to a few million per quarter, indicating successful brand upgrade and channel adjustment strategies [2][5] - **Growth of Premium Brands**: The premium brand HB saw growth nearly doubling, with annual revenue expected to reach tens of millions. The VAA brand also showed significant growth, with annual revenue projected to exceed 100 million [2][5] - **High-End Brand Profitability**: The high-end brand Ifidan improved its profit margin to over 18% in H1 2025, achieving a 20% growth rate through channel structure adjustments, enhancing profitability [2][6][7] - **Acquisition of High-End Makeup Brand**: The high-end makeup brand PA, after acquisition, showed rapid growth with a profit margin exceeding 5%, indicating potential as a new growth point [2][6] - **Focus on Overseas Market**: RV is concentrating on optimizing overseas teams and channels, with losses expected not to impact overall group profits [2][6] Future Strategies - **Product Promotion**: The company plans to increase promotion of sunscreen products and new face creams, expand offline direct stores, and enhance user experience with SPA areas to boost repurchase rates [2][8] - **Sales Target**: The mid-term sales target for Ifidan is set to exceed 2 billion [9] - **Channel Optimization**: The company aims to continue optimizing channel structures and enriching the product matrix for sustained growth [8] Financial Projections - **Profit Expectations**: The company is expected to achieve over 250 million in profits for 2025 and at least 300 million in 2026, with current valuations being attractive within the cosmetics sector [3][15] Additional Insights - **SPA Store Performance**: SPA stores typically break even in the second quarter after opening in department stores, with all direct stores equipped with SPA areas, contributing to both profitability and brand promotion [9] - **Global Management Advantage**: Water Sheep Co. has transformed into a global luxury management group, leveraging its international platform for resource accumulation and brand operation, enhancing its reputation in the global beauty market [10] - **R&D and Supply Chain Capabilities**: The company possesses strong R&D and supply chain capabilities, supporting product iterations post-acquisition [11][12] - **Stable Cash Flow from Operations**: The company plans to retain its operational business for stable cash flow and as a window for potential acquisition targets [13] Growth Drivers - **Beauty Market Trends**: The growth of MeisiDike in 2025 is driven by opportunities in the oral beauty segment and resource concentration on MeisiLick, with a focus on long-term brand development [14]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of the baby and child care industry in China, particularly in the baby wash and care segment, which is expected to surpass North America and Europe, becoming the largest single consumer market globally [1][11]. Group 1: Market Potential - The population of children aged 0-18 in China is projected to reach 261.8 million by the end of 2024, surpassing that of high-income economies [2]. - The market for children aged 4-12 is particularly significant, with over 130 million children in this age group, indicating a vast potential for segmented wash and care products [2]. - The youth market (ages 13-18) is the fastest-growing segment, driven by skin issues related to puberty, with a population of approximately 96.25 million [2]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - Disposable income for urban residents in China has increased from 31,195 yuan in 2015 to 54,188 yuan in 2024, a growth of 73.7%, which positively impacts child-rearing expenditures [5]. - Average annual spending on child-rearing is expected to exceed 20,000 yuan in 2024, with total costs surpassing 500,000 yuan from pregnancy to age 17 [5]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Projections - The Chinese baby wash and care market is projected to reach nearly 33 billion yuan by 2024 and is expected to exceed 45 billion yuan by 2028, with a consistent growth rate of over 7.5% [15]. - The market for children aged 0-3 years accounts for over 50% of the total market share, although competition is intensifying due to a declining population in this age group [15]. Group 4: Product Demand and Trends - Demand for facial and scalp care products is increasing, with sunscreen becoming a standard requirement, while children's makeup remains underdeveloped [17][19]. - The largest market segment is body care, but facial care shows significant growth potential as consumer focus shifts [19]. Group 5: Brand Dynamics - The market is characterized by a low concentration of brands, with a CR10 of 38.5% and a CR20 of 56.2%, indicating a need for more brands to meet diverse consumer demands [22]. - Both international and local brands are competing effectively, with local brands rapidly gaining market share through innovative marketing and product development [25]. Group 6: Consumer Preferences - Safety, efficacy, and brand reputation are the primary factors influencing consumer choices, with 52.8% prioritizing natural ingredients [28]. - Consumers exhibit low brand loyalty, with only 24.7% consistently using a single brand, indicating a willingness to explore various options [32]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The article suggests that international brands must localize their strategies to capitalize on the opportunities within the Chinese market [35]. - The focus should be on youth-oriented products, targeted efficacy, and comprehensive solutions to meet evolving consumer needs [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is actively expanding its offline channels and is expected to see strong performance from its new youth product series [5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 895 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [8] - The company has launched over 40 new or upgraded products in the first half of 2025, focusing on sunscreen products for infants and youth, thereby expanding its product matrix [8] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 59.0%, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 20.9% [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 330 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 490 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 23%, and 19% [8] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1,318 million yuan in 2024 to 2,302 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 27.61%, 24.81%, 20.96%, and 15.68% respectively [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 300 million yuan in 2024 to 488 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 32.80%, 11.13%, 22.61%, and 19.42% respectively [7][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 14.43% in 2024 to 18.56% in 2027 [7][10]