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如何有效提振消费,刘世锦最新发言
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-16 09:17
Core Viewpoint - The current consumption shortfall in China is a structural deviation that requires investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new momentum for stable growth and transformation [2][3][4]. Consumption Shortfall - China's economic recovery faces severe challenges due to insufficient demand, primarily stemming from low consumption rather than investment [3]. - The consumption rate in China is comparatively low, indicating a structural deviation, particularly in service consumption related to education, healthcare, housing, social security, and elderly care [3][4]. - The largest gap in consumption is found among rural residents, especially among nearly 300 million migrant workers and 200 million rural workers who have moved to cities [3][4]. Concept of "Terminal Demand" - The concept of "terminal demand" combines consumption and non-productive investment, focusing on real estate and infrastructure related to people's livelihoods [4]. - Historical rapid growth in real estate and infrastructure has led to overextension, contributing to current economic challenges such as low prices and nominal growth below actual growth [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - Investment policies should focus on stimulating consumption to address the low consumption ratio, aiming to raise the consumption share of GDP to a reasonable level as a hard task for stable growth [8][9]. - Structural reforms should target low-income groups to enhance their consumption capacity, particularly in essential service sectors [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Three key areas for structural reform include: 1. Addressing housing shortages for migrant workers by allowing local governments to use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for affordable housing projects [10]. 2. Reforming the pension system to ensure coverage for all residents, aiming to gradually increase pension income to 1,000 yuan/month over five years [11][12]. 3. Promoting a second wave of urbanization by facilitating the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, targeting the development of small and medium-sized towns [13].