Core Viewpoint - The current consumption shortfall in China is a structural deviation that requires investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new momentum for stable growth and transformation [2][3][4]. Consumption Shortfall - China's economic recovery faces severe challenges due to insufficient demand, primarily stemming from low consumption rather than investment [3]. - The consumption rate in China is comparatively low, indicating a structural deviation, particularly in service consumption related to education, healthcare, housing, social security, and elderly care [3][4]. - The largest gap in consumption is found among rural residents, especially among nearly 300 million migrant workers and 200 million rural workers who have moved to cities [3][4]. Concept of "Terminal Demand" - The concept of "terminal demand" combines consumption and non-productive investment, focusing on real estate and infrastructure related to people's livelihoods [4]. - Historical rapid growth in real estate and infrastructure has led to overextension, contributing to current economic challenges such as low prices and nominal growth below actual growth [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - Investment policies should focus on stimulating consumption to address the low consumption ratio, aiming to raise the consumption share of GDP to a reasonable level as a hard task for stable growth [8][9]. - Structural reforms should target low-income groups to enhance their consumption capacity, particularly in essential service sectors [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Three key areas for structural reform include: 1. Addressing housing shortages for migrant workers by allowing local governments to use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for affordable housing projects [10]. 2. Reforming the pension system to ensure coverage for all residents, aiming to gradually increase pension income to 1,000 yuan/month over five years [11][12]. 3. Promoting a second wave of urbanization by facilitating the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, targeting the development of small and medium-sized towns [13].

记者丨卜羽勤 编辑丨曾芳 消费不足是一种结构性偏差 "近年来我国经济增长疫后复苏、回升向好，也面临需求不足的严峻挑战。需求不足主要不是 投资不足，而是消费不足。"刘世锦认为，不论从国际比较、发展阶段还是消费结构来看，我 国消费率均处于偏低水平，这种状况可被称之是一种结构性偏差。 他具体指出，消费不足主要体现在服务消费的不足，重点是教育、医疗、保障性住房、社 保、养老等与基本公共服务相关的发展型消费不足；消费不足最大的缺口在于农村居民，重 点是近三亿农民工、近两亿进城农民工；消费不足实质上还是由来已久的城乡二元结构问 题，要通过以人为中心、发展权利平等的城市化和城乡融合发展为主线的结构性改革找到破 题之道。 为此，他提出了一个"终端需求"的概念，即消费+非生产性投资，后者主要是与民生相关的房 地产和基础设施建设。 刘世锦认为，过去相当长时间内，房地产和基建高速增长，从国际比较看，实际上存在着超 前和透支的问题。 当前中国经济面临诸多挑战，包括价格低迷、名义增长低于实际增长等， 根源都指向终端需求不足。解决消费比重过低问题，把终端需求提到合理水平，就有了经济 运行的源头活水 。 8月16日，由南方财经全媒体集团指 ...

21世纪经济报道记者卜羽勤 上海报道 8月16日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导，《21世纪经济报道》主办、浦发银行联合主办的"2025资产管理年会"在上海浦东隆重举 办。 在上午的年会上，十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦以"实行有效扩大消费方针，形成稳 增长促转型的新动能"为主题发表了主旨演讲。他认为，现阶段我国消费不足是一种结构性偏差，要用抓投资的政策力度和资金 投入去抓消费，减少消费不足的结构性偏差，形成稳增长促转型的新动能。 消费不足是一种结构性偏差 "近年来我国经济增长疫后复苏、回升向好，也面临需求不足的严峻挑战。需求不足主要不是投资不足，而是消费不足。"刘世 锦认为，不论从国际比较、发展阶段还是消费结构来看，我国消费率均处于偏低水平，这种状况可被称之是一种结构性偏差。 用抓投资的政策力度和资金投入去抓消费 近期我国在创新领域呈现出令人鼓舞的新气象，如DeepSeek、人形机器人等新兴技术的兴起。刘世锦认为，这些提升的是经济 增长的高度，即社会要素生产率的提升，它主要由技术创新、体制改革、对外开放等推动。 但是，目前更为紧迫的是增长宽度问题，它指的是全部社会成员中不同部分在 ...