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当基金经理择时空间被“锁死”,我们该如何进行仓位择时?
雪球· 2025-05-28 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of a new floating management fee structure for mutual funds, which charges fees based on the holding duration and performance of each investor's shares, leading to a "personalized" fee model [3][6]. Group 1: Floating Management Fee Structure - The new fee structure allows fund companies to adjust management fees based on the performance of each investor's holdings relative to performance benchmarks, potentially increasing fees for profitable investments and decreasing them for losses [3]. - This model may limit fund managers' ability to time the market effectively, as the timing of investor purchases and redemptions is beyond their control [3][6]. Group 2: Timing Strategies of Fund Managers - Historically, active fund managers have relied on market timing to capture opportunities and mitigate risks, which has been a core value proposition for generating excess returns [8]. - Examples of successful fund managers who have effectively utilized timing strategies include Feng Hanjie and Qi Fupeng, who have demonstrated significant adjustments in stock positions during market fluctuations [10][11]. Group 3: Passive Timing Clauses in Fund Contracts - The article highlights a fund with a passive timing clause, which has achieved an annualized return exceeding 13% since inception, showcasing the effectiveness of a structured approach to timing based on market indices [15][17]. - The fund's strategy involves adjusting stock allocations based on the Shanghai Composite Index, with a clear negative correlation between stock positions and index movements, allowing for risk management during market volatility [18][20]. Group 4: Practical Applications for Individual Investors - The successful practices of the highlighted fund provide insights for individual investors, suggesting the use of a broader index, such as the CSI All Share Index, for better market representation [22]. - The article proposes a passive timing strategy for individual investors, emphasizing the importance of disciplined position management in a constrained market environment [27]. Group 5: Tools for Asset Allocation - The article introduces a new tool, the "Three-Point Dashboard," which aids in monitoring and managing multi-asset allocations, making it easier for investors to track key indicators across various asset classes [27][30]. - This tool is designed to simplify the complexities of asset allocation and provide actionable insights for investors who may lack a comprehensive methodology [28].