冷鲜及烘焙产品

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三全食品(002216):出海加码叠加产能扩张,三全加速多元化增长布局
Orient Securities· 2025-08-04 11:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is accelerating its diversification growth strategy through overseas expansion and capacity expansion, particularly with the establishment of a production base in Australia [1][8] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downward due to unexpected pressure on performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.65, 0.76, and 0.88 yuan respectively [2][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the restructuring of its e-commerce and KA channels, as well as the localization strategy in overseas markets, which may open new growth opportunities [2][9] Financial Information Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 7,056 million yuan, with a projected decline of 5.1% year-on-year. The revenue is expected to recover gradually, with growth rates of 3.2%, 4.5%, and 4.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11] - Operating profit for 2023 is 951 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. The operating profit is expected to recover to 697 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 4.8%, 18.9%, and 14.8% for the following years [4][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 749 million yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, with projections of 568 million yuan in 2025 and growth rates of 4.7%, 18.4%, and 14.5% for the subsequent years [4][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 25.8% in 2023, decreasing to 24.1% in 2025, before recovering to 26.2% by 2027 [4][11] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is set at 18 times, corresponding to a target price of 11.70 yuan [2][9]