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友邦保险(1299.HK):中期股息每股同比+10% 内地新拓展市场25-30年NBV复合增速目标为40%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 12:00
Core Viewpoint - The company benefited from rapid growth in its Hong Kong and Thailand operations, with a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for the first half of the year, alongside growth in annualized new premiums and NBVM [1][2][4] Group 1: NBV Performance - The company's NBV for the first half of the year reached $2.838 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with annualized new premiums up 8% and NBVM increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][3] - Growth in NBV was primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, while the mainland China business saw a decline due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2][3] - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 24% to $1.063 billion, with both local customers and mainland visitors contributing to double-digit growth [2][3] - Thailand's NBV rose by 35% to $522 million, driven by a one-time sales boost before new co-payment regulations took effect in March 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Mainland China Business - The mainland China business experienced a 4% decline in NBV to $743 million, primarily due to changes in economic assumptions; however, excluding this impact, NBV grew by 10% [3] - New regions established since 2019 showed strong growth, with a 36% increase in NBV for these areas in the first half of the year [3] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in NBV for new regions from 2025 to 2030, with plans to open 1-2 new regions each year [3] Group 3: Operating Profit - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to $3.609 billion, with earnings per share growing by 12% [4] - Strong business quality was reflected in the increase of CSM amortization and positive operating variances, which contributed to a 19% rise in insurance service performance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% to $2.534 billion, primarily due to a 51.5% increase in financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 49.00 Hong Kong cents per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, and completed a $1.6 billion share buyback on July 14 [5][6] - The free surplus generated in the first half of the year was $2.430 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Since 2022, the company has returned $22.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 13% [6] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company maintains a high level of shareholder returns while anticipating future growth, with projected NBV of $5.449 billion, $5.941 billion, and $6.493 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The company has set a target valuation of 1.55x PEV for 2025E, corresponding to a reasonable target price of HKD 85.3, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]